Expected Value (EV)
The average amount you expect to win or lose on a decision over time. A +EV decision is profitable long-term; a -EV decision loses money.
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What Is Expected Value (EV)?
EV is calculated by weighting each possible outcome of a decision by its probability and summing the results, giving a single number representing the long-run profitability of that decision. Because poker involves significant short-term variance, a correct +EV decision can still lose in any individual hand, which is why professional players focus on making the highest EV decision available rather than judging choices solely by their immediate outcome.
Examples
Calling an all-in with a 60% chance to win a $100 pot is a +EV decision, even if you happen to lose that particular hand.
A player calculates that bluffing in a specific spot has a positive EV because their opponent folds often enough to make up for the times the bluff is called.
Strategy Tips
Focus on the quality of your decision-making process rather than short-term results, since even the best +EV plays will sometimes lose due to variance. Use tools like solvers, equity calculators, and hand history reviews to estimate the EV of close decisions away from the table. Avoid results-oriented thinking, where a losing outcome on a correct decision leads you to wrongly conclude the play was wrong. Build a habit of mentally estimating EV in real time at the table by weighing your win probability against the pot size and cost to continue.