Variance
The statistical measure of how much your results fluctuate from your expected value. Poker has inherently high variance.
iGaming Journalist & Crypto Casino Analyst
What Is Variance?
Even with a positive long-term win rate, variance means a player can experience extended losing stretches purely due to the natural fluctuation of card outcomes. Understanding variance is essential for proper bankroll management, since a player needs enough of a buffer to survive normal downswings without going broke.
Examples
A player with a strong long-term win rate still losing money over a sample of a few thousand hands due to variance.
Tournament poker having much higher variance than cash games because of the top-heavy payout structure.
Strategy Tips
Maintain a bankroll large enough to withstand normal variance for the stakes and format you play, since even correct decisions can lose in the short term. Use a large enough sample size, often tens of thousands of hands or more, before drawing firm conclusions about your actual win rate. Separate results-based thinking from decision-based thinking -- evaluate whether you made the right choice given the information available, not just whether the hand won. Recognize that tournaments and short-stack formats like hyper-turbos carry significantly higher variance than deep-stacked cash games, and plan your bankroll accordingly.