Prediction Markets — Trade on Real-World Events

A prediction market is an exchange where you buy and sell contracts on real-world events. Each contract trades between 1¢ and 99¢, with the price reflecting the crowd's estimated probability. If the event occurs, Yes contracts pay out $1.00. If it doesn't, No contracts pay $1.00. You can trade in and out of positions at any time before the event resolves.

Yes. CFTC-regulated exchanges like Kalshi operate legally in the United States. Kalshi received its Designated Contract Market designation from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2020 and is subject to the same federal oversight as major futures exchanges.

Prediction markets use a peer-to-peer exchange model where traders set prices, rather than a bookmaker setting odds. There is no house edge or vig — just a small exchange fee (typically 1–7¢ per contract on Kalshi). You can also exit positions before events resolve, and trade on categories like politics and economics that sportsbooks don't cover.

You can trade with as little as $1. Individual contracts cost between 1¢ and 99¢, so a single position can cost under a dollar. Most traders start with $20–$100 to build diversified positions across multiple markets.

Kalshi is the first and only CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange in the United States. Founded in 2020 and headquartered in New York City, Kalshi offers 500+ active markets across sports, politics, economics, weather, crypto, and culture. It became the Official Prediction Markets Partner of FIFA World Cup 2026 and has attracted over 3 million new users through its sports markets.

Yes — if your forecast is more accurate than the market price, you can profit. Buy a Yes contract at 30¢ on an event you believe has a higher probability than 30%. If the event occurs, you receive $1.00 per contract, netting 70¢ profit. You can also sell your position before the event resolves if the price moves in your favor.

Kalshi charges exchange fees of 1–7¢ per contract, depending on the contract price. There is no deposit fee, no withdrawal fee for most methods, and no monthly subscription. Fees are transparently displayed before every trade, and the average effective fee rate works out to approximately 1.4% of contract value.