Preflop Poker Equity Matchups: 25 Exact Calculations

This preflop poker equity matchup reference lists the exact all-in equity for 25 common Texas Hold'em heads-up confrontations, from pocket aces against kings to ace-king against pocket deuces. Every figure was computed by brute-force enumeration of all 1,712,304 possible five-card boards, so none of the numbers is an estimate. Use it to check solver output, build intuition for races and dominated hands, or cite precise equities in your own work.

Key Findings

• Pocket aces win 81.06% against kings (A♥A♠ vs K♦K♣) and 91.95% against ace-king offsuit.
• The classic "coin flip" is slightly tilted: QQ beats AKs 53.59% to 46.02%, and 22 vs AKs is a true flip at 49.60% to 49.77%.
• A dominated hand such as AQo against AKo wins only 22.97% of the time, with 4.68% ties.

Why Exact Preflop Equity Matters

Equity is the share of the pot a hand is expected to win if all remaining cards are dealt with no further betting. It underpins pot-odds decisions, all-in calls, and the construction of every preflop range. Rules of thumb such as "a pair is a 55/45 favourite over two overcards" are useful, but they hide variation of several percentage points depending on the ranks and suits involved. This study replaces the rule of thumb with exact numbers. To apply equity to a decision in real time, try our equity calculator, and for the strategic framework around it, read the guide to GTO versus exploitative play.

The Size of the Starting-Hand Universe

A Hold'em player is dealt two cards from 52, which gives 1,326 distinct two-card combinations. Wikipedia's reference on starting hands groups them into 169 strategically distinct hands: 13 pocket pairs, 78 suited combinations of ranks and 78 offsuit combinations of ranks. Pocket pairs account for 78 of the 1,326 combinations (six per rank), which is about 5.88% or 1 in 17 deals. Offsuit non-paired hands make up 70.59% of all deals. Each matchup in this study fixes two specific hands, which leaves 48 unseen cards and C(48,5) = 1,712,304 equally likely boards.

Methodology

We wrote a C program that deals every possible five-card board from the 48 remaining cards for each matchup, evaluates the best five-card hand from each player's seven cards (two hole cards plus the board), and tallies wins, losses and ties. A tie counts as a split pot in the "tie" column and is not added to either win percentage; to convert to pot equity, add half the tie percentage to each player's win percentage. Hand evaluation covers straight flushes, quads, full houses, flushes, straights (including the wheel), trips, two pair, pairs and high card, with kickers.

We validated the program against widely known benchmarks before running the matchups: QQ against AKs came out at 53.59% to 46.02%, matching the familiar "about 54/46" result, and AA against 72o at 87.24% matches the commonly cited roughly 87%. Because every board is enumerated, there is no sampling error, and each row sums to 100% (win + lose + tie) within rounding.

Limitations: the results are heads-up and all-in preflop only, with no folds and no postflop betting. Suit assignments matter by a fraction of a percentage point; we list the exact cards used. One matchup is shown with two suit assignments so you can see the effect. Real equity realization at the tables differs from raw equity because of position, stack depth and betting.

Pair Against Pair

The largest, cleanest edge in Hold'em is a higher pair against a lower pair. The underdog has two outs to make a set on the flop, or must catch a running pair of runner cards, and wins less than one time in five.

Matchup	Exact cards	First hand wins	Second hand wins	Tie
AA vs KK	A♥A♠ vs K♦K♣	81.06%	18.55%	0.38%
AA vs KK (suits overlap)	A♥A♠ vs K♥K♠	82.36%	17.09%	0.54%
QQ vs JJ	Q♥Q♠ vs J♦J♣	81.10%	18.54%	0.36%

Two points stand out. First, aces against kings is 81.06% for the favourite with non-overlapping suits, which sits inside the commonly quoted low-80s range. Second, suit overlap matters: when the kings share suits with the aces (A♥A♠ vs K♥K♠), the aces' edge rises to 82.36% because the underdog loses flush-draw equity. A gap of 1.3 percentage points from a suit assignment alone is large enough to change a close call.

Domination: Sharing a Card Is Costly

When two hands share a rank, the dominated hand is in far worse shape than its raw strength suggests. The weaker kicker is effectively drawing to three outs.

Matchup	Exact cards	First hand wins	Second hand wins	Tie
AA vs AKs	A♥A♠ vs A♦K♦	87.23%	11.51%	1.26%
AA vs AKo	A♥A♠ vs A♦K♣	91.95%	6.80%	1.25%
KK vs AKo	K♥K♠ vs A♦K♣	69.61%	29.60%	0.79%
AKo vs AQo	A♥K♣ vs A♦Q♣	72.35%	22.97%	4.68%
AKs vs AQs	A♥K♥ vs A♦Q♦	69.16%	26.61%	4.23%
AKo vs KQo	A♥K♣ vs K♦Q♣	74.30%	24.53%	1.17%

What the Domination Numbers Tell Us

1. AKo versus AQo wins 72.35%. The dominated AQo wins only 22.97%, and 4.68% of boards chop, mostly when the board plays the ace-high with a shared kicker or the board produces a straight.
2. Suitedness shifts little. AKs against AQs is 69.16% to 26.61% (4.23% ties), which is a slightly smaller edge than the offsuit version; the suited underdog has some added flush potential.
3. Kings are vulnerable to one ace. K♥K♠ against A♦K♣ is 69.61% to 29.60%. Because the opponent holds a king, only one king remains in the deck for a set, while any of the three remaining aces gives the opponent top pair.
4. Aces dominate everything, but not equally. AA against AKs is 87.23% and against AKo 91.95%. The offsuit hand shares only the ace and has less flush potential than the suited hand, which is why the edge is about 4.7 points larger.

Practical implication: many players overvalue "ace-rag" and king-queen hands in multiway or 3-bet pots because they look strong. Against a range of premium aces, the dominated hand regularly needs to hit a rare out. For range construction, compare hand rankings with the equity numbers above.

The Classic Races

A "race" is a pair against two overcards. The conventional wisdom is 55/45 in favour of the pair, and the exact data shows how accurate that is.

Matchup	Exact cards	First hand wins	Second hand wins	Tie
QQ vs AKs	Q♥Q♠ vs A♦K♦	53.59%	46.02%	0.39%
QQ vs AKo	Q♥Q♠ vs A♦K♣	56.99%	42.66%	0.34%
88 vs AKo	8♥8♠ vs A♦K♣	55.42%	44.28%	0.30%
TT vs AQo	T♥T♠ vs A♦Q♣	57.20%	42.50%	0.30%
22 vs AKo	2♥2♠ vs A♦K♣	52.75%	46.67%	0.58%
22 vs AKs	2♥2♠ vs A♦K♦	49.60%	49.77%	0.63%
KQo vs 22	K♥Q♣ vs 2♦2♣	48.38%	50.73%	0.90%

Pairs are indeed modest favourites, but the margin depends on both the pair and the overcards. Queens beat A♦K♦ 53.59% of the time and beat A♦K♣ 56.99%. The 3.4 point gap comes from suitedness: the suited overcards gain flush-making boards. Eights beat AKo 55.42%, tens beat AQo 57.20%, and deuces beat AKo 52.75% but fall to a coin flip against AKs (49.60% to 49.77%, with 0.63% ties). When the pair is weak enough and the overcards are suited, the "favourite" label disappears entirely. K♥Q♣ against 2♦2♣ is the weaker-overcard version: the deuces are a 50.73% favourite with a 0.90% tie rate.

Crushing Weak Hands (and the Upset Rate)

A premium hand against trash looks like a lock until you enumerate the boards. Pocket aces against 72 offsuit lose 12.40% of the time, which is more than one time in eight.

Matchup	Exact cards	First hand wins	Second hand wins	Tie
AA vs 72o	A♥A♠ vs 7♦2♣	87.24%	12.40%	0.36%
AA vs 76s	A♥A♠ vs 7♦6♦	76.81%	22.87%	0.32%
98s vs AA	9♥8♥ vs A♦A♣	22.47%	77.22%	0.30%
AKo vs 32o	A♥K♣ vs 3♦2♣	65.68%	33.74%	0.58%

A♥A♠ against 7♦6♦ is 76.81% to 22.87%. The suited connector's straight and flush potential cuts the aces' edge by more than ten points compared with 72o. Meanwhile, even the much-maligned A♥K♣ against 3♦2♣ is only 65.68% to 33.74%, because small cards can make pairs, straights and wheel draws against ace-high. This is why shortstack and push-fold strategies include so many hands: even the worst starting hands retain substantial equity.

Suited Connectors Against Ace-High and Pairs

Suited connectors are rarely favourites preflop, but they stay close to even against overcards and show why they are popular implied-odds hands.

Matchup	Exact cards	First hand wins	Second hand wins	Tie
JTs vs AKo	J♥T♥ vs A♦K♣	40.97%	58.61%	0.42%
76s vs AKo	7♥6♥ vs A♦K♣	42.06%	57.55%	0.38%
AKo vs 87s	A♥K♣ vs 8♦7♦	57.91%	41.71%	0.38%
99 vs 87s	9♥9♠ vs 8♦7♦	80.77%	18.64%	0.58%

J♥T♥ against A♦K♣ is 40.97% to 58.61%, and 7♥6♥ against A♦K♣ is 42.06% to 57.55%. Notice that the lower connector (76s) has slightly more equity than the higher connector (JTs) against ace-king. We did not model why; one plausible factor is that 76s has more straight combinations that do not run into the ace and king, but the enumeration itself only shows the result. Against pairs, a smaller pair such as 99 beats 87s 80.77% to 18.64%, which matches the rule that a pair is roughly 4-to-1 against an underpair-sized suited connector.

Other Common Matchups

Matchup	Exact cards	First hand wins	Second hand wins	Tie
AJo vs KQs	A♥J♣ vs K♦Q♦	55.62%	43.94%	0.44%
A5s vs KQo	A♥5♥ vs K♦Q♣	60.38%	39.16%	0.45%

AJo beats KQs 55.62% to 43.94% because the ace is a stronger top card, even though the suited hand has flush and straight potential. A♥5♥ (A5s) beats K♦Q♣ 60.38% to 39.16%, which helps explain why A5s is a common 3-bet bluff candidate: it has solid equity against a typical king-queen calling range while blocking ace-x hands.

Reading the Tables Correctly

Three conventions apply throughout. First, the "first hand wins" and "second hand wins" columns refer to the hands in the order listed in the matchup name, so in 98s vs AA the 98s column is the small number. Second, the tie column matters most for dominated hands that share a kicker, where chopped pots are common. Third, every row uses specific suits, because the combinatorial class (for example, "aces versus kings") actually contains 36 suit combinations whose equities differ slightly. The values here are therefore best read as precise examples of each class rather than class averages. If you need an average across all suit combinations, run each combination through the equity calculator and weight them equally.

How to Use This Data at the Table

1. Convert win and tie percentages to pot equity. Equity = win% + tie%/2. For example, AKo versus AQo gives AKo 72.35% + 4.68%/2 = 74.69%.
2. Compare equity with pot odds. If you must call 100 to win 200 (2:1 against), you need at least 33.3% equity. QQ against AKs easily clears that, but AQo against AKo (about 25.3% equity) does not.
3. Account for dominated ranges. Against a 4-bet range, KQo may be competing for equity with hands that dominate it, so raw equity against a random hand overstates its value.
4. Remember run-out variance. An 82% favourite still loses almost once in five all-ins; over 100 such spots, expect roughly 18 losses with a standard deviation near 4.

For broader strategy, browse our poker strategy hub or sharpen your fundamentals in the beginner course.

Frequently Asked Questions

How often do pocket aces beat pocket kings?

With non-overlapping suits, A♥A♠ beats K♦K♣ 81.06% of the time, loses 18.55% and ties 0.38%. If the kings share suits with the aces, the aces rise to 82.36%.

Is a pair versus two overcards really a coin flip?

Close, but not exactly. In our exact runs, pairs beat unsuited overcards between about 52.75% (22 vs AKo) and 57.20% (TT vs AQo). Against suited ace-king, deuces are 49.60% to 49.77%, a true coin flip.

Why does ace-queen lose so often to ace-king?

Because it is dominated. AKo beats AQo 72.35% to 22.97% with 4.68% ties, since AQo needs a queen, a runner-runner straight or a rare flush to overtake an opponent who shares its ace.

How were these equities calculated?

We enumerated all 1,712,304 five-card boards for each fixed pair of hands and evaluated every showdown. There is no random sampling, so the numbers are exact for the card suits listed.

Do suits change preflop equity?

Yes, by small amounts. For aces versus kings, shared suits change the equity from 81.06% to 82.36%. Suited hands gain flush equity, which is why QQ is a 56.99% favourite over AKo but only 53.59% over AKs.

Sources

• Wikipedia: Texas hold 'em starting hands (169 distinct hands, 1,326 combinations, pair frequencies)
• DeucesCracked Editorial: exact enumeration of 1,712,304 boards per matchup (original calculation, October 2026)

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