Gaming Executive Confidence Hits Three-Year High, AGA Finds

Senior executives across the US gaming industry are more optimistic than at any point in roughly three years, according to a new American Gaming Association survey — but the same executives are flagging prediction markets as an emerging competitive and regulatory threat that did not appear in sentiment data at all two years ago.

More than 60% of senior gaming executives told the AGA they expect higher revenue and stronger balance sheets over the next 12 months, marking the most positive industry sentiment reading since the third quarter of 2023. Here is what that confidence is built on, and what the same survey suggests the industry is worried about.

AGA Executive Sentiment 2026: The Quick Answer

An American Gaming Association survey found more than 60% of senior gaming executives expect higher revenue and stronger balance sheets over the next 12 months — the most positive sentiment since Q3 2023. Executives simultaneously identified prediction markets as a growing competitive and regulatory pressure point on the industry.

What Is Driving the Optimism

Online casino revenue growth

The iGaming vertical has been the industry's most reliable growth engine. In the seven states with fully legal online casinos — New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan, West Virginia, Connecticut, Delaware, and Rhode Island — revenue has grown consistently while land-based results have been closer to flat. Online casino carries higher margins than retail gaming and requires far less capital expenditure.

Sports betting maturity

The most expensive phase of the sports betting expansion — the customer acquisition war, where operators spent aggressively on promotional offers to build market share — has largely concluded. Promotional spend as a percentage of handle has come down, which means the same revenue now converts to considerably more profit.

Cost discipline

Several years of operational consolidation across the sector have reduced overhead. Executives reporting stronger balance sheet expectations are frequently describing the effect of debt reduction and reduced promotional intensity rather than pure top-line growth.

Regulatory stability in core markets

The established online casino and sports betting states have settled into predictable regulatory rhythms. Predictability is worth a great deal to capital-intensive businesses, even when the rules themselves are strict.

The Prediction Markets Problem

The counterweight in the survey is prediction markets, and the concern executives express operates on two levels.

Competitive pressure

Sports event contracts offered through federally regulated prediction market platforms deliver an experience functionally similar to sports betting — take a position on an outcome, profit if correct — while operating under a different regulatory regime. That regime carries different tax treatment, different licensing costs, and national rather than state-by-state availability.

For a licensed sportsbook that paid substantial licensing fees and pays state gaming taxes on revenue, a competitor offering a comparable product without those costs is a structural disadvantage, not merely an additional competitor.

Regulatory uncertainty

The legal status of sports prediction markets remains genuinely unsettled. In April 2026, the federal government filed a lawsuit against Connecticut, Arizona, and Illinois challenging those states' cease-and-desist orders against platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket — an unusual posture in which federal authority is asserted against state gaming enforcement.

Until courts resolve whether these contracts fall under federal commodities jurisdiction or state gaming authority, operators cannot plan around the outcome. That uncertainty is itself a cost.

Reading Sentiment Surveys Correctly

Executive sentiment data is useful but requires interpretation. A few caveats worth holding:

• Sentiment is not a forecast. It measures what decision-makers believe, which correlates with future investment decisions but not necessarily with actual results.
• Response bias is real. Executives publicly forecasting decline about their own sector is rare, so the baseline reading skews positive.
• Aggregate figures hide dispersion. A 60% positive reading means 40% are neutral or negative, and those may be concentrated in specific verticals — regional land-based casinos, for instance, face very different conditions than digital-first operators.

The more informative signal is usually the direction of change and what executives name as risks, rather than the headline percentage.

What Else Is on the Industry's Risk List

Beyond prediction markets, several pressures are shaping the 2026 environment:

• Tax increases. Multiple states have raised or proposed raising gaming tax rates, and international markets have moved in the same direction. Tax changes hit operator margins directly and immediately.
• Sweepstakes enforcement. The unlicensed and grey-market sector is under sustained legal pressure, which benefits licensed operators competitively but keeps the broader category in headlines.
• Sports integrity. A series of betting-related scandals across leagues has intensified regulatory focus on market integrity, prop bet availability, and monitoring obligations.
• Advertising restrictions. Several states have introduced or passed restrictions on gambling advertising, following a trend well established in European markets.
• Responsible gambling investment. Operators are expanding responsible gaming programs, partly from genuine commitment and partly because demonstrated investment is increasingly a licensing consideration.

What It Means for Players

Industry sentiment is not an abstraction — it translates into concrete changes in the products available to consumers.

• Reduced promotional intensity. The end of the acquisition war means welcome offers are smaller and carry stricter terms than they did three years ago.
• More product investment. Profitable operators invest in platform quality, game libraries, and live dealer infrastructure rather than pure customer acquisition.
• More options, different regulators. Prediction markets expand consumer choice, but the protections that apply to a federally regulated event contract differ from those applying to a state-licensed sportsbook. Knowing which framework governs your account matters.
• Potential tax pass-through. Where state gaming taxes rise sharply, operators frequently respond by adjusting odds or reducing promotions rather than absorbing the cost.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did the AGA survey find about gaming executive sentiment?

More than 60% of senior gaming executives expect higher revenue and stronger balance sheets over the next 12 months, described as the most positive industry sentiment since the third quarter of 2023.

Why are prediction markets a concern for gaming operators?

Sports prediction markets offer an experience functionally similar to sports betting while operating under federal commodities regulation rather than state gaming licensure — meaning different tax treatment, different licensing costs, and broader geographic availability.

Is the legal status of prediction markets settled?

No. Litigation is ongoing, including an April 2026 federal lawsuit against Connecticut, Arizona and Illinois challenging state cease-and-desist orders against prediction market platforms. Courts have not definitively resolved the jurisdictional question.

How many states have legal online casinos?

Seven states have fully operational legal online casinos: New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan, West Virginia, Connecticut, Delaware, and Rhode Island. Maine has authorized iGaming but has not yet launched.

Does positive executive sentiment mean better offers for players?

Not necessarily. Optimism driven by reduced promotional spending can mean smaller welcome offers, though it also typically means more investment in product quality, game libraries, and platform reliability.

Confidence With an Asterisk

The gaming industry enters late 2026 more confident than it has been in three years, built on iGaming growth, a maturing sports betting business, and improved cost discipline. The asterisk is that the most significant competitive threat executives identify is one whose legal status nobody can currently predict.

Stay current on the regulatory and market developments shaping US gaming with our latest articles, or explore gambling guides covering how these markets work state by state at DeucesCracked.