The Conn Smythe Trophy is the NHL's playoff MVP award, and it has become one of the most volatile futures markets in hockey betting. As the 2026 Stanley Cup Final approaches, Sebastian Aho leads the Conn Smythe Trophy futures at +400, but a deep field of contenders behind him — and a historically underpriced goalie market — is producing some of the strongest value betting opportunities of the entire postseason.
Quick answer: Sebastian Aho is the 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy favorite at +400 as of May 23, followed by Cale Makar (+500), Nathan MacKinnon (+600), Frederik Andersen (+700), Adin Hill (+900), Cole Caufield (+1200), and Jack Eichel (+1500). Goalies are historically underpriced in this market: three of the last seven Conn Smythe winners were goaltenders, but Andersen and Hill collectively imply only an 18% chance compared to the historical 43% rate.
Updated Conn Smythe Trophy Odds Board
Conn Smythe Trophy futures across major sportsbooks as of May 23, 2026:
- Sebastian Aho (CAR): +400
- Cale Makar (COL): +500
- Nathan MacKinnon (COL): +600
- Frederik Andersen (CAR): +700
- Adin Hill (VGK): +900
- Cole Caufield (MTL): +1200
- Jack Eichel (VGK): +1500
- Andrei Svechnikov (CAR): +1800
- Samuel Montembeault (MTL): +2200
- Mark Stone (VGK): +2500
Aho's installation at the top of the board reflects Carolina's emergence as the championship favorite at +155 after Colorado's Game 1 loss to Vegas. As the Eastern Conference Final progresses, his price could shorten dramatically with strong Game 3 and 4 performances.
Why the Conn Smythe Is Hockey's Most Interesting MVP Market
The Conn Smythe Trophy is awarded to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team in the playoffs. Unlike the NBA Finals MVP, the Conn Smythe can be (and has been) awarded to a player from the losing team — Reggie Leach in 1976 remains the only example, but the rule keeps the market more open than basketball's Finals MVP equivalent.
Three factors make the Conn Smythe market structurally interesting for bettors:
- It rewards full-postseason performance, not just Final series, so early-round dominance counts
- Goaltenders win at much higher rates than other positions (43% in the last seven Smythes)
- Conditional probability math means that backing a player on a +400 series-priced team can pay off compoundly
That makes line shopping and conditional thinking critical. The same bet structure (e.g., a Carolina forward at +400 to +800) can have wildly different expected values depending on which player and which book the price comes from.
Sebastian Aho: The Case for the Favorite
Aho has been Carolina's most consistent offensive driver throughout the postseason, averaging 1.45 points per game across the first two rounds with strong even-strength scoring in addition to power play production. His combination of two-way play, faceoff efficiency, and three-zone responsibility maps directly to the historical Conn Smythe profile of a forward winner.
The Aho case has two compounding pieces: Carolina must win the Cup AND Aho must lead the team in MVP-relevant stats. At +400, the market implies a 20% probability. Adjusting for the Hurricanes' +155 championship implied probability (39%), the conditional likelihood of Aho winning Smythe given a Carolina championship is roughly 51%. That is plausible but not certain — Brent Burns, Andrei Svechnikov, and Andersen all have realistic paths to the trophy if their own narratives develop.
The Goalie Value Plays
The most underweighted position in the Conn Smythe market is consistently goaltending. Over the last seven Conn Smythe winners, three were goaltenders: Marc-Andre Fleury (2017), Jonathan Quick (2012), and Tim Thomas (2011), with several other goalie-runner-up finishes in between. Despite that 43% historical hit rate, the combined implied probability of goaltenders in the 2026 market (Andersen + Hill) is only 18%.
Specifically:
- Frederik Andersen (CAR) at +700: .932 save percentage through first two rounds, anchoring a Carolina defensive system that has dominated possession. If Carolina wins the Cup with goaltending performances that include a Game 7 shutout or a series-clinching shutout, Andersen could leapfrog Aho in voter consideration.
- Adin Hill (VGK) at +900: Hill posted a 38-save shutout in Game 1 against Colorado. His 2023 Cup-winning resume and Vegas's defensive structure put him in position to repeat. If Vegas upsets Colorado and wins the Cup as a +350 underdog, Hill's MVP probability shoots up.
The combined value play on goalies is to back both Andersen and Hill in proportion to their team's championship odds. A $50 split across the two ($25 each) covers two scenarios with significant asymmetric payoff.
Cale Makar: The Defenseman Wildcard
Cale Makar at +500 is the most interesting defenseman in the Conn Smythe market. Defensemen have historically been undervalued in Conn Smythe voting (only Bobby Orr, Larry Robinson, Brian Leetch, and a small group of others have won as defensemen), but Makar's offensive impact has been so dominant in the 2026 postseason that voters could be inclined to honor him in a Colorado Cup win.
Makar leads all defensemen with 18 points in 13 playoff games, including the highest 5-on-5 expected goals share of any blueliner in the postseason. If Colorado overcomes the 0-1 series deficit against Vegas and goes on to win the Cup, Makar's Conn Smythe case becomes very strong against MacKinnon's competing claim.
Long-Shot Conn Smythe Plays
Three long-shot Conn Smythe candidates offer asymmetric payoff if their teams advance:
- Cole Caufield (MTL) at +1200: Caufield has 11 goals in 13 playoff games. If Montreal upsets Carolina and wins the Cup as the lowest-priced finalist, Caufield's MVP probability could leap to single-digit pricing.
- Jack Eichel (VGK) at +1500: Eichel has been Vegas's offensive engine all postseason. A Vegas Cup win with Eichel leading the playoff scoring chart would make his MVP claim hard to ignore.
- Andrei Svechnikov (CAR) at +1800: The Hurricanes' second-leading scorer with a knack for scoring in critical moments. If Aho's production cools in the Final, Svechnikov could emerge as the team's MVP candidate.
The structural appeal of these long shots is that they pay off in scenarios where the favored team and player combinations don't materialize. A $25 ticket on each of the three long-shot plays creates exposure to a meaningful set of Conn Smythe scenarios that the favorite-leaning market underprices.
How to Bet the Conn Smythe Strategically
The most effective Conn Smythe betting approach uses a two-step probability framework:
- Estimate each team's Stanley Cup win probability based on current series prices
- Within each winning team scenario, identify the player most likely to win MVP
For example, if Carolina is implied 39% to win the Cup and Aho has a 50% chance of being team MVP if Carolina wins, his fair Conn Smythe probability is roughly 19.5%, slightly below the +400 implied 20%. That suggests Aho is fairly priced. Wembanyama-style asymmetric value sits on goalies and the long-shot Montreal/Vegas plays where the conditional probabilities meaningfully exceed the implied market pricing.
For more on probabilistic betting frameworks, our betting fundamentals guide covers conditional probability math and expected-value analysis applied to hockey futures.
Where to Find the Best Conn Smythe Prices
NHL futures markets have meaningful price variance across sportsbooks during the conference finals because hockey props receive less line attention than NBA equivalents. Recommended books for Conn Smythe line shopping:
- DraftKings review typically lists the deepest market including 20+ candidates
- FanDuel review offers competitive top-5 favorite pricing
- Caesars review runs frequent NHL boosts during conference finals
- bet365 review is particularly strong for Canadian bettors and Canadian-team contenders
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the Conn Smythe Trophy favorite for 2026?
Sebastian Aho of the Carolina Hurricanes leads the Conn Smythe futures at +400, followed by Cale Makar at +500 and Nathan MacKinnon at +600.
Can a player from the losing team win the Conn Smythe?
Yes, technically — the rule allows it. Reggie Leach in 1976 remains the only player to win Conn Smythe from a losing Cup Finalist team. The historical precedent is rare enough that betting strategies should treat it as a low-probability scenario.
How often do goaltenders win the Conn Smythe?
Three of the last seven Conn Smythe winners have been goaltenders (Fleury 2017, Quick 2012, Thomas 2011). Despite this 43% historical rate, the combined implied probability of the two top-priced goaltenders in 2026 (Andersen and Hill) is only 18%, suggesting structural undervaluation.
Where can I bet on Conn Smythe Trophy?
All major U.S. legal sportsbooks offer Conn Smythe futures markets, with the deepest pricing typically at DraftKings, FanDuel, and Caesars. Line shopping across books can produce 50-100 cents of price variation on the same candidate.
The Smythe Verdict
The 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy market combines a strong favorite (Aho), credible secondary options (Makar, MacKinnon), and meaningful long-shot value across goalies and underdog teams. The best betting approach is to think probabilistically and back combinations of players whose conditional probabilities meaningfully exceed their implied market pricing. For more on NHL playoff betting and the latest Cup Final coverage, visit our sports betting guide.
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