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value betting in live games.

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motienko

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2113 posts
Joined 03/2008

Just when I became proficient at value betting in shorthanded online games I was thrusted back into the live poker world. I have had a bit of difficulty knowing when and when not to v bet. I'll cut to the chase and post a hand. Live 8-16

Two laggy players limp in EP, a TAG overlimps in the CO, I raise on the button with KdQs, the SB calls and the BB folds.
This is only the 6th hand of a new game. The SB is unknown except for the fact that he hasn't played a hand yet.
The flop comes Qh8d3d. Checked to me and I bet, SB raises, and it is folded to the CO who calls, I call with the plan to raise a blank turn. BTW, besides a diamond, what other cards would you not be raising on the turn?

The turn is Qh8d3d9c. The SB bets, CO calls, and I decide that this is not such a bad card and raise. The SB tanks for about 10 seconds, shakes his head, and unhappily calls, CO calls.

The river is Qh8d3d9c2s. It is checked to me. Should I bet?

If this was online I would be feeling warm and fuzzy about my hand and this would be an easy bet. In this game I had visions of SB turning over 88 and saying, "wow you scared me" or maybe Q9, or AQ,AA,KK that he decided not to raise pre(I see this a ton in these games). On the other hand if I check, I could see him turn over QJ or QT(the fact that he tanked on the turn makes me think that these hands are less likely since this should be an easy call with the gutter and pair).

Posted almost 3 years ago

SIide

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2405 posts
Joined 12/2008

I'm confused, why do you think he'll tank call with a hand like 88, but snap call the turn with QJ? Doesn't make any sense to me.

Posted almost 3 years ago

motienko

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2113 posts
Joined 03/2008

I'm confused, why do you think he'll tank call with a hand like 88, but snap call the turn with QJ? Doesn't make any sense to me.



I was just talking about the hands I can beat on the river.

Posted almost 3 years ago

SIide

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2405 posts
Joined 12/2008

I get that, I'm just not sure why you chose to discount QJ/QT somewhat but not 88 because of the live tell. I mean we construct a range of hands we think villain has and try to determine our equity against that range to determine if we should value bet. I'm just confused why you think we should discount QJ/QT, but not 88 in his range because of his timing tell on the turn.

Posted almost 3 years ago

motienko

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2113 posts
Joined 03/2008

I get that, I'm just not sure why you chose to discount QJ/QT somewhat but not 88 because of the live tell. I mean we construct a range of hands we think villain has and try to determine our equity against that range to determine if we should value bet. I'm just confused why you think we should discount QJ/QT, but not 88 in his range because of his timing tell on the turn.



I only mentioned the 88s to get the point across that these passive villians can show up with hands like this sometimes on the river. I suppose we can pretend that I never mentioned the 88s. I thought this post made sense but maybe Im off somewhere.

Posted almost 3 years ago

Amaryllis

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431 posts
Joined 09/2007

motienko, this is your sixth hand at the table. Don't consider this as a tell at this point. I would vbet and feel pretty good about it.

Posted almost 3 years ago

grandmofftarkin

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495 posts
Joined 04/2011

I'm confused, why do you think he'll tank call with a hand like 88, but snap call the turn with QJ? Doesn't make any sense to me.


I completely agree with Slide. When I read the original post a couple of days ago, I thought it was contradictory to say villain was "good" enough to snap call with a gutter and pair, but “bad” enough to tank call with an over pair, two pair, or a set.

I only mentioned the 88s to get the point across that these passive villains can show up with hands like this sometimes on the river. I suppose we can pretend that I never mentioned the 88s.


I think what Slide was trying to point out was merely saying there are hands that crush you doesn’t mean they are in his range and the relevant portion from the original post might show your thought process, and range analysis, is possibly off and leading to this question. Anyway, looking to whether you should bet.

First, let’s be safe and say that SB could be calling the raise with a very wide range of hands. This includes any two suited cards which will put in both hands that beat you (Q3, Q8, and 83), but also random Qx suited hands that you still beat by the river. It could also be an "expert slow play" of JJ-AA. It doesn’t seem like pre flop actions help us too much.

Now if we just look at the flop play: he check raises your flop bet and you said you plan to raise any brick turn, but why? If you were raising for value on a brick turn, then does that mean you thought you had the best hand? I think your rationale behind this raise is super important to the rest of the decisions.

It looks like the villains actions before his turn call played the biggest part you questioning whether to bet the river, and I don’t blame you. Without a HUD, when a live player gives us information, we have to use it. But I think what matters more is your reason for raising the turn (and what you thought his hand range was on the flop). Like it was said, the live tell could mean a variety of things, from “wow, I guess my QT is no good” to “wow, I guess my 88 ran into an over set.” Since it is so early in the session, you can’t really be sure, and I would disregard his tank call and bet the river since there are hands I beat.

If you want to know what hands you beat, there are QJ, QT, random weaker Qx suited, busted diamonds that turned a pair or backdoor straight draw, 8x that got frisky and decided to knock out other players. Yes, I understand that some, or most, live villains don’t play this aggressively with marginal hands, but there are hands out there that you beat. If you want to go from the perspective that “live villains are passive and only raise with the goods” you can do so but I think that already answers your question. Plus, you could possibly earn an extra bet now while finding out—and if you get raised I’m pretty sure it’s an easy fold.

Posted almost 3 years ago

motienko

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2113 posts
Joined 03/2008

I completely agree with Slide. When I read the original post a couple of days ago, I thought it was contradictory to say villain was "good" enough to snap call with a gutter and pair, but “bad” enough to tank call with an over pair, two pair, or a set.
I think what Slide was trying to point out was merely saying there are hands that crush you doesn’t mean they are in his range and the relevant portion from the original post might show your thought process, and range analysis, is possibly off and leading to this question. Anyway, looking to whether you should bet.

First, let’s be safe and say that SB could be calling the raise with a very wide range of hands. This includes any two suited cards which will put in both hands that beat you (Q3, Q8, and 83), but also random Qx suited hands that you still beat by the river. It could also be an "expert slow play" of JJ-AA. It doesn’t seem like pre flop actions help us too much.

Now if we just look at the flop play: he check raises your flop bet and you said you plan to raise any brick turn, but why? If you were raising for value on a brick turn, then does that mean you thought you had the best hand? I think your rationale behind this raise is super important to the rest of the decisions.

It looks like the villains actions before his turn call played the biggest part you questioning whether to bet the river, and I don’t blame you. Without a HUD, when a live player gives us information, we have to use it. But I think what matters more is your reason for raising the turn (and what you thought his hand range was on the flop). Like it was said, the live tell could mean a variety of things, from “wow, I guess my QT is no good” to “wow, I guess my 88 ran into an over set.” Since it is so early in the session, you can’t really be sure, and I would disregard his tank call and bet the river since there are hands I beat.

If you want to know what hands you beat, there are QJ, QT, random weaker Qx suited, busted diamonds that turned a pair or backdoor straight draw, 8x that got frisky and decided to knock out other players. Yes, I understand that some, or most, live villains don’t play this aggressively with marginal hands, but there are hands out there that you beat. If you want to go from the perspective that “live villains are passive and only raise with the goods” you can do so but I think that already answers your question. Plus, you could possibly earn an extra bet now while finding out—and if you get raised I’m pretty sure it’s an easy fold.



Thanks for your response.

I think waiting for the turn to raise here is super standard since its pretty obvious that the TAG has a flush draw after he calls two bets on the flop. Im in position and I think its likely the SB will fire again on the turn. BTW, even though its only been 6 hands, I have an idea of the type of player the SB is based on his mannerisms and my experience of sizing people up pretty quickly. He is the tight, passive, and careful type who understands post flop concepts like how to protect your hand etc. He is probably not going to overplay his hand. I apologize for not including this in the original post.

Even if the SB had a lot of hands in his range would he call with all these hands on the river? Also, no one has mentioned that it is highly unlikely the TAG is going to call the river with anything worse. Therefore, I am only gaining one bet at most with a V bet. I realize this is significant but in conjunction with my read, which I also think is significant I think the river is a check.

In my experience, if a player has QJ or QT here and gets raised, they may not be happy, but they don't tank for 10 seconds, they get their money in there. I think it is possible he tanked with a set or two pair wondering if he should 3b. I thought his tank meant that he had a hand like AQ,KQ and was wondering if its worth it to call down

I raised the turn because I figured I was most likely ahead and could get value from two players. Once I got the read from SB and realized the TAG was not calling the river I started to reconsider the strength of my hand and the value of a bet on the river.

Posted almost 3 years ago

SIide

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2405 posts
Joined 12/2008

Why don't we simplify this some. Motienko, what specific range of hands do you think SB can have that will call the river that we a) beat & b) lose against? What specific hands (if any) do you think CO can have that will call a bet that we beat & what hands that we don't beat?

I think it will be easier for everyone to discuss potential ranges on the river once we get an overall idea of how you view your opponents ranges in this spot.

Posted almost 3 years ago




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