I'm confused, why do you think he'll tank call with a hand like 88, but snap call the turn with QJ? Doesn't make any sense to me.
I completely agree with Slide. When I read the original post a couple of days ago, I thought it was contradictory to say villain was "good" enough to snap call with a gutter and pair, but â€œbadâ€ enough to tank call with an over pair, two pair, or a set.
I only mentioned the 88s to get the point across that these passive villains can show up with hands like this sometimes on the river. I suppose we can pretend that I never mentioned the 88s.
I think what Slide was trying to point out was merely saying there are hands that crush you doesnâ€™t mean they are in his range and the relevant portion from the original post might show your thought process, and range analysis, is possibly off and leading to this question. Anyway, looking to whether you should bet.
First, letâ€™s be safe and say that SB could be calling the raise with a very wide range of hands. This includes any two suited cards which will put in both hands that beat you (Q3, Q8, and 83), but also random Qx suited hands that you still beat by the river. It could also be an "expert slow play" of JJ-AA. It doesnâ€™t seem like pre flop actions help us too much.
Now if we just look at the flop play: he check raises your flop bet and you said you plan to raise any brick turn, but why? If you were raising for value on a brick turn, then does that mean you thought you had the best hand? I think your rationale behind this raise is super important to the rest of the decisions.
It looks like the villains actions before his turn call played the biggest part you questioning whether to bet the river, and I donâ€™t blame you. Without a HUD, when a live player gives us information, we have to use it. But I think what matters more is your reason for raising the turn (and what you thought his hand range was on the flop). Like it was said, the live tell could mean a variety of things, from â€œwow, I guess my QT is no goodâ€ to â€œwow, I guess my 88 ran into an over set.â€ Since it is so early in the session, you canâ€™t really be sure, and I would disregard his tank call and bet the river since there are hands I beat.
If you want to know what hands you beat, there are QJ, QT, random weaker Qx suited, busted diamonds that turned a pair or backdoor straight draw, 8x that got frisky and decided to knock out other players. Yes, I understand that some, or most, live villains donâ€™t play this aggressively with marginal hands, but there are hands out there that you beat. If you want to go from the perspective that â€œlive villains are passive and only raise with the goodsâ€ you can do so but I think that already answers your question. Plus, you could possibly earn an extra bet now while finding outâ€”and if you get raised Iâ€™m pretty sure itâ€™s an easy fold.