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entelechy

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1245 posts
Joined 02/2007

@AGTJ -- I analyze political and public opinion polling data for a living. I used to work in DC as a full-time political pollster, but my work now is not directly for campaigns.

@Tuneman -- your assertion that all 7% of the people who chose Gary Johnson in a ballot test chose him because they knew exactly who he was and what he stands for is, to use your words, absurd. As Steppin Razor rightly points out, he's "not the other two guys" and that's all many people need to know on a forced-choice, three-way ballot test on a poll.

Finally, I think Ron Paul could definitely create huge issues for the GOP candidate in the fall should he run as an indie candidate. However, Gary Johnson will have almost no impact, barring some unforseen set of circumstances. You can't compare Johnson and Paul -- they are wildly different in their name identification, their credibility as candidates, and their fundraising and grassroots prowess. This isn't a knock on Gary Johnson, because I like Johnson quite a lot. It's just a statement of fact. If Paul were to endorse Johnson and campaign actively for him, that might change things. However, I don't see Paul cutting his own throat forever with the GOP (as well as his son's throat) to do that (or to run himself as a third-party). It could happen, but I place the odds at very low levels.

Posted over 2 years ago

Acombfosho

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3147 posts
Joined 06/2008

identifier

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2141 posts
Joined 07/2008

I used to be able to take the piss out of american politics, but the current shower of arseholes we've got to choose between over here would make me a bit of a hypocrite.

Posted over 2 years ago

Ass Get to Jigglin

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4276 posts
Joined 10/2010


In any case, Libertarians have historically not mattered at all in general elections and I don't think they get a boost from Ron Paul supporters because Ron Paul supporters are libertarians already. They may get a boost this cycle from the disaffection with their own party by the tea baggers, but I believe Ross Perot is the most successful modern 3rd party candidate and he got like 20%.



I think was Perot was polling in the lead at one point though, not sure about that though.

But the Libertarians could get a boost from Ron Paul if you look at the numbers. He gets 21% as a 3rd party, but Johnson only gets 9%. So clearly there's some discrepancy there.

Posted over 2 years ago

Ass Get to Jigglin

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4276 posts
Joined 10/2010

@AGTJ -- I analyze political and public opinion polling data for a living. I used to work in DC as a full-time political pollster, but my work now is not directly for campaigns.

@Tuneman -- your assertion that all 7% of the people who chose Gary Johnson in a ballot test chose him because they knew exactly who he was and what he stands for is, to use your words, absurd. As Steppin Razor rightly points out, he's "not the other two guys" and that's all many people need to know on a forced-choice, three-way ballot test on a poll.

Finally, I think Ron Paul could definitely create huge issues for the GOP candidate in the fall should he run as an indie candidate. However, Gary Johnson will have almost no impact, barring some unforseen set of circumstances. You can't compare Johnson and Paul -- they are wildly different in their name identification, their credibility as candidates, and their fundraising and grassroots prowess. This isn't a knock on Gary Johnson, because I like Johnson quite a lot. It's just a statement of fact. If Paul were to endorse Johnson and campaign actively for him, that might change things. However, I don't see Paul cutting his own throat forever with the GOP (as well as his son's throat) to do that (or to run himself as a third-party). It could happen, but I place the odds at very low levels.



That's a good point about Rand, I think Ron would be happy to go 3rd party or endorse 3rd party if it weren't for the fact that that might hurt Rand's political career. But Ron has shown inclination to put the country and what he feels is best for the country ahead of political gain. So since he really believes there's going to be another and much worse economic crisis within the next couple years if we continue down the path we are going, I wouldn't rule it out.

Posted over 2 years ago

entelechy

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1245 posts
Joined 02/2007

That's a good point about Rand, I think Ron would be happy to go 3rd party or endorse 3rd party if it weren't for the fact that that might hurt Rand's political career. But Ron has shown inclination to put the country and what he feels is best for the country ahead of political gain. So since he really believes there's going to be another and much worse economic crisis within the next couple years if we continue down the path we are going, I wouldn't rule it out.



But, crisis or no, what would it serve for him to run? He can't win. All he can do is play spoiler for Romney (assuming he's the nominee), which would leave Obama in charge again. Nader was willing to potentially sink the Democrat candidate when he ran, because Nader never considered himself part of the Democratic Party and because Nader was happy to be the Mayor of Bittertown. Paul, on the other hand, has worked extremely hard the last 5-6 years to position himself as a factor in GOP politics primarily for the purpose of advancing his ideas. Killing GOP chances at the White House through an independent run would absolutely finish him as a viable political figure outside of the extreme fringe of the conservative moment and invalidate a LOT of the momentum and support he's created within and among more mainstream conservatives. He could certainly choose to do it, but my personal opinion is that it's pretty unlikely.

Posted over 2 years ago

Tuneman07

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381 posts
Joined 06/2011

Ron Paul will never run 3rd party- I agree with the points being made on that. He has simply worked too hard to get to where he is as well as his son.

Gary Johnson has said he wants to run 3rd party and he has little to lose so I could definitely see him running. I guess if you are talking (entelechy) about him getting 7 percent on some generic ballot you are right there are probably a lot of people saying "I hate the other guys". In general though people who support Gary Johnson are paying way more attention than the average person.

The only people I know who know who Gary Johnson is are people who follow politics pretty closely.

BTW- If Gary Johnson ran as 3rd party do you really think Ron Paul supporters will vote for Romney? People who support Ron Paul hate everything Romney represents, I really think that a majority of the 10-15% of people who support Paul would have serious issues voting for Romney.

Posted over 2 years ago

Ass Get to Jigglin

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4276 posts
Joined 10/2010

Ron Paul will never run 3rd party- I agree with the points being made on that. He has simply worked too hard to get to where he is as well as his son.

Gary Johnson has said he wants to run 3rd party and he has little to lose so I could definitely see him running. I guess if you are talking (entelechy) about him getting 7 percent on some generic ballot you are right there are probably a lot of people saying "I hate the other guys". In general though people who support Gary Johnson are paying way more attention than the average person.

The only people I know who know who Gary Johnson is are people who follow politics pretty closely.

BTW- If Gary Johnson ran as 3rd party do you really think Ron Paul supporters will vote for Romney? People who support Ron Paul hate everything Romney represents, I really think that a majority of the 10-15% of people who support Paul would have serious issues voting for Romney.



Gary Johnson is running 3rd party already.

Posted over 2 years ago

entelechy

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1245 posts
Joined 02/2007

BTW- If Gary Johnson ran as 3rd party do you really think Ron Paul supporters will vote for Romney? People who support Ron Paul hate everything Romney represents, I really think that a majority of the 10-15% of people who support Paul would have serious issues voting for Romney.



I can tell you this -- unless voters have a real connection to a third-party candidate, they are often VERY reluctant to "throw their vote away" by casting a ballot for someone who they know cannot win. People who love Ron Paul REALLY love that dude -- they'd vote for him, regardless of who he was against, because it's a connection they have to him and to what he stands for and to what he's accomplished for his principles. Gary Johnson and the general Libertarian Party will get some of those Paul diehards, but not as many as you think. They simply don't have the cache built up to "automatically" command those pro-Paul (and anti-Romney conservative) voters. Unless Johnson can raise enough money and run a strong-enough campaign to reach out effectively to Paul sympathizers, he's not going to get a big chunk of those people.

Finally, it's been shown numerous times that many principled voters will simply not vote at all if they don't feel like they have an opportunity to cast a ballot that can make a difference and when faced with untenable choices. Sad, but there it is.

Posted over 2 years ago

Steppin Razor

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Section 9
2237 posts
Joined 12/2009

I want to post things but entelechy keeps saying them first.

Posted over 2 years ago

Pinko Panther

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371 posts
Joined 04/2011

I was pretty sure that I was not voting republican, even though Obama is not much better than Bush



How can anyone say stuff like this with a straight face? Americans (and yes I was born there) are the most politically confused advanced industrial nation in the world.

Posted over 2 years ago

Pinko Panther

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371 posts
Joined 04/2011

http://www.amazon.com/Best-Democracy-Money-Can-Globalization/dp/0452283914

free online here http://files.uniteddiversity.com/Decision_Making_and_Democracy/The_Best_Democracy_Money_Can_Buy.pdf



Greg Palast is great!

Posted over 2 years ago

TecmoSuperBowl

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Tribe Leader
5686 posts
Joined 01/2009

I want to post things but entelechy keeps saying them first.


I've always hated him for that reason.

Posted over 2 years ago

entelechy

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1245 posts
Joined 02/2007

I've always hated him for that reason.



It's nice to know I'm good for something on the forums. Smile

Posted over 2 years ago

Steppin Razor

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Section 9
2237 posts
Joined 12/2009

I've always hated him for that reason.


I would hate him too, but for his iron condom avatar. I don't want kids either!

Posted over 2 years ago




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