OMGClayDol begins his long journey towards a final table at the Sunday Million.
For all those moments when you are sitting down to an event with more than 9 players our Instructors help you with the decisions to cull out the weak and make the final table.
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if he calls your turn bet here, and checks the river how often are you 3-barrelling the river with just A-high? The only hand you beat that he folds in that situation is really just AK, but now you've built quite a nice pot so it seems like checking behind on the river is giving away soooo much money to all the thin value hands that have called you down the whole way. And if you are 3-barrelling the river a good amount of the time, how much are you betting to get all better (obvisously non-Q hands) to fold and stave off reshove bluffs?
Assuming he is a random player like I -think- he was, I would probably not barrel the river unless the flush gets there, and possibly Kx. He rarely has a flush draw and will probably believe us that we can have a flush or Qx (even though we in reality don't jam Qx if the flush gets there)
Would bet small for value on Ax, he will sigh/call smaller pairs cause of pot odds often enough and we are just so rarely beat. I most likely just check back on Jx although betting really small, like 1/3 pot may be fine too.. All of these are rather exploitable plays (as they are not balanced) but that doesn't matter if villain is a random. Vs. a reg, I would care a lot more about my entire range in the spot and how balanced it is.
If and when he check/calls turn he has showdown value that generally isn't going to fold often (especially since we don't have info, and can't assume he will fold hands like AA KK JJ TT etc that he plays like that on the turn. Occasionally he will also have a boat/quads. If draws miss people just don't believe you in general. Especially early on in the tourney a random will just call and put you on draws etc, later, especially rather deep it becomes a lot better to bluff as I think our fold equity increases dramatically as he will be more scared money, not wanting to bust etc.
Let me know if that answers your question ok
Anyone is obviously welcome to add any comments, questions or disagreements even.
The player behind is likely a recreational player and is unlikely folding top pair+ or a draw even if I raise. The only hands we "push him out of the pot" with are midpairs or weaker, and overall the extra value from draws/top pair means raising is more profitable. Sizing - keep in mind effective stack sizes, but generally just raise as much as he is willing to pay.