Very entertaining video.
At eleven minutes in (I'm not sure how to insert one of those cool dots on the time line yet.) There is a discussion of bet sizing on the turn, and if indeed checking is the right play. The board is 6 T Q J and hero holds K Q. There is 20.5K in the pot with 29.7 behind.
Jay says he's not crazy about jamming (the line he actually takes.) Flawless says something like if you bet half pot and he jams the EV between calling and folding will be close, so you've maneuvered yourself into a tricky spot.
I have a hard time wrapping my head around this hand. It seems to me like if the river is an offsuit 9 or A, putting a one card straight on board, you won't get paid by hands that are behind but would call a turn bet. And if the river is a club he'll have a pretty good bluffing opportunity. So I would bet here, but maybe that's too predictable or straightforward? And the option of betting half pot here, 15K, leaving yourself about 15 behind with a pot that will be 50 is a move that confuses me. Can you really make a bet that looks for all the world like you are pot committed and then fold? What hands would you do this with? Is there a way to balance this?
Really enjoyed this one.
It's not that the bet is predictable or straightforward, it's that all Patrik's hands that are worse than mine have a hard time calling a jam on the turn (since it is a crazy spot to bluff). We're saying that checking the turn might be best because of that but if checking isn't best then betting all-in isn't the best bet size. And Brian points out that betting smaller might not accomplish anything other than putting you in an EV neutral situation... so maybe checking really is best then.