WiltOnTilt's PlusEVPoker.com Blog

I don’t know about where you live, but where I live (Kansas City, MO) everyone always gets all CRAZY when it comes to weather. The local news sites like to work everyone into a frenzy with the next weather system that is going to reek havoc on the metro area. With the popularity of social networking, it has become even more out of hand.

It seems like at least once or twice per season, some horrible weather system is going to get us, whether it be rain or snow or heat or wind or whatever. It seems like more often than not, we are “severely” underwhelmed by the result of their predictions. If my hero call success rate in HUNL was as good as the KC meteorologists’ “severe winter weather” predictions, I’d be broke and looking for a stake. Get paid and never have to be right? MBN IMO 

Anyway, we’re supposed to get 9 inches of snow tomorrow. I set the over/under at 5.5. Obv this is still a lot of snow but come on…Panic need not set in.

Of course the snow is supposed to come on the one day per week where I actually make a point to leave the house (subtle brag? massive beat? you be the judge). Yes it’s the Wednesday night 10/20nl game at the local casino that I play in every week…which just so happens to correspond to the one night per week where I tweet a bunch (@wiltontilt fyi) since I’m bored to tears sitting there. Before I go do that though, I need to get some new tires for my ballin’ 2003 chevy blazer and head over to the bank to send a bank wire to harrahs for this weekend where a 50/100nl game is running (25k buyin). I’ll probably give myself two bullets and if I lose them I’ll be done. There are supposed to be some “biggish” poker names, including some wsop main event winners/final tablers so it should be fun. The last (and only) time they ran this game was back in November I think. We had a good turnout the first night it ran…2 tables of 7-9 or so. Unfortunately I was on a table that had the 5-6 toughest players on it. The second night only 7 or so people showed up so there was much less action. Too many people either got hurt too bad the first night or wanted to lock up a win I guess. I’m hoping this weekend will garner more action. Maybe I’ll run hot and everyone will get snowed into the casino.

Last time the game ran I ended up losing around 20k. Most of the losses hit the second night where I ran a big bluff in a 3bet pot when the guy turned top set. It was actually one of the most profitable bluffs in my poker career as I had the guys range at TT+ by the river in a preflop squeeze pot on a 8629Tr where I had called flop, raised turn, and bet river and I only risked like 1/3rd pot on the river expecting him to fold 24 combos and call with 3 combos, but alas 99 was in his range too after tank/calling my turn raise so really he actually had 24 combos to fold on the river and 6 combos to call with. heh…why not have it? 

I hope I can capitalize on my image against that player this go around.

That’s it for now. been busy busy busy around here. Tryin’ to start of 2011 right by getting some good grind time in. ran baddish the last cpl days online but made some good quits when I started to lose a few buyins where I probably would not have quit in 2010, so hopefully that’s some progress. It’s hard for me to rationalize quitting in good spots considering I’m in the business of risk management, but I’m trying to just listen to other people who say it’s good to quit when not on your A game, even if my B- game is good enough to win. It’s hard for me to convince myself of this, but even if I’m passing on some +EV situations, I’m trying to get better at maximizing my sanity EV.