Riding The Wave Of Variance.

This hand came up today. Villain schooled me and I have to tip my hat to him. Only played a few orbits together and he seemed like a very active and solid LAG. My image up until this point has probably been standard TAGish.   

Poker Stars $50.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 5 players - View hand 1137271
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

SB: $77.95
BB: $125.80
UTG: $125.00
Hero (CO): $75.00
BTN: $178.20

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with J T A K
1 fold, Hero raises to $2, BTN calls $2, 2 folds

Flop: ($4.75) Q 2 5(2 players)
Hero bets $4.00, BTN calls $4

Turn: ($12.75) 5(2 players)
Hero bets $8.00, BTN calls $8

River: ($28.75) 3(2 players)
Hero bets $15.00, BTN raises to $46.50, Hero folds

Final Pot: $58.75
BTN shows 5 8 7 A
(Rake: $2.50)

I went from depressed to impressed within a few seconds after seeing his hand. I then started trying to think about what tipped him off, because up until that point I had been fairly quiet and we hadn't tangled at all. While at first glance it looks like FPS spew, I think there's more to it, or at least I've convinced myself there's more to it. 

Flop and turn are pretty standard. I bet fairly quickly on the turn. Perhaps this signaled weakness because I think I'd take a bit longer if I had a boat or trips, determining the best size to keep any draws in. This is not something I usually worry about though, as the average villain at PLO50 will likely not be picking up timing tells like this. On the river I was really unsure of sizing and whether or not a bet against a competent player is even profitable, considering how we have the 2nd and 4th nut flush blocked. I decided to bet around half pot and intended on folding to a raise. From his perspective I think my hand looks like exactly what it is. My fairly quick turn barrel on the 5:club: combined with a half-pot value bet on a paired river looks like a big flush betting cautiously on a paired board. If I really did have a boat I should probably be betting bigger to get more value from flushes. 

While this situation will probably never come up again for a long time, it served as a wake up call for me to work on having a more balanced game. As you move up in stakes balance becomes more and more important and it's never too early to start incorporating it. I will continue to play fairly exploitable against clueless, fishy players where balance isn't really an issue. Against thinking players, though, I will try to be more aware of what information I may be giving away. I've got to admit this hand completely threw me off guard as this is certainly not standard leveling warfare for PLO50. Turning trips into a bluff on a 3-flush river is just super sick and not something I ever expected at these stakes.