November 13, 2011
Why HEM EV isnt 100% "correct"
I was feeling like crap when I was running like shit (under EV @ HEM)
Theses days, im feeling a little bit guilty to run ABOVE EV @ HEM
BUT, here the proof its somewhat rigged. When you play, you play vs a range, right ? HEM doesnt really seem to see it that way. JMO
According to HEM, with 93,1% Equity, its Minus EV to get it in (- 16,73$ ! )
IPoker Network $200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 2 players - View hand 1516559
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter
BB: $121.40
Hero (BTN/SB): $253.70
Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BTN/SB with Q
T
Hero raises to $6, BB raises to $10, Hero calls $4
Flop: ($20.00) 9 J 8(2 players)
BB bets $10.00, Hero raises to $30, BB raises to $50, Hero raises to $243.70, BB calls $61.40 all in
Turn: ($242.80) K(2 players - 1 is all in)
River: ($242.80) A(2 players - 1 is all in)
Final Pot: $242.80
BB shows A J
Hero wins $241.80
(Rake: $1.00)
7 Comments:
duffte posted on November 13, 2011 at 23:07 PM
its not -ev, you won 17 more than your equity was
Squishee posted on November 13, 2011 at 23:39 PM
Im not sure I understand what you are trying to say duffte. Are we arguing in the same way ?
Lets do the math (bare with me, I dont do them normally)
To be honest, Im not sure where to start !
Anyway, I think we agree its not supposed to be minus EV, altought HEM say it is.
rapeface2k posted on November 14, 2011 at 01:17 AM
You have 93.1% eq. Your opponent have 6.9%, and this is the EVmoney that HEM says you are not expected to win.
mitch posted on November 14, 2011 at 03:10 AM
Yeah Hem isn't saying it's -EV to get it in, it's saying when you win (+$120) you ran $17 over EV... because getting it has an EV of $103 or something.
CivSTAR posted on November 14, 2011 at 11:31 AM
pot: 242,80
eq: 93,1
your share (x) = pot * eq = 226,05
EVmoney = x - pot = 226,05 - 242,8 = -16,75 (~16,73)
So you have won 16,73 more then you should have won
The important point is the EQ. If >50% then +ev, but even if EQ <50% your play can be +ev given FE vs the range of your opponent.
Squishee posted on November 14, 2011 at 17:57 PM
Ahhh ! There you go !
Got it, Thank to all, pretty simple.
So this $EV is not reflecting the actual EV or the move.
Also it doesnt really take into account the dynamic, etc
CivSTAR posted on November 14, 2011 at 20:17 PM
made a blogpost about $EV:
http://www.deucescracked.com/blogs/civstar/78351-aiev-and-a-interesting-hand
doesn't really shows everything in detail, but I think you can get some out of it and how to interpret the $ev
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