February 14, 2011
Been in godmode this month so far, up about $7500 playing mostly 10/20 TD (some 15/30 and 20/40), although played a bit of PLO and also binked a small tourney for $1700 on the one day I played tourneys. This is pretty great not even taking into account that I play about 2 hours per day.
I'm obviously running well but I also feel on top of my game. My TD game has evolved a lot in the past month; I realised that playing versus competent players is not about doing fantastic FPS spewy shit, complicated snows and rebluffs, but just about playing a really precise strategy that's mathematically balanced in most areas and letting your opponent spew off big bets through their own leaks/tilt. I feel I'm playing a lot closer to optimal than almost anyone at the same stake, while many will often do things which are just really wrong from a GTO perspective or otherwise, particularly players I used to respect as 'regs.'
I haven't managed to play much HU PLO recently (I always look for TD tables first and it's hard to multi-table TD and PLO), but I did play a bit today of 50c/$1 and made 5 BI or so. It's a really interesting game I think and there's a lot still to be figured out about preflop strategies, let alone post-flop play. I've been trying to think about the game more deeply, particularly considering how later street play affects early street play and how your equity doesn't necessarily dictate your play. Overall it's made me less peel happy in position (I used to never raise/fold OTB) which is a mistake versus players who are not straightforward passive; I learned this the hard way when really aggro players would put me in tough spots often with marginal holdings, situations that were created by optimistic calls earlier on in the hand. There are also situations where I would have previously jammed because of an equity edge which actually leads to bad situations on later streets when there is still a lot of money behind.
Quick maths question. Say you are on the river with a stack to pot of 4 and you decide to make a thin value bet, sized pot. You do this knowing that he can make a balanced c/r all-in bluff which has a ratio of value:bluffs of 2:1 so that you have to call the all-in once you make the bet. Also assume that he never calls a better hand than yours and never raises a worse hand: what does his calling:value raise ratio have to be in order for your line of bet/call to be correct?