Brags. Beats. Battlestar Galactica.

Been in godmode this month so far, up about $7500 playing mostly 10/20 TD (some 15/30 and 20/40), although played a bit of PLO and also binked a small tourney for $1700 on the one day I played tourneys. This is pretty great not even taking into account that I play about 2 hours per day.

I'm obviously running well but I also feel on top of my game. My TD game has evolved a lot in the past month; I realised that playing versus competent players is not about doing fantastic FPS spewy shit, complicated snows and rebluffs, but just about playing a really precise strategy that's mathematically balanced in most areas and letting your opponent spew off big bets through their own leaks/tilt. I feel I'm playing a lot closer to optimal than almost anyone at the same stake, while many will often do things which are just really wrong from a GTO perspective or otherwise, particularly players I used to respect as 'regs.'

I haven't managed to play much HU PLO recently (I always look for TD tables first and it's hard to multi-table TD and PLO), but I did play a bit today of 50c/$1 and made 5 BI or so. It's a really interesting game I think and there's a lot still to be figured out about preflop strategies, let alone post-flop play. I've been trying to think about the game more deeply, particularly considering how later street play affects early street play and how your equity doesn't necessarily dictate your play. Overall it's made me less peel happy in position (I used to never raise/fold OTB) which is a mistake versus players who are not straightforward passive; I learned this the hard way when really aggro players would put me in tough spots often with marginal holdings, situations that were created by optimistic calls earlier on in the hand. There are also situations where I would have previously jammed because of an equity edge which actually leads to bad situations on later streets when there is still a lot of money behind.

Quick maths question. Say you are on the river with a stack to pot of 4 and you decide to make a thin value bet, sized pot. You do this knowing that he can make a balanced c/r all-in bluff which has a ratio of value:bluffs of 2:1 so that you have to call the all-in once you make the bet. Also assume that he never calls a better hand than yours and never raises a worse hand: what does his calling:value raise ratio have to be in order for your line of bet/call to be correct?

So I didn't play much at all in the first half of January but then I picked up steam towards the second half. I ended up winning about 2500 plus another 600 worth in FPP accumulation. I'm hoping to pick up my hours a bit more next month, 

I've mostly been playing Triple Draw and I feel I've really improved my game a lot, particularly in HU. I think my main mistake before was being too 8 and 7 oriented, which works great 6 handed but ends up costing you a lot HU and lets you get run over. 

As a corollary, I don't think I've been enough 8 or 7 oriented recently when playing 6-handed, which is something I've been thinking a lot about. The main thing that is on my mind is the effect of card removal in a 6-handed game when a certain amount of people have folded. It's actually pretty interesting that none of the good triple draw players work on this level of maths and play primarily by their own experience and feel. The thing is card removal is huge in TD, much much bigger in any other game due to the nature of being able to pinpoint peoples' hands and cards better than any other game, but also how many cards are removed pre-draw, and it seems a shame that no one has yet tried to quantify it (especially as it wouldn't even be that hard for anyone used to this.)

When I say quantify, only a rough estimate will do. We don't need to get too bogged down in precise calculations when we are speculating on peoples' ranges so much in the first place. If we could estimate it well enough to say that the equity shift was something like 3-5% in a certain spot that could be enough to make certain plays become obvious raises/pats/breaks.

Something that is obvious is that the amount of 'hands' people get in a 6-handed game when it's a HU pot is going to be more frequent than in a HU match, but how much more? This could very well be the x factor when it comes to working out TD equities, when working out optimal lines in certain spots, yet I lack the mathematical capability of doing it myself, so it just becomes something to theorise about, while I'll generally to go back to being more 8 and 7 oriented in HU pots in 6-handed games.

Also, I did another TD video the other day. So feel free to leave any comments.

I did get to play some 6max PLO the other day, and the games were very good; a bunch of people playing very loose preflop and bad postflop. This was by far the biggest hand of the night.

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 Pot Limit Omaha Hi $0.20 Ante - 6 players - View hand 1138365
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG: $265.90
MP: $200.00
CO: $827.50
Hero (BTN): $332.90
SB: $101.50
BB: $306.90

Pre Flop: ($2.70) Hero is BTN with T 7 6 8
UTG raises to $4.70, 1 fold, CO calls $4.70, Hero calls $4.70, 1 fold, BB calls $3.70

Flop: ($20.50) 5 4 3(4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, CO bets $19

I actually hate my call pre here. This hand is really unplayable when opponents are aggressive post-flop because it just doesn't hit enough strong hands or draws to without any sort aggression; I always end up getting a bit button happy when deep which is a mistake (though way less of a mistake that playing a hand like this OOP.)

So I flop "the nuts," a phrase that is actually meaningless and misleading to the point that it can be dangerous. Everyone knows about the situation where on a JT7tt board with bare 98 where you can be 3-1 underdog versus a very strong draw, so the nuts can mean very different things for your equity and how you should play a certain hand.

So this isn't quite as bad as bare 98 on a JT7 board, for a few reasons:

a) it's low and therefore harder to hit in terms of sets and draws

b) the shape 543 means there are much fewer overstraight draws to a nut straight, making it impossible to be a huge favourite versus 76

c) someone could have a worse straight

d) I have an 8 for a redraw so I maintain the nuts on a 7 or a 6 and can outdraw bare 76.

Anyway, CO pots out; I didn't have many reads on him except that he was playing a ton of hands pre but was generally LP, so his range is pretty tight to pot out here 4 way. It's not exactly 76, it's probably not even mostly 76, but going up against 76 with a fd isn't our only worry. Getting in versus a hand like two pair + fd, set + fd isn't ideal because they are an equity favourite. We are probably pretty close versus his overall range here even if he decides to stack off with his weaker draws.  

Being deep makes this hand a lot more interesting. Best case scenario is that he has A2 or 62 and is drawing dead, but that's probably not that big a portion of his range and if I raise here, it's pretty likely I have 76 and he could end up making a correct fold. If there was only a pot raise left I'd just jam expecting A2 to call because he has committed himself, but the stacks are so deep that even a fish can get away. I would also be more liable to stack off badly on the turn when I only have a pot bet left if I call, though it's actually not a bad option to call, dodge a board changing card even with a pot sized bet left, simply because people will have hit that card so often. Being shorter though would make it easier for opponent to just shove the rest of their stack in blindly on a board pair or a flush card and I could end up making a mistake, while they will probably freeze up to protect their stack this deep if they didn't have it.

The main concept at play here that I've been thinking about is the draw vs made hand scenario, when equities are close between both parties yet turn distributions are completely different. If that hands were face up, the made hand is actually better off waiting for a turn in that situation, while the draw is actually inclined to get it all-in right now; the reason being that the made hand could fold when the draw made it and not lose anything, while if the draw doesn't make it on the turn he still has equity in the pot and the made hand can now charge him for it. This allows the made hand to get more money in ahead if he sees another street. It's much more complicated if the hands aren't face up obviously, because the made hand can't necessarily know when he's drawing dead on the turn, but it's still a very interesting result.

It applies somewhat here though, because I'm confident if I call and a club flush turns I can probably lose the minimum, because it's going to fill up so much of his range. A lot of players will be afraid to not get it in now because a club will come and they will no longer have the nuts. I don't think that's the correct way to think about it at all. This hand plays better if you don't get it in now, provided you don't get attached to this hand and make good folds later on. Meanwhile there is just no rush to get this hand in on the flop; you're not in that great shape and you still have a deep stack to play with if you call, see a turn.

Click the handconverter link to see what the result of the hand.

Been playing much more poker in the last week; mainly Triple Draw around 10/20. It's been pretty swingy, dropped as low as -3k in the space of a couple days then made it back in the two more days. I've been playing a ton of short-handed and HU and it's super interesting and fun. Even though I was downswinging I felt really confident in my game and wasn't tilting at all as I used to when I had swings at TD. 

When it comes to HU I think most people make a ton of mistakes, and it's been really fun trying to figure out how to exploit those mistakes, but also thinking about spots generally and what is probably the GTO solution, and when it's important to deviate from that and when you should just stick to what you think is close to optimal. 

Basically a pretty important motto for HU so far is never break in a big pot, and never fold for one more bet. I used to think that HU TD was all about making really fancy aggressive plays, which include super expensive snows and random spews, but it's not at all, and most people still think it is and they'll make too many bluffs which is pretty much hard countered by my "never break or fold" motto. I've generally just toned down the amount of snowing or FPS (though it's still very important for image) and just play more straightforwardly, picking the perfect amount of bets to get in in every situation while my opponent puts in too many or too few.  

The game is NLHE. You are playing HU and you have QQ in a $100 pot on a flop on QJT rainbow. Your opponent has AKo and both your hands are face up. You both have $100 left.

What is the correct play if opponent:

a) shoves?

b) checks?

c) bets $20?

This is what I've been doing instead.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-R5EjCj2S-g

Enjoy.

This question came up in a poker theory thread; the thread is a bit all over the place but I'm going to focus on this paragraph: 

"There are two conflicting ideas to consider when considering your opponent's psychology. They are, "He bluffed me last time, so the next time is probably a bluff too." line of thinking. Next is the, "He just bluffed me, why would he be stupid enough to bluff me twice in a row?", line of thinking."

The question of whether to bluff straight after you've shown a bluff basically boils down to this. My thoughts on this are in a vacuum, people will heavily lean towards the first line of thought, for the simple fact that no one likes to get bluffed.

More specifically though, they don't think "this is probably a bluff too." Far from it. They probably think that it's unlikely to be a bluff again, but guess what? They will call anyway. Once you bluff someone and show it, it riles them, it makes them feel like they got owned (even though it's going to happen a lot this poker.) They will probably find a reason to justify a call, which can be any of "I just want to see," "I'm getting good pot odds," "he is probably on the level above and expects me to fold," because people do that; they find a "good" reason to make the call just because that's what they want to be the case, even though they know deep down it isn't: the true reason is "I'm afraid to get bluffed again."

There is something that intrinsically hurts about folding the best hand, much more than calling with the worst hand. It's partly to do with that a call is often not that "big of a mistake" because you're getting pot odds or whatever, but it's much more than that: it's the sense that you got owned, something that you don't feel when you make a bad call. Calling and losing is not associated with the opponent being better to you; it's associated with the opponent picking up a better hand than you and you were just unlucky etc. Folding the best hand, however, is 100% associated with being outplayed, and that sets off the ego, which then leads to tilt. 

This affects everyone to some degree (some less than others). It can change the way someone plays completely and it puts the pressure on them to change their game so they don't get outplayed again; this forces them out of their comfort zone by making them play something they aren't used to (primarily all players only have one playstyle that they can only comfortably alter to a very small degree.) It will change the way they think about every situation because it will be there at the front of their mind - it's that big of a deal. A really tight-straightforward player will be content playing their regular game until you show him a big bluff, then they'll go nuts. They probably won't even remember the 10 times you value bet them to death afterwards; they'll still be thinking about the time you bluffed them.

By that logic, we should rarely bluff an unknown after showing them a bluff; even though a thinking player knows someone will probably not bluff twice in a row. The fact is, after we show a thinking player a bluff, they are no longer thinking, not logically anyway. They are thinking about how to call you.

As a corollary, this is an argument for how good showing bluffs are once in a while, especially versus opponents who are giving you a lot of respect. People tend to overadjust to small bits of information; in this case, they will go from very rarely bluffcatching to bluffcatching most of the time. Forget all those who say 'you shouldn't ever give away information for free.' If it sends your opponent on monkey tilt, then definitely do it.

Oh, and the great thing about the human brain is that you can read this blog post, absorb it and then go to the tables, and you still might make the mistake I talked about. Gotta love emotional biases.

Going to do a proper update at some point but I'm just going to post this from the Tony G vs Isildur showdown match. (BB is Tony G, BTN is Isildur1) 

Poker Stars $50/$100 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 2 players - View hand 1103488
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN/SB: $64650.00
BB: $62150.00

Pre Flop: ($150.00)
BTN/SB raises to $300, BB calls $200

Flop: ($600.00) 7 2 J(2 players)
BB bets $600, BTN/SB raises to $2400, BB raises to $7800, BTN/SB calls $5400

Turn: ($16200.00) 5(2 players)
BB bets $16200, BTN/SB calls $16200

River: ($48600.00) 9(2 players)
BB bets $37850 all in, BTN/SB calls $37850

Final Pot: $124300.00
BTN/SB shows 8 Q T 9 (a straight, Seven to Jack)
BB shows J 6 6 7 (two pair, Jacks and Sevens)
BTN/SB wins $124300.00

Wtf?

Tony G's river bet makes almost no sense (his 3-bet on the flop is quite bad this deep OOP and his call pre is pretty bad.) His river betwill neither work as a bluff or a value bet on the river, not to mention that the 9 fills up a ton of Isildur's range with the nuts (or something strong that he slowplayed and will undoubtedly not fold.) Not sure what went through Tony G's mind on the river, but I imagine he just panicked and didn't know what to do, but didn't want to get bluffed so he decided to ship himself. 

Here are just a few observations I've made about the current games I played, based on quite a small sample size.

- 100 PLO 6 max: Stars games are relatively dry, fairly reg-filled and generally quite nitty. It hasn't always been like this; there have been very good stars games if you look no further back than 2 or 3 months ago. It's just that the really good games are fuelled by a couple or even a single spewy LAG, who usually causes the rest of the table to spew as well. I don't know what happened to these guys but they haven't been around much recently.

FTP games are on the other hand still pretty decent. The regs make bigger mistakes and there are more really bad fish (notably one who was playing something around 86/38 the other day who caused a table to have a $175 average pot.) 

- Triple draw: The 'Draw boom' on FTP is still in effect, with terrible players even as high as 15/30. I would say it is a really good time to learn TD right now; winrates can be massive in these games. Compare this to stars, which is relatively reg filled and players are somewhat competent on average. 

- Mixed games: They are still fishy, but they don't run enough on FTP. 10-game hasn't really taken off as much as straight TD on FTP. When they do run they are pretty profitable though.

That's all right now.

It's been a swingy start this month, mostly because I've really upped the volume recently, having played around 35 hours so far in the first 6 days of December.
Started off winning 2k over the first 3 days, but I lost 3500 across the next 3 days. Not very fun but I'm kinda used to it now so it doesn't bother me as much as it used to, but I do feel a little burnt out from poker overall, so I might just take a break for a couple days. The old me would feel a need to instantly try and win back the money I lost without taking time out, but that's just dumb. It doesn't matter whether you win money tomorrow or over the next week, but you're guaranteed to play worse if your goal is to just reach an arbitrary profit point.
A lot of the swings have been from HU PLO. Even though the opponents are generally weak, there are some who have beaten me because I haven't adjusted well to them. I'm not one to shy away from any opponent when it comes to HU, because I'm all about improving my game and the best way to do that is to play a wide range of players, including tougher ones, so that you have the potential to play higher in the future without being completely nitty about game selection.