Aggressive Certainty

"Degen Mode Unlocked "

Or, "How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Pai Gow Poker"

Confession time.  I've probably dropped a few hundo on Keno lifetime while visiting the local watering holes around town. I even carry around a little chart I made that shows expected payouts and frequencies. It's hugely -EV, and I am under no illusions, other than illusions of holding big laminated checks, but I still have fun with pocket change while drinking beer.  But since I lumped all gambling games into one big -EV umbrella, I kept putting money into Keno obliviously, not even imagining there might be better ways to gamble.  Yet, finally, after a week of being a Bodog Casino play money balla', and after religiously reading The Wizard of Odds and The Casino Answer Man, I don't feel quite as much like a sucker. Now all I need is a casino built near my house so I can get my drinks comped. That and regulated online poker, obviously.

My new favorite game so far has to be Pai Gow poker. The strategy for splitting pairs is similar to basic strategy in Blackjack (actually, all the 1st tier games [see below] have a basic or optimal strategy to make the highest EV, albeit still not +EV plays). Pai Gow poker is a good game to get settled in for a night of gambling or to slow things down when there's a little too much action at the other tables. Breaking a 6 hand string of ties with a win in this game is kinda exciting in a low variance kind of way!

I was also surprised to learn that Craps, if bet properly, is one of the best table games in a casino. But it can quickly turn into one of the worst gambles when placing bets in the middle of the table.  

Some notes I compiled this week:

Rules of gambling
1.  If all other rules are equal, the best games are those that yield the fewest hands per hour.
2.  Think in terms of "time on device" and "bankroll preservation" (see Rule 1).
3.  Betting systems do not change EV.
4.  Don't hedge your bets.
5.  Decide before gambling what you're willing to lose, then stick to it.

1st tier games:   Blackjack, Video poker ("Full Pay"), Pai Gow poker, Craps
2nd tier games:  Baccarat, Roulette (single 0 or "European"), Caribbean Draw
Sucker tier:          Slots, Progressives, Keno, Lottery

Betting systems (do not change EV, see Rule 3)
To minimize variance then flat bet
To risk a lot for a high probability of winning a little then press your bets after losing (Martingale)
To win a lot for a high probability of losing a little  then press your bets after winning (Anti-martingale)

HOUSE EDGES
===================================================
Deuces Wild VP(100.77%)  -0.77%           (VP = video poker)
VP Double Up bet 0.00%
Craps Odds bet 0.00%
1 deck Blackjack, hit 17 0.159%
2 deck Blackjack, stand 17 0.255%
Craps Don't Pass + Odds 0.273%   (3x-4x-5x)
Craps Pass + Odds 0.374%   (3x-4x-5x)
Craps Don't Pass + Odds 0.455%  (2x)
Video poker 6/9/800 paytable 0.46%
  (Jacks or Better (JoB) (99.54%))
Caribbean Draw  0.5% * *(house draws to gutshot)
   (Element of Risk, 1.5%/3 avg units bet)
6 deck Blackjack, hit 17 0.564%
  (Element of Risk, 0.639/1.132 avg units bet) 
Craps Pass + Odds 0.606%  (2x)
Caribbean Draw  0.8% 
  (Element of Risk, 2.4%/3 avg units bet)
Baccarat Banker 1.17%
Baccarat Player 1.36%
Craps Don't Pass 1.36%
Craps Pass 1.41%
Craps Place 6 and 8  1.52%
Craps Don't Place 6 and 8  1.82%
Caribbean Stud  2.555% 
   (Element of Risk, 5.224% house edge/2.045 avg units bet)
Roulette (Single Zero) 2.70%
Pai Gow poker (player) 2.73%
Let it Ride 3.51%
Video Poker 5/6/800 paytable 5.00%
Roulette (Double Zero) 5.26%
Slots 4-16%
Keno 25-45%
Progressive side bet 26.46%

STANDARD DEVIATION
===================================================
Pai Gow poker 0.75 *(when banker 1/2 of time)
Baccarat 0.95
Craps Don't Pass 0.99
Craps Pass 1.00
Craps Place 6 and 8 1.08
Blackjack 1.2
Caribbean Draw 1.7
Caribbean Stud 2.24
Jacks of Better 4.42
Deuces Wild 5.08
Keno 1.30-46.04

Blackjack Risk of Ruin
with 50 max bets, 13% 
with 100 max bets, 5%  (800-1200 minimum bets)
with infinite bets, 100%

Roulette "X marks the spot bet" (24% probability)
Bet a chip on X, then bet a chip each on the surrounding four corners. Five wagers, four of which pay 8-1 and one of which pays 35-1. Lose them all, or make money, but never lose money on a win. (see Rule 4)


So now that I've learned all this, I can now pretend to be a Secret Agent Man in an exotic, high stakes casino if my life depended on it (that is, if you can envision James Bond grinding out some video poker).  And follow scenes in movies where people are playing craps without being totally confused.