November 04, 2009

PLO Variance Tastes Kinda Tangy

What’s up Degens?

So the last few days have been pretty brutal at the tables for me, which is to be expected because I’ve been on a pretty nice winning streak the past few weeks so I was kind of waiting for it to end anyway. Although it’s not a huge sample, my last 1400 hands (which is about 3 days for me) has me running 8 buy ins below expectation. Anyway, it’s not a huge deal, but slightly aggravating, which consequently gives me a good reason to take a couple of days off. I read an interview with David Benyamine awhile ago where he said if he has a winning session, he always plays the next day until he loses. But if he has a losing session, he takes a day or two off and doesn’t play.

A lot of my students ask me how to deal with variance, or what kind of steps they can take to avoid tilt while minimizing downswings, both of which are integral to being a successful poker player, and particularly PLO. I normally tell them to do a few different things.

1. Take some time off from the game. Many people convince themselves they’re still playing ‘good’ poker, and that the variance will even yourself out, but trust me, you’re probably not playing as good as you think you are. Running bad effects more than the immediate equity from hand to hand, it spills over into all of the hands where stacks don’t go in as well. You’ll find yourself either spewing around more liberally in an effort to get unstuck, or you might play timidly in spots you normally would bet aggressively because you’re afraid they ‘have it’, or that they’ll call your bluff.
2. Devote more time to studying and improving. Watch videos, read books, and troll the forums during your down time. If you have the desire to partake in something poker related the day after a big loss, watch a couple of videos and take good notes. Actively watch the pros or students play in the videos and see how they’re approaching the game and what sort of things they’re doing differently than you are. Get in the habit of forming a good thought process, and make sure you’re constantly asking yourself questions about your game and theirs. How would you exploit them? What would you do differently? Studying videos and reading some content not only gives you relief from separating yourself from the stresses of playing, but it also gives you more confidence in your game the next time you play. Like anything else, you’re going to have much more confidence in your abilities if you put in the hours away from the table learning about the game and honing your skills. Instead of playing immediately after a bad session in an ominous and pessimistic mindset, your thoughts will be replaced with the new information you’ve been absorbing the last few days, and you’ll find yourself much more focused and prepared than you would have if you arrogantly hopped back into the games without improving your skills.
3. Have a friend or coach review your hands. Someone else’s eyes need to look at the hands you’ve played to make sure your losses really are a result of run bad instead of excessive bad play. Like I mentioned in my last blog, there’s many different types of run bad, but certain types are exacerbated by you putting yourself in marginal or bad situations you never would have if you were playing solid poker. A good example of this if when you call 3b’s with a bad paired hand, and then get frustrated when someone flops a better set than you. Having someone else look at your hands also serves as a placebo effect for your confidence, and whether or not they directly improve your play, anything to boost your confidence is worth trying, artificial or not.

I’ll probably be doing all of these things for the next few days. Truthfully I’m ok with losing a little money right now, because I’m about to get LearnvedFromTV’s ebook in the next couple of days, so being on a downswing gives me a good reason to buckle down and take in all the new information, and then return to the tables clear minded and motivated to play my A game. I’ll probably also catch up on my video watching; I’ve been slacking the last couple of weeks.

For those interested, here’s a few of the hands I’ve played in the last few days.

Full Tilt Poker $400.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi – 4 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $400.00
BTN: $400.00
Hero (SB): $539.90
BB: $398.80

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is SB with 7 Club A Heart J Heart A Spade
2 folds, Hero raises to $12, BB calls $8

Flop: ($24.00) 2 Club K Diamond A Club (2 players)
Hero bets $24.00, BB calls $24

Turn: ($72.00) 5 Club (2 players)
Hero bets $36.00, BB calls $36

River: ($144.00) K Club (2 players)
Hero bets $144.00, BB raises to $326.80, Hero calls $182.80

Final Pot: $797.60
Hero mucks 7 Club A Heart J Heart A Spade
BB shows 2 Diamond K Spade K Heart 3 Heart
BB wins $795.60
(Rake: $2.00)

Villain in this hand is a huge fish, playing a 75/33. PF and flop are standard, and I like my turn bet a lot for a couple of reasons. I actually don’t see him showing up with a flush here very much, maybe 25% of the time or something. By betting half pot, I get him to keep calling me with a super wide range like he does on the flop (25% fold to cb), so he’ll raise me with hands that are dominating me, or he’ll flat bad 2pr’s, bad SD’s etc. Then, depending on the river card, I can get a ton of value if he “improves” his hand, whereas if I bombed the turn he might fold those mediocre hands/draws. If he raises me, I can comfortably fold, because he was really passive post flop, so it’s always a flush imo. I thought the river was gin for me, but apparently not.

Full Tilt Poker $200.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi – 3 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $184.85
SB: $166.30
Hero (BB): $586.20

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BB with A Heart 4 Diamond 5 Spade 6 Heart
BTN raises to $7, SB calls $6, Hero calls $5

Flop: ($21.00) 4 Club 5 Club A Diamond (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets $12.00, SB calls $12, Hero raises to $69, BTN folds, SB raises to $159.30, Hero calls $90.30

Turn: ($351.60) 8 Club (2 players)

River: ($351.60) T Spade (2 players)

Final Pot: $351.60
SB shows 2 Club A Club 9 Club 2 Heart
Hero shows A Heart 4 Diamond 5 Spade 6 Heart
SB wins $350.60
(Rake: $1.00)

I feel like this hand is standard but figured I’d post it anyway. I like my call PF because my relative position post flop is outstanding. The SB is a very loose fish, and I’ll be able to see what the pre flop raiser does before I act on the flop. Once the BTN cb’s 12 into 21, I know he never really has a hand here, and when the SB flats the 12, I thought not only do I basically always have the ‘best’ hand here, but I should get a ton of folds, and with the dead money out there it’s definitely worth re-raising here. Some people would argue that flatting is best, but I completely disagree. There’s just too many bad turns for me 3way, so I’d rather just put the money in when I know I have at the very least 40-50% equity, in addition to a ton of fold equity most of the time.

Full Tilt Poker $200.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi – 2 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $262.95
BTN/SB: $215.20

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BB with A Heart J Heart J Club A Club
BTN/SB calls $1, Hero raises to $6, BTN/SB raises to $10, Hero raises to $30, BTN/SB calls $20

Flop: ($60.00) 4 Spade T Club 5 Diamond (2 players)
Hero bets $60.00, BTN/SB raises to $120, Hero raises to $232.95, BTN/SB calls $65.20 all in

Turn: ($430.40) 5 Heart (2 players – 1 is all in)

River: ($430.40) 5 Club (2 players – 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $430.40
Hero shows A Heart J Heart J Club A Club
BTN/SB shows T Spade T Diamond 6 Heart A Diamond
BTN/SB wins $429.90
(Rake: $0.50)

This is a really odd hand. I initially thought he was an ok player, but after a few hands I realized he’s incredibly passive pre flop. He literally was playing like a 75/5 or something, so when he limp 3b me, I figured him for a big hand or big draw, but it could also be him just getting kind of tricky. Can’t really fold the flop when the SPR is only 3 and he could have a lot of combo draws that I’m getting odds against. Pretty unfortunate.

Full Tilt Poker $200.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi – 5 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $513.20
CO: $518.45
BTN: $1445.30
SB: $191.25
Hero (BB): $200.00

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BB with A Club 2 Club A Diamond 9 Diamond
1 fold, CO raises to $8.50, 1 fold, SB calls $7.50, Hero raises to $35.50, CO calls $27, 1 fold

Flop: ($79.50) 9 Spade A Heart K Spade (2 players)
Hero bets $81.00, CO raises to $202.50, Hero calls $83.50 all in

Turn: ($408.50) 2 Heart (2 players – 1 is all in)

River: ($408.50) Q Heart (2 players – 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $408.50
CO shows J Heart 7 Heart J Spade 7 Spade
Hero shows A Club 2 Club A Diamond 9 Diamond
CO wins $406.40
(Rake: $1.80)

Standard, I guess… Not really winning these lately.

Full Tilt Poker $200.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi – 4 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $330.45
BB: $89.95
CO: $675.40
Hero (BTN): $279.75

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BTN with 9 Heart A Heart 8 Spade 5 Club
CO raises to $8.20, Hero raises to $28.80, SB calls $27.80, 1 fold, CO calls $20.60

Flop: ($88.40) 7 Heart 9 Spade 6 Club (3 players)
SB checks, CO bets $89.60, Hero raises to $250.65, SB folds, CO calls $161.05

Turn: ($589.70) 7 Spade (2 players)

River: ($589.70) 6 Diamond (2 players)

Final Pot: $589.70
CO shows 6 Heart 3 Club 3 Diamond 6 Spade
Hero shows 9 Heart A Heart 8 Spade 5 Club
CO wins $588.90
(Rake: $0.80)

Good turn for him in 290bb pot.

Full Tilt Poker $200.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi – 5 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $943.40
BTN: $702.25
SB: $96.25
Hero (BB): $200.00
UTG: $479.60

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BB with 4 Club 6 Club T Diamond 9 Diamond
UTG calls $2, 3 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($5.00) 7 Heart 2 Club 8 Club (2 players)
Hero bets $6.00, UTG calls $6

Turn: ($17.00) K Spade (2 players)
Hero bets $14.00, UTG calls $14

River: ($45.00) 7 Diamond (2 players)
Hero bets $31.45, UTG calls $31.45

Final Pot: $107.90
Hero shows 4 Club 6 Club T Diamond 9 Diamond
UTG shows 3 Diamond A Club A Spade J Heart
UTG wins $106.40
(Rake: $1.50)

How’d I miss?

Full Tilt Poker $200.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi – 2 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN/SB: $83.50
Hero (BB): $217.50

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BB with 9 Diamond 6 Diamond T Club Q Club
BTN/SB calls $1, Hero raises to $6, BTN/SB raises to $12, Hero calls $6

Flop: ($24.00) J Diamond 3 Club A Club (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets $12.00, Hero raises to $60, BTN/SB calls $48

Turn: ($144.00) 8 Heart (2 players)
Hero bets $72.00, BTN/SB calls $11.50 all in

River: ($167.00) A Spade (2 players – 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $167.00
BTN/SB shows 8 Club K Club 6 Heart K Heart
Hero shows 9 Diamond 6 Diamond T Club Q Club
BTN/SB wins $166.50
(Rake: $0.50)

Don’t really expect to be a big underdog here very much, but so it goes lol.

Full Tilt Poker $200.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi – 2 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $284.50
Hero (BTN/SB): $243.70

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BTN/SB with 7 Heart 3 Heart 7 Diamond K Spade
Hero raises to $6, BB calls $4

Flop: ($12.00) J Diamond 7 Spade 6 Heart (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $12.00, BB calls $12

Turn: ($36.00) A Diamond (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $36.00, BB raises to $144, Hero raises to $225.70, BB calls $81.70

River: ($487.40) J Club (2 players)

Final Pot: $487.40
BB shows J Heart Q Heart 6 Diamond A Club
Hero shows 7 Heart 3 Heart 7 Diamond K Spade
BB wins $486.90
(Rake: $0.50)

Nice river for him in 250bb pot with 10% equity.

Full Tilt Poker $200.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi – 6 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $66.60
BTN: $427.05
Hero (SB): $214.80
BB: $200.00
UTG: $227.75
MP: $517.75

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is SB with 8 Spade 9 Club Q Diamond J Club
1 fold, MP raises to $4, CO raises to $15, BTN calls $15, Hero calls $14, 1 fold, MP calls $11

Flop: ($62.00) T Heart 9 Diamond 3 Club (4 players)
Hero checks, MP checks, CO bets $40.00, BTN folds, Hero raises to $182, MP folds, CO calls $11.60 all in

Turn: ($165.20) 3 Diamond (2 players – 1 is all in)

River: ($165.20) 5 Heart (2 players – 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $165.20
CO shows 3 Heart 5 Diamond A Diamond 4 Spade
Hero shows 8 Spade 9 Club Q Diamond J Club
CO wins $162.20
(Rake: $3.00)

Full Tilt Poker $200.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi – 5 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $200.00
UTG: $79.75
CO: $396.50
BTN: $901.95
Hero (SB): $200.00

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is SB with A Diamond J Diamond A Heart Q Spade
UTG calls $2, CO calls $2, BTN raises to $12.50, Hero raises to $45, 3 folds, BTN calls $32.50

Flop: ($96.00) T Diamond Q Club Q Heart (2 players)
Hero bets $31.00, BTN raises to $62, Hero raises to $154.70, BTN calls $92.70

Turn: ($405.40) 5 Spade (2 players)

River: ($405.40) J Spade (2 players)

Final Pot: $405.40
BTN shows 9 Spade J Heart Q Diamond J Club
Hero shows A Diamond J Diamond A Heart Q Spade
Hero wins $201.95
BTN wins $201.95
(Rake: $1.50)

Full Tilt Poker $200.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi – 2 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN/SB: $194.00
Hero (BB): $261.35

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BB with 9 Spade 7 Diamond 8 Heart 6 Spade
BTN/SB raises to $6, Hero raises to $18, BTN/SB raises to $54, Hero calls $36

Flop: ($108.00) T Heart 7 Spade 4 Heart (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets $108.00, Hero raises to $207.35, BTN/SB calls $32 all in

Turn: ($388.00) T Club (2 players – 1 is all in)

River: ($388.00) 4 Club (2 players – 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $388.00
BTN/SB shows K Spade K Diamond K Heart A Diamond
Hero shows 9 Spade 7 Diamond 8 Heart 6 Spade
BTN/SB wins $387.50
(Rake: $0.50)

I hope everyone is running better than I am. I’ll try to write something in the next couple of days.

GL,

John

Posted By KasinoKrime at 08:15 AM

20 Comments

20 Comments:

mopas2000 posted on November 05, 2009 at 17:22 PM

Avatar

omg your hands are so sad.. anyway really good blog thanks a lot gl on the table!


KasinoKrime posted on November 06, 2009 at 01:03 AM

Be25f472cb5

Thanks for reading mopas, gl to you too!


Orestto posted on November 06, 2009 at 08:03 AM

Jemaine

John, sorry to hear you're riding the bad side of variance. I definitely agree with devoting more time to studying and improving.

I wanted to ask on the first hand where you bet 1/2 pot on the turn when the flush comes and get called, what's your general plan for the river if the board doesn't pair?


KasinoKrime posted on November 06, 2009 at 18:54 PM

Be25f472cb5

Depends on what the actual card is again, but I'm still betting the majority of cards for a couple of different reasons. First, like I said, his range is so wide both pre flop and post flop that I think he can be calling me with any pair and any draw, and if this is true, the river will many times make him many garbage two pairs that will call a small value bet on the river.

With the pot at 144, I'd bet 45-55'ish I think, which seems kind of funky because it's so small, but remember the bigger you bet, the more you narrow the opponents calling range, and here I'm mostly trying to widen it, or not value own myself if he does show up with a flush or rivered straight because he's calling anyway. It's important to note that he pretty much never raises me with the top of his range here, which is good for us and really lets us control the hand, particularly OOP. It's also important to note that you could basically never play this way against a competent player, but he was really passive and predictable so even OOP you can really own him.

Also fwiw I can see checking being fine, but I think even though it's really thin, there's still value to be had on the river here. It'd certainly be close though.


AshThePro posted on November 08, 2009 at 03:58 AM

Outerspace_kid_cudi

Good Blog! Thats whats up!


Orestto posted on November 09, 2009 at 04:40 AM

Jemaine

Thanks for the reply KK, I agree with your analysis.


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