You rarely have perfect information in poker. You rarely have perfect reads. You're often making assumptions based on things like board texture and Hold'em Manager or Poker Tracker stats. Very often your sample size of whatever stat you're looking at isn't big enough to base an entire line of play on.
Getting good at estimating what's more or less likely in a given scenario requires being aware of what's possible.
If you find yourself flustered and making mistakes in difficult situations it's because of the pressure to act in a time frame vs. the ability to think it all through and reach what seems like a good decision. You need to practice thinking through these unfamiliar, uncomfortable situations with a clearer thought process than what you come up with in the moment.
You can approach all "weird" situations with the same thought process. What hands can villain be bluffing with here? What hands can villain be value betting here? What's more likely? How will the rest of the hand play out if I take a certain action? Of course there's a ton of other variables that we can add here to make it a way more complex situation, but that's not required for this example and that would take the shortcut out of this hand reading shortcut :D
Unsophisticated opponents play within their tendencies without branching out too frequently. What I mean by that is that if I guy checks and calls with top pair or a flush draw on the flop, he's very unlikely to randomly raise those hands on a blank turn. Of course that's not always the case, but if I had to say it was more likely or less likely, it would be more likely that they take the same line with the same strength of hand that they took on the flop.
If you experience an unexpected line from someone, a turn raise, a random donk bet, a check and minraise (THE DEVIL HIMSELF), employ the same thought process regardless of the weirdness of the situation. There are tons of unique spots that come up, and you can think through them the same way.
The next step is awareness of what can actually be in your opponent's range. If a guy check/calls A74 rainbow and raises an 8 turn and you're holding Ax, you need to be aware that a loose player can have 56s, 78s, A8o (maybe, at least suited), and 88 in their value range. Is it likely that they take a hand like 76s that would call the flop and turn it into a bluff on the turn? Probably not. It might happen sometimes, but on the scale of more or less likely, it's less likely.
Thinking about the actual combinations of hands in your opponents preflop distribution (that get to the flop) and estimating what's more or less likely can save you a lot of headaches in unfamiliar situations. You'll never be right all the time, but you can be right way more often than if you tried to solve each situation as a unique spot that you JUST started thinking about once you were faced with it.
I've got room to coach a few new students in May, feel free to pm me if you're interested.
If you American poker players are sick and tired of not being able to cashout of sites consistently and you're sick of dumb things like "fair play" and you're a sports fan, you should try daily fantasy sports. It's clearly not the same as poker, but it has a lot of sweet elements and it's completely legal. The cashouts are usually processed within 24 hours for the most reputable sites via PAYPAL. That's something online gaming hasn't had since like, the pre-glory days. I remember when I started playing online poker you could use PayPal but that ended with a brutal quickness.
Check out fantasysportsdojo.com, the daily fantasy sports related site I'm working with. Hit me up on twitter @rotoupdates if you'd like to know more. I really feel like you guys might be missing out on something similar to the old days of poker. It's not quite that good, but it's pretty sweet. One of the sites is running qualifiers to a championship event at the Playboy Mansion. That's sick!
