Fish and Chips

This is it.  The end.  Terminus.  Finitum. 

I've messed around in poker for a number of years now, from home games to casinos to online.

I've lost money playing poker for a number of years now, from home games to casinos to online.

This is where I draw a line in the sand and move from being a casual player into a winner, this is where I stop riding the variance train to crazy town and grind my way to a steady return.

You know people say its easy this poker lark.  Just study a few hours a day, play some tables, read some books and watch some videos they say, but I don't think it is.  Who knows?  Maybe its just me, maybe I'm too slow on the uptake?  Maybe I don't have the head for it?  Maybe I'm actually a god at poker and am in that 0.001% of people that variance has made her bitch.  

Heh.

Maybe not.

But seriously speaking, I find myself overwhelmed looking at the never-ending carousel of poker books and videos.  Hence why I'm starting this blog, lets go back to the beginning, right the way back to the micros, lets grind up some Sit 'n' Goes and lets learn as we go.  I want to be brutally honest as I chart the highs and the lows, the resources that help me and maybe, just maybe, chart out a clear path for some guy reading this in a year or two looking to follow down this same trail.

So who am I?  I'm 25 years old, I've got a good education from one of the best Universities in my country, I've got a 'nice' office job I hate.  Actually, allow me to rephrase, every time I go to work, turn on my computer and that far too happy windows chime greets me, a little part of me dies inside, probably forever.  *ahem*  I live in the good old United Kingdom and a lovely (but cold) northern city.

I have other interests, but fuck it, I'm sure you don't really care too much right?  We're all here for the poker so might as well go over my poker history.  I've got a nice home game once or twice a month, which with the help of Deuces Cracked and some basic study I've started to really crush.  I play a few tournaments at local casinos and I've played 40,000 or so hands of cash, up to NL25, some NL50, generally being pretty break even (mostly thanks to rackback and bonuses).  Honestly, I have no idea how or really what I was doing past the basics.  I've also played a few hundred SNG's and I'm slightly down on those.

Goals

The first step to anything, goals, if you don't set some goals how do you know where you're going and how are you going to know if you're getting there.  Success doesn't just happen.  So what are mine?

Well lets start with a basic idea

• I want to turn poker into something I can live off, so I can quit my shitty job and enjoy some flexibility.
  

A noble idea, but there isn't much substance there.  Now I said I was going to be honest, I've recently watched Vandweller's fantastic “Real life Mirco SNG Grinder” series and that inspired me to make this blog and refocused my attention on what I really want out of poker and how I'm going to do it.  I'm actually pretty good at goal setting and use it for most things that matter in my life so I'm going to try applying this to poker.  I like to look at goals like a pyramid, with what your overall goal is at the top and various sub-goals beneath it.  In this my top goal, the peak of my pyramid is stated above, earn money, quit job, [s]live like a baller[/s] do all right money wise.

But a good goal is measurable, the above really isn't, it also isn't realistic on its own, I mean its so vague and full of unquantified ideals. 

So what would I like to live off as a minimum.  I'm going to throw out £1500 each and every month.  That's my baseline.  First off might as well convert that into dollars and make the rest of the calculations easier.  $2467.65.  Might as well call that $2500 a month in profit.  I'm also not going to want to be at the mercy of variance and don't really want to be risking not eating if I have a shitty month.  So I really want to be making double that at my expected ROI for whatever level I'm playing.  So thats $5000 a month.   That way, even if I'm running 50% below my expected return, I can still withdraw without hurting, if I'm running anything better than that, I'm building both my bankroll up and building a cushion to help withstand bad months.

So what does it take to make $5000 a month?  Well I guess that comes down to volume, if I played a trillion $1 turbos each month (don't ask how) then, yeah sure, I could crank it out.  Similarly if I played one $10,000 each month and had a ROI of 50% (its an example ok) long term I'd also make it.  Now at the moment I can commit about 12-15 hours a week to poker (playing and study).  Come quittin' time however I can easily handle 35 hours a week.  I think going for 30-35 as a full time gig isn't too harsh, you can have a heavy couple of days playing and put yourself ahead of the game, you don't have to dedicate your life to it, it retains a certain flexibility.    

Number of tables, I can currently handle 16 at once if I don't mind shitting the bed decisions wise, but the more I learn and play correctly the more this is going to become ingrained, while I'm going to be dropping this number significantly in the short term I think 16 tables is pretty reasonable as an end point for this goal.  Multi-tasking and quick clicking etc isn't a problem so I could even end up higher.  Given an average time of 40 minutes per turbo.  Thats 24 an hour assuming they all go the distance, I'm going to up that to 30 as a totally out my ass estimate and to make the maths easier.  I'm probably off on several of these numbers, but it isn't of vital importance they all be spot on just yet, I can refine as and when (or if) I get closer to them.

That gives us, 3900-4550 SNG's a month.  That means I need a return of around $1.10 per sit and go played.  So thats about a 10% roi at the $10, 5% at the $20, 2% at the $50 and 1% at the $100 given I don't want to be too strict about the numbers at this early stage.  Now I don't honestly know what the exact current optimal is for any level, I don't really care, I know the numbers above are not miles away from it and I highly doubt they are too far above it, what matters is what I can attain not what the best player in the world can attain.  Similarly, I want to be pushing up the the highest buy in I can sustain the above win-rate or better at, the difference in rake-back between the levels is insane and should provide a nice cushion to the greater swings.

So there we have our first sub-goal.  Play 4500~ SNG's a month 16 tableing with a ROI that equals a profit of at least $1 per SNG played.

Going through similar thought processes I've got the following list.

• I want to turn poker into something I can live off, so I can quit my shitty job and enjoy some flexibility.
  

Which leads to.

• Play 4500~ SNG's a month 16 tableing with a ROI that equals a profit of at least $1 per SNG played.
  
• Have a BR of at least 200 buy ins for my level before I quit.
  
• Have 6 months of expenses lined up before I do a shit on my bosses desk.
  

The problem then lies that I don't really know the middle part, I have to figure that out as I go, but I have 3 areas I can align goals under as I go and thus raise myself goal by goal, day by day, towards my target.  I need volume, I need to improve my game and I need to save money.

So to bring this, now rather wordy blog, to a close I'm going to put out this weeks small step goals.

1. I want to play 100-200 SNG's by Sunday.  I've got a busy week and most of my poker time is going to be spent learning and bedding down some knowledge.  I still need to get in some volume though.  Consistency is key.  (As a point of reference the end point before I consider leading the job is being able to happily grind out 1500 a week).
   
2. I will spend at least 3 hours this week going through a few SNG's, following through in hand replayer and calling out what I think is the correct choice and why for each hand before I see my action, if I don't know, or if I do different I will explore why and attempt to find the correct answer, either through forums or an ICM calculator.
   
3. I will promise to make the next blog more interesting.
   

Now to finish I'll leave you with a hand from last night that has really been bugging me.

Poker Stars $3.16+$0.34 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t300/t600 Blinds + t50 - 4 players 

DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: t4200 M = 3.82
Hero (SB): t3750 M = 3.41
BB: t2260 M = 2.05
CO: t3290 M = 2.99

Pre Flop: (t1100) Hero is SB with K Q
CO raises to t3240 all in, 1 fold, Hero raises to t3700 all in, 1 fold

Flop: (t7280) Q J A(2 players - 2 are all in)

Turn: (t7280) 5(2 players - 2 are all in)

River: (t7280) 8(2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: t7280

Observations.

The BB was terrible, he is the kind of guy that will fold their way to death, literally all the way.  He is only here because he won when he was forced all in by the blinds.  He literally only plays premium hands.

The BTN was pushing all the time it was unopened to him, he was folding almost anything raised to him, probably pretty much the right thing to do really.

The CO was in between the two, even with such low BB's he still missed alot of easy pushes (IMO) but he was still pushing alot of cards.

I had decided to call if the BTN pushed, I got a bit carried away when the CO pushed, the more I think about it the more I think I should have folded but I'm still not sure, I could just run and bang this into an ICM calculator, but by sitting and pondering I push the situation into my brain, so when I finally go find the answer (either ICM or from other, better, players) its going to stick for similar situations.