September 25, 2010
Playbook series notes
Playbook notes
People are not born with skillsets, and poker is no different. Hard work and long hours make all the difference. Talent is a  "myth", its all about obsessive practice
EV is additive future +EV decisions MUST add to your EV, you can't manipulate this
dont price yourself out or in from EV, just make the most +EV line and try to get max value or choose the line that gives you most fold equity, in either case maximize EV
Consider your blockers and heavily discount their combos of hands which you block
You need to be sure you can have a profitable river spot to bet the turn as a semi bluff
We need to be able to know that we can use the bloated pot to our advantage on a later street, as in bigger bets for value or (more importantly) better spots to bluff profitably
Simple Bluff visualization method:
Visualize each * and ^ as 10bb
Example 1
Take a 40bb pot ****
Make a 40bb bluff ^^^^
Put them side by side ^^^^**** you can see the bluff only needs to work half the time
Example 2
1/2 pot
Take a 40bb pot ****
Make a 20bb bluff ^^
Put them side by side ^^**** we can see bluff only needs to work about 1/3 of the time
Dont make blind assumptions, estimate as much as possible
OOP tend to C/R semibluff IP tend to call with draws
Semi-bluffing has to be more +EV than the EV of just calling
Fold Equity vs Pot Equity in relation to stack size:
Take the following example hand, pot is 30bb
Villain bets 20bb, so total pot is 50bb
Villain covers hero
Breakeven =
Hero has 100bb
Fold equity Pot Equity
10% / 41.1%
20% / 38%
30% / 34.2%
40% / 29%
50% 21.7%
60% 10.9%
67% 0%
Hero has 150bb
Fold Equity Pot Equity
10% / 43.8%
20% / 41.7%
30% / 39%
40% / 35.4%
50% 30.3%
60% 22.7%
70% 10.1%
75% 0%
Facing 3bets, look for players who are 3betting alot in specifc positions
Choosing to 4bet is +EV if villain folds 60%+
4betting is better when we lack: Position and Skill Advantage postflop
flatting 3bets IP is generally best except for Axo and Trash, Offsuit broadways vs tighter ranges (turn them into 4-bet bluffs) and QQ+ against players who love to 5bet jam alot
When is 4betting still best even with position? When we have a weak range against unaware opponents, offsuit broadways where calling has reverse IP, using a wide range (bluffs and monsters) against maniacal 5bettors, or when villain has a skill edge on us postflop. NB: Always polarise your 4-bet range
We want to use fold equity when deciding on 5bets, a shortcut for this is if Equity% in final pot is greater than the existing pot: Eq% > (Existing pot + cost of shove) /2Â
If our Eq% <66% we want a fold, heres some examples vs typical calling ranges:
Our Hand Equity
9hTh - 66%
AhKh - 77%
JhTh - 61%
9sTs - 58%
99 - 71%
89 - 72%
QJ - 26%
Reverse Impied Odds takes into account the need to quantify our river decision
Against who is calling turn bets best?
Villains who dont bluff , Villains who don't valuebet well, villains who nearly always bet the river (we need to have a strong hand here though 45%+ on turn)
Thus, Initiative and aggression are powerful
Villain has 2 choices with weak made hands, Make potentially bad calldowns, Mark correct turn folds with up to 50% equity
Our strategy must hinge around good valuebetting
Remember that stubborn calls are often losing calls
The more streets remaining the greater our equity needed to call down
calling hinges entirely upon information we have on villain about likely future actions
Playing OOP as the 3bettor, USE DIFFERENT RANGES VS DIFFERENT PLAYERS
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