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Missing value with a Monster draw?

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Avatar for grandmofftarkin

505 posts
Joined 04/2011

$4/8 live and this hand occurred about 3 hours into the session. The villian is an angry old man who had been complaining about river cards...blah, blah, blah. Anyway, he was playing pretty straight forward/tight and hadn't raised a flop with less than an overpair. Here we go...

Preflop: (9 handed) EP2 limps, MP2/villian limps, Hero raises AClub QClub, BB calls, EP2 and villian call. 4 players 8.5 small bets.

Flop: JClub TSpade 7Club EP2 checks, Villian checks, Hero bets, BB folds, EP2 folds, Villian raises, Hero re-raises, Villian caps, Hero calls. 2 players, 16.5 small bets.

Turn: 9Diamond Villian bets, Hero?

I was pretty sure I was up against two-pair, a set, or an overpair after 4 bets went in on the flop, thus I figured my overcard outs were reduced heavily. However, that's still a big draw on the flop and turn. Should I have put in more action on the turn with the flush draw/straight draw?

Also, I now realize I could've put in more action on the flop and kept raising (in our poker room it was HU when the 4th bet went in, thus no cap). Should I have just called his 4-bet or kept going?

Posted almost 7 years ago


Avatar for SIide

2405 posts
Joined 12/2008

I don't see too much of a reason to 3-bet the flop, honestly. You have a read that villain isn't C/R less than an overpair, maybe something like AJ. You aren't an equity favourite in this case (I think its about 50/50). I just call the flop C/R with the plan of raising the turn/river if I hit my draw.

Same thing applies on the turn only now its much worse for you. He's betting the 9Diamond turn meaning he really likes his hand, you have no fold equity, and you are now much more of an equity dog.

It might be a good idea to play around with stove for a bit as it seems like your overvaluing your big draw here. Best case scenario on the turn you have only 40% equity and raising would just be putting in extra bets behind.

Board: Jc Ts 7c 9d

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.909% 40.91% 00.00% 18 0.00 { AcQc }
Hand 1: 59.091% 59.09% 00.00% 26 0.00 { AdJd }

Posted almost 7 years ago


Avatar for BigBadBabar

4557 posts
Joined 03/2007


Avatar for Juice

431 posts
Joined 02/2010

i much prefer to just call the flop raise once it comes back to you and youre hu ip. we get to protect all our peels and raise the turn when we hit but thats more of a stylistic difference I suppose. 5 betting the flop would be dumb with any hand imo

Posted almost 7 years ago


Avatar for motienko

2113 posts
Joined 03/2008

if this guy could be CR this flop with Tx or draws then I go ahead and 3b and make him pay. If his range is tight like you say it is, then just call the flop even though you are still a slight favorite unless he has a monster.

Posted almost 7 years ago


Avatar for grandmofftarkin

505 posts
Joined 04/2011

So what ended up happening is I called the turn, and a KingHeart hit on the river. The guy checked and I got paid off by his flopped two pair JHeart TDiamond (yes I run good, lol). Villian bitched and moaned about me hitting a gutshot, not realizing I had an open-ended + flush draw; I decided to smile and keep my mouth shut.

Anyway, when I get checkraised on the flop, I decided to 3-bet to possibly keep my options open for taking a free card on the turn. Plus, even though I said his raising range was pretty strong, this was only a few hours into a session, and maybe this guy could have suprised me with a straight draw or smaller flush draw. When I got capped, I was pretty sure it was a monster for the villian. This is what I thought my flop equity looked like, and I didn't think putting in an extra bet was that terrible:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
60,390 trials (Exhaustive)
board: JClubTSpade7Club
Hero--AClubQClub 44.33% (26,733 wins, 81 ties)
Villian range--QQ,KK,AA, JJ, TT, JT, T7, J7, 98 55.67% (33,576 wins, 81 ties)

Posted almost 7 years ago

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