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200NL - TT pre vs SQ from aggro

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VICOMA1983

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422 posts
Joined 05/2008

BB is 23/18 so far , 3bet 14%, SQ 15% on 184 hands. Just 3bet the hand before too. Dont have a clue if he 5bet shoves worse here.

SB is a 35/18 coldcalling alot in this spot but folding 73% to 3bets (11 sample)

My question is if a call or a 4bet/call is better here. It would be great if you could give your reasoning for either one. thanks!

Full Tilt Poker $200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 934004
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $134.25
BB: $329.55
UTG: $220.00
MP: $263.00
CO: $200.00
Hero (BTN): $206.65

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BTN with T Heart T Diamond
3 folds, Hero raises to $5, SB calls $4, BB raises to $25

Posted almost 8 years ago

D3rJack

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444 posts
Joined 02/2010

I would prefer to 4bet/call. His squeeze is pretty large. When you call and SB folds, you have a SPR of 3.5 which is pretty low.
Even if he shoves only TT+,AK you should have enough equity to call after 4betting. And your 4bet will definetely show a profit, because he´s probably squeezing a pretty wide range here. But you will make him fold a lot of offsuit broadway hands, that he could be squeezing with, that have good equity vs TT.
And I think his shoving range here is probably more something like 99+,AQ than your equity is pretty good.

Posted almost 8 years ago

RiverRock55

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362 posts
Joined 02/2008

Pocket Tens has 34% equity against TT+,AK.

If you 4bet to $50 and he shoves you would be getting 1.38 to 1. Meaning you need 42% equity to call

EV= (261)(0.34) + (-156)(0.62)
EV= 89 - 97
EV= -$7 is the EV of calling his 5bet shove once you have already 4bet.

You win $35 in dead money when you 4bet and he folds.
0 = (35)(x) + (-7)(1-x)
-7 + 42x
x = 17%, So if he folds 17% of the time to your 4bet and shoves TT+,AK you will break even with the 4bet calling play. If he folds anymore than this you will be making money.

TT+,AK is 3.5% of hands. If he is 3betting exactly 4.2% of hands he will be 3bet folding 17% of the time. This villan is 3betting way more than that so it is prob very plus EV to 4bet get it in.

4bet getting it in here is my preferred line. Im sure flatting, possibly keeping this fish in is plus EV too, but you will face many difficult spots. And if is shoving a range wider than the one we put in it is even better for us.

Posted almost 8 years ago

Tackleberry

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3561 posts
Joined 10/2009

Pocket Tens has 34% equity against TT+,AK.
[...]
EV= -$7 is the EV of calling his 5bet shove once you have already 4bet.
[...]
x = 17%



You made quite some mistakes. Wink

1) The minor mistake is that 1 - 0.34 is 0.66, not 0.62 but that´s almost irrelevant.

2) Your ev-calc "EV=(261)(0.34) + (-156)(0.62)" assumes that we already invested the 4bet - but that´s not correct. We´re thinking about doing it - so you can´t take that as money we win, but as money, we´re still about to lose. Said this, we do not risk 156 to win 261 but we risk 201 (our stack minus the initial bet) to win 216 (2x5 + the rest of Villains eff. stack).

You can check it yourself if you put in your numbers into the whole equation - you´ll see that with 17% FE Hero loses ~$43 on average by 4b/calling.

Here´s the corrected formula - according to your way of calculating it (corrected parts in bold):

EV= (216)(0.34) + (-201)(0.66)
EV= 73 - 132
EV= -$59 is the EV of 4betting in case he 5bet shoves.

=>

0 = (35)(x) + (-59)(1-x)
0 = 35x + 59x - 59
59 = 94x
x = 59/94
x = 63%

So we need 63% fold equity for 4bet/calling to be +/-0.

Sorry for having corrected this, but I thought it was important b/c the difference between 17% and 63% is huge, obv. Smile

Posted almost 8 years ago

DireStr88

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1419 posts
Joined 08/2010

Either 4bet/call or shove, TT isn't going to hold up well vs both the villain and the fish post flop.

Posted almost 8 years ago

SCS

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6528 posts
Joined 06/2008

If you can't show a profit calling a shove after 4betting, then it's better to 4bet/fold, not 4bet/call.

The 4 bet and facing the 5 bet are two independent actions.

Posted almost 8 years ago

RiverRock55

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362 posts
Joined 02/2008

Thanks Tackleberry. Definitly needed to be corrected on this one.

I must have been smokin when I wrote this because I just found another mistake. We would be getting 1.67 to 1 odds on a call facing his 5bet shove. Meaning we only need 37.5% equity to call.

SCS - Now a call seems more clear. Even though TT has 34% equity vs TT+,AK and we need 37% given the odds, its close enough calling is better incase he is infact shoving a wider range or spazzing some non-zero %. And we are well compensted for this small loss by all the dead money we wins when he folds.

I botched this one guys, thanks for your help in sorting this out.

Posted almost 8 years ago

LuckyStraights

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623 posts
Joined 02/2009

4b/fold or 4b/call looks good to me. Too weak to play postflop ime.

Posted almost 8 years ago

SCS

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6528 posts
Joined 06/2008

Thanks Tackleberry. Definitly needed to be corrected on this one.

I must have been smokin when I wrote this because I just found another mistake. We would be getting 1.67 to 1 odds on a call facing his 5bet shove. Meaning we only need 37.5% equity to call.

SCS - Now a call seems more clear. Even though TT has 34% equity vs TT+,AK and we need 37% given the odds, its close enough calling is better incase he is infact shoving a wider range or spazzing some non-zero %. And we are well compensted for this small loss by all the dead money we wins when he folds.

I botched this one guys, thanks for your help in sorting this out.



You could always 4 bet slightly larger, to maybe $53-$54 instead of $50.
If villain is shoving TT+/AK, he's probably playing AQ the same way, which brings our equity to 40%, making a 4 bet/call profitable.

Posted almost 8 years ago

Tackleberry

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3561 posts
Joined 10/2009

You could always 4 bet slightly larger, to maybe $53-$54 instead of $50.
If villain is shoving TT+/AK, he's probably playing AQ the same way, which brings our equity to 40%, making a 4 bet/call profitable.


That´s a common misconception. Wink You can´t manipulate EV, it´s always cumulative. If you plan on 4bet/calling, it has no advantage to 4bet bigger - the better odds are counterfit by the stronger range you face when you 4bet bigger. For example, he might not shove AQ b/c he is afraid that he has no FE.

Please give me a hint if it got clear, what I wanted to say ... being at work atm, so I typed that just quick.

Posted almost 8 years ago

FenderJaguar

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893 posts
Joined 01/2008

4b'ing here to about $60+ more if I think they're likely to flat less if I think they aren't, but generally $60+ and snapcalling a shove from the squeezer. Like I'm snapping it so fast you'll think the slim jim factory was just blown up by terrorists. That's how fast I'm snapping it. I'm snapping it so fast my call button is actually the bet button for my next cbet. I'm snapping it so fast that you'll think it didn't take any licks to get to the center of this tootsie pop.

BB isn't always showing up with just TT+ and AK. he can have AQ, he can talk himself into a shove with worse as a bluff, he can have worse pairs, etc. etc. yadda yadda 4b/

See how fast I snapcalled, it didn't even show up in the last sentence. That's how fast.

Posted almost 8 years ago

SCS

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6528 posts
Joined 06/2008

That´s a common misconception. Wink You can´t manipulate EV, it´s always cumulative. If you plan on 4bet/calling, it has no advantage to 4bet bigger - the better odds are counterfit by the stronger range you face when you 4bet bigger. For example, he might not shove AQ b/c he is afraid that he has no FE.

Please give me a hint if it got clear, what I wanted to say ... being at work atm, so I typed that just quick.



If our plan is to call a shove, then 4betting slightly bigger is better, assuming villain's range stays the same.

The times that villain folds, does not make up for the times we make a -ev call of a shove. The 4 bet, and facing a shove are 2 independent actions.

Posted almost 8 years ago

Tackleberry

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3561 posts
Joined 10/2009

If our plan is to call a shove, then 4betting slightly bigger is better, assuming villain's range stays the same.


If Villain´s range stays the same, our betsize is completely irrelevant, do the math - check it out. Wink

The times that villain folds, does not make up for the times we make a -ev call of a shove. The 4 bet, and facing a shove are 2 independent actions.


No, that´s not correct. As long as our inital plan is to call a shove (see your post above) it´s technically two decisions clumped together to one single decision (stack off). So again, if Villains range is exactly the same it doesn´t matter at all what betsize we choose. We risk our entire stack to win what is in the pot and with a certain equity if money goes in - regardless of what chunks the money goes in with.

Posted almost 8 years ago

LuckyStraights

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623 posts
Joined 02/2009

If our plan is to call a shove, then 4betting slightly bigger is better, assuming villain's range stays the same.



No, it's not. The odds aren't important in that case as all the money goes in away. Tackleberry did a fine job explaining it.

Posted almost 8 years ago

SCS

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6528 posts
Joined 06/2008

If Villain´s range stays the same, our betsize is completely irrelevant, do the math - check it out. Wink


No, that´s not correct. As long as our inital plan is to call a shove (see your post above) it´s technically two decisions clumped together to one single decision (stack off). So again, if Villains range is exactly the same it doesn´t matter at all what betsize we choose. We risk our entire stack to win what is in the pot and with a certain equity if money goes in - regardless of what chunks the money goes in with.



By this logic, we should 4bet/call with A5o.

Posted almost 8 years ago




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