September 28, 2010

Some poor play. Finally!

After being a bit snug and lazy for a while i played really poorly again (finally!). So lets get to some analysis, oh how i missed that:

Full Tilt Poker $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 954187
The Official Hand History Converter

MP: $102.50
CO: $105.50
Hero (BTN): $100.00
SB: $105.95
BB: $159.05
UTG: $85.90

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN with T of diamonds K of spades
2 folds, CO raises to $3.50, Hero raises to $10, 2 folds, CO calls $6.50

Flop: ($21.50) 5 of spades J of diamonds 8 of clubs(2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $10.00, CO raises to $25, Hero raises to $90, CO calls $65

Turn: ($201.50) 9 of diamonds(2 players)

River: ($201.50) 8 of hearts(2 players)

(Rake: $3.00)

So, i got owned pretty hard in that hand. I didnt post the results, so its not about that (obviously). Its rangewise. I thought, ah well, i have a gutshot (obv i havent), he can easily have 9T, i have that dominated, call. I posted this hand in the forum as well (without giving my hand, no need to embarrass myself... ;-), and the response to which range i should be continuing with was so damn tight (but so damn accurate i think), and i wouldnt have come up with it myself. So what am i continuing with? 9T has decent equity, should i have that, AJ might be close, but made-hand-wise anything below QQ is a stretch. His range is so heavily weighted towards value. Why? Well, QQ,KK have a good board, dont wanna a bard card to peel off, dont want me to check behind the turn. sets dont need to raise, but again, hes oop, i could check the turn, he then wouldnt know wether to bet or checkraise the river. Draws, on the other hand, he could easily just call, and check/jam the turn or bet the river if i give up.

So actually, his range is very polarized, but i have no reason to think hes bluffing. So its pretty polarized towards the nuts, which means, as i am gonna continue there with 9T either way, that should be enough to catch him bluffing (if he ever does it), and QT and such are very easy folds, god forbid KQ,AQ,.....

Oh, i need to repeat myself: I got owned. Hard. By him.

I really was in station-mode the past 3 days, so i need to be aware of that. Its not gonna help me. People are not gonna bluff less. It has no positive effect to call too often in spots where they have it too often.

Full Tilt Poker $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 954200
The Official Hand History Converter

CO: $100.00
BTN: $158.10
SB: $158.30
Hero (BB): $109.75
UTG: $88.00
MP: $100.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with A of clubs A of spades
3 folds, BTN raises to $3, 1 fold, Hero raises to $11, BTN calls $8

Flop: ($22.50) 7 of hearts 8 of hearts 2 of diamonds(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $12.00, Hero calls $12

Turn: ($46.50) Q of diamonds(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($46.50) 5 of diamonds(2 players)
Hero bets $25.00, BTN raises to $135.10, Hero calls $61.75 all in

Final Pot: $220.00

So, i played the hand tricky. I think its reasonable to sometimes take a line like that, 1) to balance out the times im check/calling light, 2) cause people will vbet pretty thinly themselves nowadays. The turn i think i should lead, as he is very likely to check the Q behind, but still can expect me to be bluffing there with AK,AJ. As played i think the river is a fold, i called for two reasons: 1) My range is weak, i rarely have better than Ahigh, and never better than one pair. 
2) He might raise AQ for value there (i doubt that).

So, i am gonna jeopadize my stack taking the std-line there for sure, with the line i took, although not my intention, i got the chance to get away from the hand, and didnt take it, cause i was too pissed at myself for getting me into that spot (or at the board to run out that way and at him for checking the turn).
What do we learn from that? If we take fancy lines (because we believe they are very profitable), and thats gonna make us tilt, we shouldnt do it (tilt is gonna cost way more than any non-optimal line).

As a bottom line, i still like my line there vs an aggro opponent, as hes never gonna expect me to have a strong hand and might easily try to barrel me. I just need to be aware that things can change, and not already see my stack in the middle.

Full Tilt Poker $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players - View hand 954205
The Official Hand History Converter

BB: $201.25
Hero (CO): $117.00
BTN: $243.25
SB: $112.10

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with Q of hearts K of hearts
Hero raises to $3.50, BTN raises to $9, 2 folds, Hero calls $5.50

Flop: ($19.50) 6 of hearts K of clubs A of diamonds(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $14.00, Hero calls $14

Turn: ($47.50) 7 of hearts(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($47.50) 7 of diamonds(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $35.00, Hero calls $35

Final Pot: $117.50

This, on the other hand, is a catastrophy. Preflop, ok, as he was 3betting a bunch in similar situations, flop, ok, as he was cbetting very often, but river?
I can be pretty sure that hes gonna play Ax this way very very very often, he might have slowplayed a monster, he could have hit with 7x. So, to make my call there profitable, i have to be sure he has about 2/3 as many bluffcombos in his range.
Just for fun: Every Ax would be 12 combos, plus 3 AA, plus say 8 combos of 7x. So thats 11+(12*x), with x being the number of Ax hands. Lets take just AQ(8), AK(6),AJ(12),AT(12),A9s(3). So thats 52 combos that beat me. So he needs like 30 bluffcombos, and as hes not gonna turn hands like KJ,JJ,TT,99,KT into a bluff virtually ever, i think im drawing pretty slim there.

If hes bluffing every combo of QJ,QT,JT there (and not betting the turn with it), i could barely make the call, but hes gonna bet the turn with it some, give up on the river some (particularly on this river), so thats not enough. Bad call. Umpf.

I actually think thats it, enough to think about, i feel very good now.

A sidenote: Have you read Douglas Adams' books? Try reading those about Dirk Gently, they are 2, its really scary how well he writes, how much he knows about music, and how logical hes writing about computer-related stuff. Also, how he works out some pretty interesting visions he seems to have had all the time. I wish i could write like that.


Posted By vegasmidas at 09:40 PM


Tags: hands Poor play



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