July 12, 2013

Fantasy football thoughts (7/12/13)

Yes I know what month it is. I’m aware that training camp has started, injuries will happen, suspensions will come down, average draft positions can ping pong all over the place. I’m aware of all of this, but frankly I couldn’t care less. I’m getting so pumped for fantasy football this year. Here in the state of Georgia there is a fever for football, professional and collegiate. We just can’t get enough of it. So with this in mind I’m going to throw up some ideas and thoughts and really hope to get feedback on this as a few DC coaches and posters are fantasy people as am I.  LET’S GO!

·         Drafting from the 4th spot in standard leagues

This is an interesting problem for me in some mock drafts (way too early for them I know) but the problem keeps coming up. Assuming I rank RB as #1 Adrian Peterson, #2 Arian Foster, and #3 Doug Martin (as is the ranking basically everywhere right now) and assuming nobody spazz takes Aaron Rodgers or Calvin Johnson; what should be my pick?

 

Rankings would tell you it’s one of these 3 running backs: Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch, CJ Spiller in a varying order.

 

The issue I have with Charles is fundamentally will he stay healthy for a full season. He is productive, only 27, and has a ton of skill. Above all of this, he has the best QB he has had in a while trying to take some pressure off of him. The thing is, I don’t trust Andy Reid to use him enough aka Lesean McCoy and Brian Westbrook. Also just because Alex Smith is efficient and doesn’t turn the ball over, I highly doubt teams are suddenly scared about Alex Smith beating them down the field even with Dwayne Bowe. He may have a good year but at #4 I really have some worries here. Personally I would prefer to minimize my risk here and pass, but I do see the potential.

 

Marshawn Lynch is in a great position on a great team. They have a very good defense, Percy Harvin should only open up more for the rest of this team, and Russell Wilson looks to be the biggest draft steal in recent memory for me. He is productive when he plays, but off the field issues play a decent role here in my desire to not take him 4th overall.  He may be facing a few games of suspension stemming from a previous DUI. This has always been an issue for him, nobody questions his talent, but similar to Charles I don’t love the prospect of taking a guy this early in the draft (4th overall!!) and not feeling confident that I can rely on him. It currently seems to be a common theme for people to go running back running back first and second round out of this position, and likely your second round running back will have some questions as well. I really would try to get more of a solid dependable guy here and take the risk Lynch may end up being beast mode still. It is just a risk I’m not ready to take at this spot

 

I really think the pick has to be CJ Spiller. While I’m not positive he will be the #4 overall fantasy RB, let alone the 4th best running back, I feel very safe to assume he will be a top 8- top 10 running back. I realize his upside isn’t as massive as some, but I think he has very little downside. Also, he has 2 huge things going for him that could lead to a big season: #1 With EJ Manuel as the projected QB rookie QB is so nice for him, likely he will not have to worry about lack of attempts #2 He is still young and hasn’t had to be the work horse his first few years. Coming out of college people were worried about injuries with him, but the fact he hasn’t been overworked yet leads me to believe the next few years could be his career years, and this is extremely promising. Clearly with picking him we need to hope that Manuel can be efficient enough, and we would need to see a huge step up from the Bills defense to hopefully lead to the Bills possibly running out the clock when ahead.

 

There are other notable people to mention at this position they are: Aaron Rodgers, Calvin Johnson, Ray Rice, Lesean McCoy

The reason why I'm assuming we don’t draft Rodgers or Johnson is that you need to be pretty lucky to have good running backs fall to you to fill out a complete team you like by drafting them first round. You do see Calvin go around 8 usually and that’s tempting but often times there are too many good backs to warrant this. As for Ray Rice and Lesean McCoy, I really don’t know why either aren’t getting more love. Both are consistent. Sure people may be gun shy about McCoy being injured last year and I’m unsure of who is going to play QB let alone is the system going to be friendly for him ( I assume so but training camp will tell a lot here). As for Ray Rice, not having Cam Cameron as his OC has to be an upgrade, talk about underused talent!  I really don’t dislike either of them may even take them over Charles and Lynch but let us just for argument sake say we aren’t going there who do you like?

Also this was fun for me to do so if I get decent feedback I may keep doing this not sure. Just had to kill some time so we will see

 

Posted By rrumsey at 06:58 PM

67 Comments

67 Comments:

soleztis posted on July 13, 2013 at 21:55 PM

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Working backwards, I think the Eagles were just too bad last year, they're bringing in an offense with Chip Kelly that may or may not work, hey don't know who their QB is, and of course McCoy's injury, so I think too much risk for 4th overall.

I'm also surprised that Ray Rice is ranked so low. Even if Bernard Peirce doubles his workload from last season, Rice probably still gets 20-25 touches a game, instead of 25-30. That's still 300 touches, so I really like him.

I actually like players like Rice, Trent Richardson, and Alfred Morris more than Lynch. Although his court case got pushed back, which will likely result in no 2013 suspension, it's his second DUI, and that behavior could have him suddenly non-existent in the middle of the season, if he were to have another lapse in judgement.

The Seahawks brought in Percy Harvin, who can both catch short passes (which will substitute for some running situations) and will get some carries. Combined that with the fact the Russell Wilson will likely be an even more refined passer, adds up to less touches for Lynch. Sidney Rice and Golden Tate are also significant red zone presences (12 combined red zone TDs last year)and we know that Russell Wilson will run a significant amount, some of which will be TDs. Given a likely shift, although maybe slight, in offensive philosophy, Lynch might not be as low risk as he might seem.

CJ Spiller is actually the top tier RB that I think is most likely to be a bust. Spiller has never started all 16 games or had over 300 touches, so it waits to be season, if he can handle that kind of workload. Although his numbers were very good last year, he was reliant on big games, mostly big first parts of games. After 16 touches in a game, Spiller's yards/touch drop off significantly. He is going to be in the backfield with a rookie QB, which rarely bodes well for an offense. Even though Ryan Fitzpatrick is nowhere near a good NFL QB, defenses had to respect the fact that he would throw down field a lot, and sometimes very successfully. If Manuel struggles early, it wouldn't be a surprise to see defenses implement a "beat us with anyone but Spiller" strategy. (We saw defenses do this to McFadden and the Raiders all year last year.) A lot of people have written off Fred Jackson because of his age and the fact that he was injured last year, but when he is healthy, he produces. Just last year one of the big fantasy questions going into drafts was which Buffalo RB to draft. While it's highly unlikely FJax ever returns to 2011 status, with Spiller's explosive style of running, it's likely that Jackson still spells him a fair amount. In a PPR format he might be worth the risk, but I might pass at the 4 spot in a standard league.

Jamaal Charles is now 2 years removed from a serious knee injury, and he produced like a top 10 RB just 1 year after the injury. He started all 16 games last year and only left early once with an injury that proved insignificant. Charles tallied over 300 touches on one of the worst offenses in the league last year and he still had a great year. The problem that fantasy owners had with Charles last year, was that he would have an abysmal game out of nowhere. With the addition of Alex Smith and Andy Reid, and a likely improved O-line I think those days are gone. A great RB in an Andy Reid offense, with an efficient QB and a top 15 WR adds up to fantasy gold. The consistency issues should all but disappear and, except for maybe AP, with Charles big playability and a nose for the end zone he might have the highest upside of any RB in 2013. I think the injury concerns of Jamaal Charles are overblown. He's shown he can carry the workload, he played a full season last year, and although the Chiefs might not be lighting it up, there's no way their offense isn't markedly improved over last year.

All in all, I think Charles provides the lowest risk and highest upside, exactly what you want in the first half of the first round.

(Yes I would only consider RB here, but that's an entirely different article.)




rrumsey posted on July 14, 2013 at 04:50 AM

Vanessa_selbst_woman_wins_2008_wsop

Solid post man the only thing about charles ill counter with is my basic concern about getting to be an owner of jamaal charles outside the prime of his career. You look at back that didn't even get massively overused early like michael turner and its shocking how fast they just become "just a guy". I know I am not getting CJ before his peak unless last year was in fact the peak. It's tough to put into words and i have no real evidence to point to but i just don't know how much longer charles is a top tier rb. But seriously good post i want to do a breakdown of a mock draft some "pros" did where i think they did some crazy things so i'll likely do this again.


rrumsey posted on July 14, 2013 at 04:51 AM

Vanessa_selbst_woman_wins_2008_wsop

and i think fred jackson is not going to stay in the mix too much longer in buffalo honestly everything is pointing to CJ being the man


rrumsey posted on July 14, 2013 at 04:53 AM

Vanessa_selbst_woman_wins_2008_wsop

also fitzpatrick gets written off as a bad qb i really never thought he was the massive problem there he just took a ton of the blame ( as most qb's do)


soleztis posted on July 14, 2013 at 19:25 PM

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"...i want to do a breakdown of a mock draft some "pros" did where i think they did some crazy things..."

Could really depend on the type of league they are drafting in.


soleztis posted on July 14, 2013 at 19:27 PM

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I don't thin kFjax is a significant factor, just one of many things that make me think Spiller is somewhat risky. That being said, I'm probably still taking him at 5 or 6.

In all honesty, I'm more concerned about rounds 4-10, as I think 1st 3 rounds essentially draft themselves, especially round 1.


rrumsey posted on July 14, 2013 at 23:03 PM

Vanessa_selbst_woman_wins_2008_wsop

Well a guy took jimmy graham over Calvin Johnson and ray rice in a points per reception league


PacoNicky posted on July 15, 2013 at 16:09 PM

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I wouldn't consider Spiller that high in traditional format. Not sure he'll have the goal line carries, plus Manuel should "steal" some rushing TDs as well. I like Charles and Lynch at that spot. I wouldn't forget Rice either but Spiller is only 8th on my ranking.


soleztis posted on July 15, 2013 at 18:01 PM

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@rrumsey that is pretty crazy. I can't fathom a format where that's optimal


soleztis posted on July 15, 2013 at 18:25 PM

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http://www.deucescracked.com/forums/111-Off-Topic/topics/607891-DC-Fantasy-Football-Leagu


rrumsey posted on July 15, 2013 at 22:44 PM

Vanessa_selbst_woman_wins_2008_wsop

PPR and i did it in a 10 team mock draft and got ridley and frank gore, gio bernard, shane vereen, didnt love my wrs but they were not bad either just getting russel wilson or andrew luck as qb, maybe romo if im unlucky


zachd2323 posted on July 16, 2013 at 22:02 PM

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Let's all settle down with the fantasy football talk. It's still fantasy baseball season and I got a title to win.


rrumsey posted on July 17, 2013 at 21:59 PM

Vanessa_selbst_woman_wins_2008_wsop

no! screw that!


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asimseo posted on August 11, 2018 at 17:10 PM

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