March 10, 2011

1st post, graphs and March

DISCLAIMER: I'm an awful writer, continue at your own risk! :P

This my attempt to start a blog... My main reason for this is to have a record of my journey in poker, something that I feel accountable for, and thus oblige me have to show results, analyse my game and trying to improve overall.

So, I'm 28 years old from Portugal and I work as an SAP (IT) consultant. I started playing poker about a year and half ago, after losing like 20€ in my first home game with some friends. I've never played any other card game seriously, but poker really got into me. My hobby at that time was the stock exchange and so, since I was a bit saturated of that and had heard that poker had lots of similarities, it seemed a natural transition. Plus I didn't really had time for the market since I work full time. With poker, I can just shut down the tables and go on with my life.

After the initials deposits -> busto -> repeat that lasted the first 3 to 4 months, playing a mix of tourneys, cash games and sits, I started to focused on cash games. The 5 months after that, I won like 12k €, playing mostly 50NL, 100NL and 200NL 6max. I didn't think I had the conscience at that time, but I was on very sick heater and started to feel like a god of poker.

Of course, my first downswing hit me hard and my confidence was shattered and I didn't react well to it. On those months of the downswing, I started to play less and less, really feeling the burnout and was hardly, almost never playing my A game. Looking at it now, I know it was inevitable and all poker players sooner or later, experience the same. We have just the get the most out of that experience, so we know how to deal with the next one a bit better at least.

So, on October  of last year I made a decision to withdraw the rest of my money from the pokersite I was on, and move to a new one, sort of a new beginning. Also, made a commitment to myself that I would stop auto piloting so much and just playing plain miserable, that I would really take and effort in thinking what's the best decision EV wise on every decision I had to make. It is really another thing when you are focused at the tables and really think about your game, the info the villain is giving and all the variables that come into play, and not just clicking buttons. So I've moved to the ongame network and started playing 50NL and 100NL 5max. The graph below are all my hands since I moved, excluding a few K hands from PLO and HU. This is playing between 4 to 8 tables, lately 6-8 tables.

tiny brag: [x] positive red line :P

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One thing I've noticed is that, when I'm playing my absolute best game, my red line has a very good looking up trend. On the other hand, when I start to auto pilot and just clicking buttons, it flats or starts going down. I think this is due to mostly bad calls on flop and turn, to just fold on river and not paying enough attention to be able to steal more pots or fire that 2nd barrel, 3rd barrel. Really something I need to watch closely.

Finally, March is being a great month and I'm runninng very hot EV wise, for change as you can see in the total hands :) . Not really many suckouts, but almost always winning those times when I put my money in good on 60-40, 70-30.

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 6500 hands of 50NL and 4000 of 100NL, more less.

The post is already long, so to finish, just want to post one more graph that shows one very big leak of mine. After reading this post by verneer, I filtered my hands for won/lost more than 70 BB's and the result was a bit shocking:

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Contrary to what the graphs of verneer shows, mines seem to don't have any correlation at all. I think that what this shows of my game is that as more money gets in the pot, I become more attached and unable to fold when I obvious should. And I also think that the difference between the winrates of 50NL and 100NL also has something to do with this attachment, as pots are bigger in absolute $. This will be a big target for me this month, improving my winrate on these big pots, should have a big influence in my overall winrate. For those that got this far (yeah, right :P ), please do the same filter and post on the comments your results. Would be nice to view some other perspectives.

so my goals for March are:

  • 30k hands (probably the hardest)
  • 3k profit for the total month ( + rakeback)
  • improve my winrate on the bigger pots

Thanks for reading :)

Posted By lmsilva at 03:06 PM


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