August 18, 2009

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold’em – 6 players
The Official Hand History Converter

MP: $61.00
CO: $98.50
Hero (BTN): $100.00
SB: $249.50
BB: $137.50
UTG: $29.60

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN with Q Spade Q Heart
3 folds, Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, BB calls $3

Flop: ($8.50) 5 Spade T Diamond 4 Spade (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $7, BB raises to $23, Hero calls $16

Turn: ($54.50) 3 Club (2 players)
BB checks, Hero requests TIME, Hero bets $41, BB requests TIME, BB raises to $110.50 all in, Hero calls $32 all in

Final Pot: $200.50

Villain is a 25/19 TAG, calls opens and 3b numbers are 13%/4% and 10%6% from the SB and BB over 1.2k hands His flop CR is 7% over 29 instances.

Preflop he’s probably calling something like 22-99, AJ, KQ type hands, and some suited connectors and maybe suited aces.

When he CRs that flop I think he could have: 44, 55, 45, Ax of spades, spades with a gutter, KTss, JTss, 67ss, and some other random 9 out fds without overs or any additional equity. I don’t think he has a TP type hand unless it’s specifically ATss as I think he would be more likely to ch/c with a hand like that. I didn’t want to get it in vs that range on the flop, but I figured if I called and had a good turn card that I would go with it then.

Looking back on the hand and my thought process, i’m not sure if my thinking is correct here and i’m not sure if i’m getting it in too light here. This is a range I plugged into pokerstove that given how often he calls preflop from the BB, which is around 10%, that his draws will be weighted towards the NFD which does have a lot of equity vs us.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

19,800 games 0.001 secs 19,800,000 games/sec

Board: Td 5s 4s

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.525% 38.53% 00.00% 7628 0.00 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 61.475% 61.47% 00.00% 12172 0.00 { 55-44, AsJs, AsTs, As6s, As2s, KsJs, KsTs, JsTs, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 7s6s, 54s }

I didn’t think this was a particularly unreasonable range when putting it in, but the numbers are much different than I expected, I figured we would be more like a 50/50 on the flop and a decent favorite on a brick turn. So should we be folding here on the flop or is the range I gave him way too strong?

Posted By STARSCREAM. at 05:14 PM



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