Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by NoahSD (High Stakes)

Time Link to 00:13:52

On the turn when you are checked to holding trips (or any strong holding for that matter) at what point do you feel the need to balance your floats.

I'm guessing that the regs at your level are accustomed to floats and employ countermeasures, mainly CR turns for value or bluff. Therefore don't we need our "float" range to have strong hands too?
Am I overthinking things to say that we need to randomise our play somewhat between checking back and betting strong hands when checked to on the turn?

Time Link to 00:27:18

AJ on JJ6. When he bets out small, you said it yourself that it includes a lot of air. Why are we checkshoving then? You said a checkshove is likely to get looked up by 77, but I'm not so sure about that. Sqz, then checkshove on this board looks to me like AJ or an overpair. I prefer calling his $200 bet, and checking the turn (hoping it's not an A or K, but whatever) hoping he'll barrel shove his air and/or his medium pairs. I think we get his $ when he has air or medium pps by slowplaying here a lot more often than by check/shoving.

Time Link to 00:04:29

If you're 100bbs deep here are you still peeling the flop or are you just going to fold because he can much more easily crai with a flush draw on the turn, or just commit himself with a large bet? Seems like a spot where with deeper stacks you can own him when he doesn't rep much but when stacks are shallower it becomes a lot harder for you to do anything about the fact that he reps very little.

Time Link to 00:10:18

Which other hands would you checkship on the turn?

What if the turn is a nonheart J?

Time Link to 00:15:15

You say that if it were HU against BB, then you'd bet small, but I think we should be betting big. I'm not sure about BB's specific tendencies, but if he's a massive loose passive fish, I'm assuming he's peeling really light pre and also calling our cbet w/ basically any gutter or better. So that means we're ahead of his calling range, and therefore miss value by betting smaller (obv we're ignoring balance issues and whatnot).

Here's the range I plugged into pokerstove. Seems reasonable right?

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.611% 55.56% 00.05% 72602 70.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 44.389% 44.34% 00.05% 57938 70.00 { 88, 66, AJs, A8s, A6s, KcQc, KJs, KcTc, Kc9c, Kc7c, Kc6c, Kc4c, Kc3c, Kc2c, Q9s+, J8s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s, 6c4c, 54s, AJo, KJo, QTo+, JTo, T9o }

On a more important note, what do you think of my avatar?

Hey Noah, good video as always. Would like to see another live play vid from you, something like 3/6-5/10 would be really cool.

Ended up with a rather long list of questions, hope you have time to answer

http://www.deucescracked.com/videos/1791-Episode-Ten?seek=207

Q9s bvb float of flop check raise. Does his turn bet size matter much to you here? If he made a larger bet like 3/4 pot would that change your play much?

http://www.deucescracked.com/videos/1791-Episode-Ten?seek=499

98s call of squeeze oop. Do you always open 98s here knowing that you are oop vs very aggro 3bettors? I often "standard open" this myself, but thinking it could be better to fold it with this lineup? Is it a case where if you open 98s here you should be calling 3bets as if you open a wideish range and fold a ton you're letting yourself being exploited?

Flop is obviously great and I think your reasoning for checking the flop is very good. What about if we were a bit deeper? Would you like a lead trying to induce some kind of bluff raise where we can 3bet shove and have him fold? Also if we lead it's basically a value bet against his calling range and we have a hand strong enough that we can check/shove turn happily and pick off his floats.

http://www.deucescracked.com/videos/1791-Episode-Ten?seek=974

A5s flush draw ip 3 way. You say that hu vs the weaker player you would bet small here. I totally agree on the principle that with a strong hand bet big and with air bet small vs someone that won't notice. Chipchucker 5 already mentioned that we're ahead of a good chunk of his range. In addition, with a hand that we are happy to 2 barrel almost any turn card with, most likely with good fold equity as villain (probably) peels flop super wide wouldn't we want to make a big flop bet to win more when he calls flop/folds turn?

http://www.deucescracked.com/videos/1791-Episode-Ten?seek=1620

AJ squeeze spot.

UTG is more or less in a push/fold spot preflop right? I know he called, but as you said that's a bit surprising. What do you think is a good shoving range for him here?

Great episode as always

SS,
I have a different opinion on that topic than most. I don't think we need to randomize our play and I don't think we need to balance it. I just try to find the most +EV play in every spot I play.

Of course, when I do this, I take into account things my opponents have seen me do and things that my opponents will expect me to do. But I don't worry at all about leaving my opponents ways to beat me. All I care about is trying to figure out ways to beat them. (If you think about it, the better your opponents are, the more these two things will align.)

So, yeah, a lot of smart people disagree with me, but that's my take.

TSB,
Yeah.. I'm still not sure about that spot.

I definitely disagree with the idea that calling is best even if he has a PP here. Saying 77 will always call a ship might be a little optimistic, but this is definitely a spot for hero calls (because his sizing is weird and might induce and because people don't really expect you to check strong hands 3 ways after 3-betting pre). I'd say TT ends up calling a ship here like 80% of the time, and I think a huge part of his preflop range is TT+. I don't thnik there's a huge difference between calling and shipping since we still stack him fairly often if we ship, but I definitely think that shipping is clearly best if he has TT+.

Basically, I'm weighing the fact that his flop bet looks very much like air (in which case calling is best) vs. the fact that his preflop call looks very much like a highish PP (in which case shipping is best).

Obviously in game I decided that he has a PP often enough to make shipping good, but I'm really not sure. There are a lot of variables here that I can only estimate very inaccurately because it's such a weird spot--how often he calls pre with someone other than like 99+, how often he bets this tiny with 99+, how often he bets this tiny with air, how often he'll barrel on a blank with air if I just call, etc etc etc.

So, yeah, not sure.

James,
Good question.

If I knew that villain were half competent, then I'd flat flop and ship over a turn bet 100 BBs deep on a blank turn (or check back turn if he checks and bluff at blank rivers). But with the risk that villain might just call with a flush draw without getting odds, I'd just fold flop 100 BBs deep .

Pees,
In reality or in theory?

I think the correct shipping range is AK or better. In reality, I'd probably end up shipping sets as well.

mr chucker,
Yeah, yeah, you're right.

As you know, that's a concept that I like talking about (and applying), so I probably end up talking about (and applying) it in spots where I shouldn't.

Ajeto,
Thanks for the kind words, man. GLad you enjoyed it.

So, I said in the Q9s hand that I wasn't sure if a raise or a call is better on the turn. I then mumbled a little something about how raising is sorta a value bet here because when he has a FD he calls and c/fs 4 out of 5 turns.

Let the record show that I definitely think raising is the best option for a few reasons:

1) The sort of "fake value" thing that I mentioned above. This is actually a pretty big consideration.
2) I actually end up saving money by raising when he actually has a huge hand. If he has a set and I just call, then he almost always bets river and if river isn't a heart and I raise. So calling loses me his two bets and my raise. When I raise, he usually ships and I fold, so I only lose his first bet and a raise. It's rare that he has a big hand, but that extra bet is worth a lot of money (depending on the sizing he chooses, like $600-1200 or so), so this is also a pretty big consideration.
3) When he does have a sorta marginal to strong hand like A5/J5/Ax, I actually think there's a higher chance that he folds it to a turn raise and river bet than to a turn float and a river raise. It's more likely that he puts me on a whiffed FD when I just call the turn than if I raise it. This is obv a small consideration because it's a small effect on a small number of hands.

Hey Noah, good video as always. Would like to see another live play vid from you, something like 3/6-5/10 would be really cool.

Thanks, man.

I'll keep your suggestion in mind. I assume I'll make another sweat video at some point, but can't make any promises as it's not up to me.

Ended up with a rather long list of questions, hope you have time to answer

Absolutely.

http://www.deucescracked.com/videos/1791-Episode-Ten?seek=207

Q9s bvb float of flop check raise. Does his turn bet size matter much to you here? If he made a larger bet like 3/4 pot would that change your play much?

Nah, I'm definitely raising if he bets like 210. Stacks are deep enough and my line looks strong enough that I'm still not very worried about him just sticking it in with a FD or whatever, and I don't think a larger bet really makes his range that much stronger (mainly because I think it's so unlikely that he's strong coming into the turn regardless).

http://www.deucescracked.com/videos/1791-Episode-Ten?seek=499

98s call of squeeze oop. Do you always open 98s here knowing that you are oop vs very aggro 3bettors? I often "standard open" this myself, but thinking it could be better to fold it with this lineup? Is it a case where if you open 98s here you should be calling 3bets as if you open a wideish range and fold a ton you're letting yourself being exploited?

Flop is obviously great and I think your reasoning for checking the flop is very good. What about if we were a bit deeper? Would you like a lead trying to induce some kind of bluff raise where we can 3bet shove and have him fold? Also if we lead it's basically a value bet against his calling range and we have a hand strong enough that we can check/shove turn happily and pick off his floats.

WRT preflop, I would definitely be calling 3-bets from anyone behind if it's not a squeeze. What made it close here was that it was a squeeze and was therefore pretty big relative to stack sizes. (Looking at it now, my call of the squeeze seems pretty terrible.) I don't think I've ever folded 89s in the HJ with these stacks. People would have to be 3-betting like total monkeys for me to even consider it.

Nice point about stack sizes postflop. My analysis on the flop and turn here have a ton to do with the specific dynamic of these stack sizes. If we're deep enough for a bet, raise, and a decent-sized 3-bet shove, then I would like leading the flop against most opponents for the reasons you gave.

http://www.deucescracked.com/videos/1791-Episode-Ten?seek=974

A5s flush draw ip 3 way. You say that hu vs the weaker player you would bet small here. I totally agree on the principle that with a strong hand bet big and with air bet small vs someone that won't notice. Chipchucker 5 already mentioned that we're ahead of a good chunk of his range. In addition, with a hand that we are happy to 2 barrel almost any turn card with, most likely with good fold equity as villain (probably) peels flop super wide wouldn't we want to make a big flop bet to win more when he calls flop/folds turn?

Yeah. You guys win .

http://www.deucescracked.com/videos/1791-Episode-Ten?seek=1620

AJ squeeze spot.

UTG is more or less in a push/fold spot preflop right? I know he called, but as you said that's a bit surprising. What do you think is a good shoving range for him here?

Crunched the numbers, and it's QQ+/AK. JJ isn't even very close, actually.

Crunched the numbers, and it's QQ+/AK. JJ isn't even very close, actually.

Care to share the numbers here pretty please?

Time Link to 00:14:42

Don't you think a large raise here is actually better, in that he knows that you know his range is virtually always just one pair, and it's hard for you have to have a monster, since it's so rare for anyone to get tricky and check back trips or better on the turn? So I'd think if he decides your raise is FoS, and he actually has top pair, he's equally likely to call a large raise as a small one.

Yeah. You guys win .

Unless DC has started some kind of "get a coach to admit he was wrong in a vid and get 5 free coaching lessons" promotion I think the correct response would be ""

Any discussion is good imo and any discussion leading to someone agreeing on one thing rather than a different thing is even better. Only an idiot would expect a coach to be right 100% of the time, you're normally right a lot more than not anyway.

Crunched the numbers, and it's QQ+/AK. JJ isn't even very close, actually.

I would be interested in this as well. I did some number crunching and with a 3bet/call value range for the squeezer of QQ+ and AK I figure you have to be bluffing 60% of the time for a shove with JJ to be +EV if the callers always fold. However I'm not quite sure how to include any preflop slowplay (mainly by HJ) in the maths as I really don't know how often that would happen.

I suppose if shoving JJ is +EV calling JJ is also likely to be +EV so it doesn't matter all that much, however if shoving JJ is +EV a shove with 77 is likely to also be +EV and 77 is a lot less profitable as a call and could be a good shove depending on your squeeze frequencies.

TSB,
Yeah.. I'm still not sure about that spot.

I definitely disagree with the idea that calling is best even if he has a PP here. Saying 77 will always call a ship might be a little optimistic, but this is definitely a spot for hero calls (because his sizing is weird and might induce and because people don't really expect you to check strong hands 3 ways after 3-betting pre). I'd say TT ends up calling a ship here like 80% of the time, and I think a huge part of his preflop range is TT+. I don't thnik there's a huge difference between calling and shipping since we still stack him fairly often if we ship, but I definitely think that shipping is clearly best if he has TT+.

Basically, I'm weighing the fact that his flop bet looks very much like air (in which case calling is best) vs. the fact that his preflop call looks very much like a highish PP (in which case shipping is best).

Obviously in game I decided that he has a PP often enough to make shipping good, but I'm really not sure. There are a lot of variables here that I can only estimate very inaccurately because it's such a weird spot--how often he calls pre with someone other than like 99+, how often he bets this tiny with 99+, how often he bets this tiny with air, how often he'll barrel on a blank with air if I just call, etc etc etc.

So, yeah, not sure.

Yea, I guess it all comes down to what range we put him on (as per usual) pre vs post. It just felt like he had air postflop and that if he didn't, it's more likely that he will STILL stack off on the turn w/ a pp (argument for calling) rather than call a shove w/ air on the flop, if that makes sense.

Thanks for responding!

Aj + knut,
I actually used software to calculate his correct 4-bet range, so can't quite show all my work since I didn't do it myself. Here's some stuff I plugged in:

1) HJ flats about 8.5% of hands with 75% JJ, 40% QQ and 25% KK+/AK. I think these numbers are very reasonable HJ vs. UTG.
2) BU flats about 17.5% of hands with 100% JJ, 60% AKs, 30% QQ and 20% KK+/AKo.
3) My 3-bet range is QQ+/AJo+/AKs/A2s/A3s. I wonder if maybe this is where you guys are confused. I'm not really 3-betting very light at all here because I have a very profitable call with a lot of the hands that are also profitable 3-bets (KQ,AJs-AQs,JJ, etc) and because BU and I are deep and he has position on me. I threw in A2s and A3s to account for the times when I 3-bet something I shouldn't.
4) HJ calls the shove with QQ+/AK and 25% JJ and BU calls the shove with QQ+/AK and 40% JJ. This is actually fairly significant. It adds up to about 11% of the time that he ends up getting it in with 36% equity if he ships JJ (and me still left behind).
5) After someone else calls, someone behind calls with KK+ and folds everything else. This isn't incredibly significant, though my preflop range is about 20% KK+.
6) When it folds to me I call with QQ+/AK of course.

With those assumptions, shipping with JJ works out to be -$45. That might sound sorta close, but I'd have to add about 16 more combos to my 3-betting range to make shipping JJ profitable, so it's really not close at all.


Chop,
I disagree.

Because we called flop and checked back turn, we really can't have air on this river. So when I raise river he has to think I'm either turning a made hand into a bluff to move him off of Ax (which is really unlikely both because people don't do it much and because with made hands calling >> raising here) or that I have a huge hand.

I'm not 100% sure on this because there is just the fact that people have trouble folding TP to a goofy line, but that's my thought process.

TSB,
Yeah.. that does make sense. I agree that the difference between a shove and a call is way more significant when he has air than when he has a made hand, so if I knew that he had air 50% of the time here, I'd definitely call. However, I think that he has air a lot less often than that because of preflop, so I think it's sorta close and I'm not really sure what the best play is.

TSB,
Yeah.. that does make sense. I agree that the difference between a shove and a call is way more significant when he has air than when he has a made hand, so if I knew that he had air 50% of the time here, I'd definitely call. However, I think that he has air a lot less often than that because of preflop, so I think it's sorta close and I'm not really sure what the best play is.

I don't remember stack sizes off the top of my head, and I do remember him being short, but if we think he has a made hand a decent % of the time that will stack off, I prefer to cbet small (again, if possible, not sure about stacks) to let him shove over the top. I think cbetting keeps our range as wide as possible whereas a c/r narrows it a good bit (at least, w/ my style it does). Even if he can't shove over the top, I prefer to cbet and let him call with 7s rather than expecting him to call a check shove. When we cbet, "he could have AK" likely enters a lot of players' minds.

Keep in mind that I'm thinking his range here is like almost always 99+ and he only has like 1.5x pot behind. So I'm not really worried about him folding to a c/shove. When I check, he almost always bets and calls a ship, and I give BU the chance to get involved. If I bet, he often just flats and sometimes can get away on the turn, and BU is way less likely to get involved. Plus in the fairly unlikely case that UTG has air, he's gonna be pretty tempted to bet it here because he can so easily rep an overpair.

Keep in mind that I'm thinking his range here is like almost always 99+. So I don't really think worrying about him folding is a big concern. When I check, he almost always bets and calls a ship, and I give BU the chance to get involved. If I bet, he often just flats and sometimes can get away on the turn, and BU is way less likely to get involved. Plus in the fairly unlikely case that UTG has air, he's gonna be pretty tempted to bet it here because he can so easily rep an overpair.

Sounds good. Thanks for the discussion!

Chop,
I disagree.

Because we called flop and checked back turn, we really can't have air on this river. So when I raise river he has to think I'm either turning a made hand into a bluff to move him off of Ax (which is really unlikely both because people don't do it much and because with made hands calling >> raising here) or that I have a huge hand.

I'm not 100% sure on this because there is just the fact that people have trouble folding TP to a goofy line, but that's my thought process.

I didn't mean to imply that we're perceived to have air in this spot, rather that we frequently do have a weak made hand which is no longer good, and that it's perceived to be more likely we'd turn a made hand into a bluff on the river than that we'd slowplay a strong hand by checking back the turn. I guess I just remember watching a vid recently by FWF where he talks about it being increasingly common for people to turn made hands into bluffs, correctly or not, and people just don't fold rivers to unlikely lines when they know that we know their range is weak.

Aj + knut,
3) My 3-bet range is QQ+/AJo+/AKs/A2s/A3s. I wonder if maybe this is where you guys are confused. I'm not really 3-betting very light at all here because I have a very profitable call with a lot of the hands that are also profitable 3-bets (KQ,AJs-AQs,JJ, etc) and because BU and I are deep and he has position on me. I threw in A2s and A3s to account for the times when I 3-bet something I shouldn't.

First off, thanks for a very good and in-depth answer.

If I AQ is included in your bluff(/semi bluff) range here AJo/AQo and A2s+A3s adds up to only 2.4%. This seems very low to me, if I was UTG I would quite clearly think that your bluff squeezing frequencies here were higher than that.

I don't squeeze a ton here myself, but is this really that bad of a squeeze bluff spot that we should have a bluff frequency as low as this? Care to elaborate a bit on this spot preflop and dynamics?

5stars as usual. Noah's Math Corner.
"How often does he need to be a fish..."

Chop,
I definitely think that people are turning made hands into bluffs a lot more now than they were a year ago (and I don't really remember ever seeing it like 3 years ago). And I also think that people expect to see it more. But increasingly common and common are different things. It's still very rare in most spots, and I don't really think people would expect it much in this specific spot because I don't think they'd expect me to consider trying to move villain off of TP with a goofy line with a hand that probably has a profitable call.

knut,
np. I like talking poker.

I guess in the video I made a big deal about how it's a good spot to squeeze, but what I meant to say is that it's a good enough spot to squeeze a hand like AJo, and even that is pretty debatable.

Like let's say I'm considering 3-betting here with ATo. If UTG ships JJ+/AK here, then he's shipping 20% of the time assuming he has a standard like 13-14% UTG range. (I don't think it's correct for him to ship JJ here, but he prob does about half the time and he prob finds another 3 stupid combos to ship to make his shipping range equivalent to JJ+/AK for my purposes.) Then if UTG folds, let's first pretend that UTG+1 never calls and he ships the same range, which he'll have about 10% of the time. So, .2 + .8*.1 = 28% of the time, we'll get shipped on here.

BU and I are quite deep, so he's probably calling 22+/A9s+/89s+/AK. That's over 60% of his original preflop range that he continues with here. So, assuming that he never 4-bets, our 3-bet equity is .72*(.4*120-.6*(165-equity when called)) - .28*165 = .432*(equity when called)-82.92.

So in order for this to be break-even, our equity when called needs to be $89.92/.432 = ~$192. I think that's probably about right, a little low, with a crappy hand like ATo OOP in a pot of 420 with like 2k behind.

So with my ridiculous assumptions that BU never 4-bets and UTG+1 never calls, it's a slightly profitable 3-bet with ATo. Drop those assumptions and it's -EV.

So I'm not 3-betting ATo. As for other hands that I might want to 3-bet like AQs or KQ. I think those are profitable 3-bets, but they're much more profitable calls. If that leaves my 3-bet range unbalanced here, I'm ok with that (see my first response ITT).

g_marshy,
. Glad you liked the video.

Time Link to 00:13:06

Hey Noah great vid it would be really cool to see another live session.
In this spot from the CO lets say you floated here and for some reason did not want to bet the turn. When villain leads out on the river and you have air would you still raise here? I mean him having an ace here I feel is discounted a bit because regs dont usually c-bet these flops unless he had A10 or A7ss with a little equity. This coupled with the fact that pair of aces is a really tough call does it make it a good bluff.

Time Link to 00:22:05

Hey Noah Great vid this is my second comment and it hit me after I wrote the first one. I wouldnt even bother commenting on this but you said that you really respected buttons game meaning that he is a good thinking player obv. I agree with you that the river is a crystal clear fold but how about a raise? I mean there are so many flush draws and better aces that he could be raising for value but folding to a shove. Its just like you said, you look so strong leading out that you have to have at least trips and since absolutely nobody expects you to turn trips into a bluff here I think it would be a snap fold if he had a flush. With a bet raise on the river you really cant have anything else except a boat and he would have to have a boat to call. I think he fills up rarely enough where shoving is profitable. Trying this play against anybody but a top thinking player is suicide but in this spot i'd love to here your thoughts.

bezzer,
Glad you liked the video. Another live session is coming up.

Yeah.. I guess if I floated the 689r board and then decided to check back the turn, I would raise the river. But I don't ever check back the turn with air, so I don't think that's very relevant.

Raising the river in the A5 hand is a cool idea, but I don't think it's viable here. The only boats I can have are A8s and A9s, so if he has the Ac in his hand (the only A left in the deck), that's just one combo, Ad8d, which I think he should be almost completely discounting on the turn. Even if he has a flush, I can only have 3 combos of boats and 2 of them are pretty much completely discounted by turn play. So I don't think he's folding much getting 2.7:1 on the river when I'm repping such a tiny range... definitely not the 55% that I need to make shipping good.

Just wanted to say thanks again for your in-depth answer Noah, answered all my questions.

Time Link to 00:22:12

re: the A5 hand on the AAK board
I think it depends on how confident you are in your reads/how good you think this guy is, but if everything you said in the video is accurate this seems like a decent spot to bet the turn and try to fold out other aces (and I guess get a little protection against a K with a flush draw)

if he thinks your range is entirely Ax, Kx, and flush draws (which seems pretty reasonable), and he doesn't think you'd bet the turn with Kx or Ax, well... seems like he could make a hero fold.

on the other hand trying to make someone fold trips is usually not a good idea, so I guess it depends on what you think of his hero-fold game.
-Greg

Hey Greg,
Man... I dunno if I've ever considered turning trips into a bluff without a 4-straight or 4-flush on board.

Cool idea, but it's no good here. I mean.. he's a good player, but like you said, expecting people to fold trips on this board is a little nuts even though it'd be good to fold small trips on this turn. Even if he did fold small trips, he's still got big trips which are obv unfoldable since I never have AJ-AK here and he has 10 outs against a flush, and then he has some boats and flushes.

Plus, I end up chopping with most of the hands I'd fold out anyway.