Poker Video: Pot-Limit Omaha by DJ Sensei (Micro/Small Stakes)

I like the equity analysis a lot.

The other thing to consider is that the equity shown is not flop to turn but flop to river afaik. That means the equity is actually ranging roughly from 55-80% of the value shown for the dog from flop to turn depending on the draw.

Time Link to 01:25:55

How would you rate the villains play with his specific holdings?
Considering standard 3b ranges mostly crush his hand, would it be a good spot for him to C/C? I don't think the villain should be expecting much fold equity with a C/R.

I find it quite strange that you didn't even entertain the possibility that your 3b with KQ87 isn't good. Fwiw you aren't an equity favorite against even the top 40% of hands and the connectivity between the Q and 8 is nonexistent (any time you flop a straight draw with it: JT, J9, T9, the QK combo always plays). o_O

How would you rate the villains play with his specific holdings?
Considering standard 3b ranges mostly crush his hand, would it be a good spot for him to C/C? I don't think the villain should be expecting much fold equity with a C/R.

Well, if he is aware that I have a wider range in this particular spot, his play is fine. Against a nit he's in a tougher spot, but he probably should fold hands like this preflop OOP.

I'm really not a fan of a c/c line on the flop because he just gives up so much on later streets OOP. What's he supposed to do on blank turns? Good ones? If he leads into me, I'll probably play perfectly, and if he checks, well, I'll probably be able to make him uncomfortable and/or force a mistake.

I guess the lesson is: if he's not comfortable getting 100bb stacks in on this flop, he shouldn't be calling my 3bet OOP.

I find it quite strange that you didn't even entertain the possibility that your 3b with KQ87 isn't good. Fwiw you aren't an equity favorite against even the top 40% of hands and the connectivity between the Q and 8 is nonexistent (any time you flop a straight draw with it: JT, J9, T9, the QK combo always plays). o_O

Yea, its definitely loose, but I did want to focus on aggressive play in position. Against opponents who are playing too straightforwardly and often weak-tight postflop, I think I've still got an advantage here with concealed holdings (i.e. on flops I hit they won't be as suspicious, and on flops I miss they'll often overestimate my strength).

You certainly don't need to 3bet this wide to maintain a strong winrate though.

There is no doubt that 3 betting any 4 cards IP vs weaker players should turn a profit, it just seemed that specific holding might get you in way too many shitty spots with reduced maneuverability given the low SPR created by 3betting preflop. On a lot of board textures betting and facing a c/r from villain will leave you either calling it off with terrible equity, but also committing enough money to the point that calling and going all in would be a few dollars/bb better than folding making it the correct play from that point at which you need to decide between calling or folding. I figured that for a skilled player, K Q 7 8 would play much better in a single raised pot with a higher SPR than in a 3 bet pot where your draws will be dominated quite often. I guess I would equate 3betting KQ78 in PLO to 3 betting A7o "for value" in NLH. That said, I'm certainly enjoying the rush content put out so far although would much rather see "Live Action Real Poker" on 4 regular 100bb or deep tables.

Hand review @ 1:21

I am sorry but your analysis is biaised in some way.

Considering the ranges you put vilain on(AA):
You call 24 otf to shove 25% of the turns. You will have 75% equity when you do so and 64$ behin.
So your EV for the call is (200*.75-64)*.25-24=-2.5bb
So it is a losing play even with AA.
And It's not close because we didn't consider the possibility of being completely crushed by AKsJXs or AQxxss...

I think a fold is best here and the maths agree with me

Hand review @ 1:21

I am sorry but your analysis is biaised in some way.

Considering the ranges you put vilain on(AA):
You call 24 otf to shove 25% of the turns. You will have 75% equity when you do so and 64$ behin.
So your EV for the call is (200*.75-64)*.25-24=-2.5bb
So it is a losing play even with AA.
And It's not close because we didn't consider the possibility of being completely crushed by AKsJXs or AQxxss...

I think a fold is best here and the maths agree with me

You need some work on your 'maths'. Specifically, as I have bolded in your quoted post, you expect to lose the $24 on every turn card, which clearly isn't true.


Our EV in choosing any action is the sum of the EV of the possible outcomes and their probabilities. So, our EV in calling the flop depends on the following outcomes:

Outcome A: We whiff the turn and fold to his shove. This happens 75% of the time, and the outcome is -$24, so the EV of this path is -$18.

Outcome B: We nail the turn and get stacks in. This happens 25% of the time, and the outcome is winning all of his money plus the money already in the pot 77% of the time and losing the rest of our money 23% of the time. So, .25 * (.77 * (136) + .23 * (-88)) = .25 * (104.72 - 20.24) = +$21.12

The sum of these possibilities is +$3.12, which is clearly +EV.


As for your contention that we don't consider the possibilities of him having a hand like AKKJ or AQxx, well, yes, those hands are not good to be up against (although the spades you give him are of no concern to me and my club draw, and AQ is categorically better for us to be up against than AA). However, you could almost always pick and choose some worst case scenario hands to make calling seem worse. I counter that he may well have a hand like T986hhss, which we are crushing, and he will simply give up after we call the flop. Obviously it is a very difficult task to consider all of the possible hands in any given PLO simulation.

My intention here was as much to show how one can use propokertools simulations and graphs to make equity calculations as anything else. Obviously this particular situation is pretty close to neutral EV either way, so the difference between calling and folding is somewhat negligible.