Hey, i've been learning poker for about a 2 days now. I knew the hand ranks, and how to bet and call before this but thts about it. Your videos are great man, i've learned a lot of faster than i would have without them.
I have a few qs though. Firstly, i'm a bit confused with regards to how you put the opponent on a range.
here's what i'm guessing:
pre-flop you narrowed it down to roughly
AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 88 (pocket pairs)
AQ, AJ, AT, A9, A8 (A and another card)
KQs, QJs, JTs, 98s, 87s (suited connectors)
Left out AK because he would have 4 bet that.
AA, KK, 99, 88, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac8c, QcJc, QcTc, JcTc, 98s, 8c7c, JTs, 76s
1) I assume that QQ, JJ and TT are out because he would have folded that hand, is that correct ? So, due to the fact that he chose not to fold his connectors (76, JT) because hes drawing to an open ended straight draw. i'm guessing roughly that a open ended straight draw is a better hand to have in this situation than a high pocket pair ? How then are we a decent favourite with KQ when compared to his JT and 76. Unless KQ is a better hand than QQ, JJ, and TT in this situation ? what are we hoping to draw to ? 1 king is on the board, we have one, so thats 2 outs, 3 queens so 3 more outs, thats 5 outs ? an open ended straight draw has 8 outs ? any help is much appreciated.
2) Also, pre-flop you didnt really narrow it down to QcJc. You said maybe AQ. I assume QJ is worse off than an AQ or is this wrong. So is it right to assume that he would have gone in before the flop with just a QJ, QT and even a JT)
4) also , what about KJ. would he have gone in on the flop with that ? in which case that would be a threat now too post-flop wouldn't it ?
i've made a lot of inferences from your tupac (awsome name for your method btw) method. I just wanted to get some sort of affirmation that what i've got in my head is right. Most of these are things that i inferred so not exactly what you were talking about but i just wanted to check if this conclusions i'm drawing are correct.
I learnt that equity is basically the percentage chance that you will win the game with your hand.
I also learnt that if you have a draw, we basically kind of assume that it will be the winning hand and as a result of that, we don't really need to know our opponents hand, making it really one of 2 situations that we can calculate equity easily. And that would be by finding out the draw odds to the river, which basically can be translated to odds of winning, which is equity, because we assume we will win with that hand. Then later we use reverse implied odds to take care of the scenario that we might actually lose even with the winning hand.
I also learnt that there is another situation that we can calculate equity easily and that is if we know our opponents hand, and it is a drawing hand. In which case we just reverse his drawing odds to become our winning odds. So if he has an OESD, his odds are roughly 4.8:1 and we are a 4.8:1 favourite.
so basically to work out our equity we put him on a range, match up crushing and flipping and that gives us a rough equity of 25 to 30 percent based on some sort of trial and error you have done on poker stove. Then we try and tackle the rest of the hands (combinations specifically) by using whatever tools we have such as working our drawing odds (to the river) of his drawing hands.
Are these statements correct so far ?
The only thing missing is how you got your equity for his hand of 2 pairs with 98. Which is my last question.You put us as a 3:1 dog. how did u estimate that ?
Thanks a lot for the help, i know its a long post and i'm only half way through the video, but thanks !!!