Sthief09 reviews two short 25NL videos, played a week apart by DC member Fanshawe.
Josh “sthief09†Plotkin delivers the fourth installment of one of our most popular series, “King for a Day.†Josh will review member vids at small/mid stakes 6max NL (25NL to 200NL).
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Time Link to 01:07:33
What about just leading the flop here? I think you are more likely to get value from worse aces from the PFR and often you will just get the pot heads up against the fish.
What about just leading the flop here? I think you are more likely to get value from worse aces from the PFR and often you will just get the pot heads up against the fish.
There is certainly value in betting out. However, on a board where the majority of worse hands are drawing to runner-runner, I'd really hate to forgo an opportunity to let someone bluff at it.
Time Link to 00:04:07
Hi there, I banned mysef from watching Grindcore and highstakes as I try to develop my fundamentals and here I am in my spare hour
Here with T9s vs 78s (calling oop) you will be happier calling multiple streets with T9 than 78 when you hit a top pair, is domination a factor you consider?
Time Link to 00:19:39
here we 5bb iso, get 3b 3.75-1.25 100 bb deep bu v sb v unknown fullstack, you say JJ is a fold. What's your stance on AKo if you say you don't expect people to coninue ith AQ v 4b which would make it -EV 4b call with your assigned range most likely?
Can that be a fold also?
Time Link to 00:21:24
limped pot, 89XsQA. If we have a draw/non showdown hand ourselves and we stab the flop, is this an auto 3barrel, even against big fish?
It just seems like I am getting called with weak stuff more than I should lately ![]()
Time Link to 00:22:57
KQo CO v bb against 2.35-0.75 3b, you say it's a fold unless you know he steals light.
Where is the cutoff where you do start calling KQo ?
1) 3b stat wise
2) Range composition wise (e.g. saw hm 3b polaried range hands like 22-66, 78s-T9s etc)
3) Tendency wise - e.g. we know he cbets too much but is solid
Even when I know a more or les unknown regular steals some 8%+ and I don't know much about points 2 and 3, my plan is pretty much call and fold flop where I don't hit a pair or a decent draw, and I usually don't make money over the long term when that happens
Time Link to 00:29:01
wow excellent the plot thikens
I don't think this will be as effective with a sweat video, but if you do it with one of the seek&destroy style analysis whereyou e.g. scrutinize a database for 3betting of a person in first half and then with a brand new sample from a month later in the other half I know I would be entertained and it would be useful in seeing how easy is it t apply the style that you teach and what prblems arise with it. Although it would take some pre-planning, I wouldn't lose the idea, people love thebefore&after stories and you usually get them only in the long term mentor style series, and even then the change is gradual and hard to notice ![]()
Time Link to 00:38:48
guys just one suggestion - table selection is awesome and all, but don't let a live video have 50 tables swapped in a session, it's sort of distracting and we get no reads/stats.
Is it possible to just maybe send a mini database of one session (i.e. just the cca600 hands) somehow? You can just skim them and decide which you will put in a video, I get that dynamic and ameflow is important, but you don't have any anyway in these short vids where hero tableselects a lot
Time Link to 00:50:46
hey I was always wondering this: (J8h on JQ63 with a fd)
When you say 'value bet' does that strictly mean '50% worse hands will call', or that we have >50% equity ?
PLO guys have this all the time, when you have a made hand with a draw, and because of the draw the equity against his range increases to >50% , but strictly speaking on one street he has more better made hands in his calling range than you do, are we still value betting?
Anyway thanks for he vid guys, I am hungry and have tut it here, I will check out older vis of king for a day when I'm bored. I hope you will do another series, it's a nice supplement for microgrinders.
Hi there, I banned mysef from watching Grindcore and highstakes as I try to develop my fundamentals and here I am in my spare hour![]()
Here with T9s vs 78s (calling oop) you will be happier calling multiple streets with T9 than 78 when you hit a top pair, is domination a factor you consider?
Sorry it's been over a week. You asked a lot of challenging questions and I needed to just sit down and answer them. Hopefully they're still fresh enough in your mind.
Regarding T9s vs. 87s, a couple of things come to mind. First off, there has to be some sort of line somewhere, where you're calling one hand and folding the next strongest hand. It seems arbitrary, and maybe it is.
I know I have a tendency of sometimes slightly losing sight of the differences in top pairs. A pair of Tens on the flop has greater equity than a pair of 8s. It's a simple statement but I think it's easy to get caught up in the thought that top pair is top pair is top pair.
This can be explained in part by domination like you say, but also just general vulnerability of your medium strength hands on the flop.
here we 5bb iso, get 3b 3.75-1.25 100 bb deep bu v sb v unknown fullstack, you say JJ is a fold. What's your stance on AKo if you say you don't expect people to coninue ith AQ v 4b which would make it -EV 4b call with your assigned range most likely?
Can that be a fold also?
It's just so dependent on the amount of 3-betting going on. I think the natural inclination for most players is to get caught up in the environment around them. If they see a lot of 3-bet bluffing going on, they're going to start 3-betting bluffing. If no one is 3-betting, they probably won't do it as much. I don't think that's correct (I like to zig when they zag) but I think it's the case.
So with that said, if you're not getting 3-bet bluffed then the reverse implied odds when you do call are bad. I've done some math reseach on reverse implied odds and further you are from the river, the more magnified they are.
Take some simple situation where you have 40% equity on all streets. You call 3 pot sized bets. +EV right? Well, you just put in a massive amount of money as a 60-40 dog. In the longrun, you'll be broke if you do this. That's sort of how I see this situation. Yeah, you'd call if he agreed to check it down postflop due to your equity, but in reality you're going to be on the defensive against a strong range. Not usually a recipe for success.
Anyway, long story short, AKo probably does have enough equity.
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.894% 38.02% 11.88% 304659576 95172708.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 50.106% 38.23% 11.88% 306353280 95172708.00 { AKo }
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.255% 56.11% 01.14% 294018108 5977434.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 42.745% 41.60% 01.14% 217992048 5977434.00 { JJ }
Problem is, against a strong range it may be tough to call a flop bet without top pair. When you have top pair it may be tough to extract value from underpairs. I wouldn't hate a nitty fold, assuming a tight 3-bettor without many bluffs in his range.
limped pot, 89XsQA. If we have a draw/non showdown hand ourselves and we stab the flop, is this an auto 3barrel, even against big fish?
It just seems like I am getting called with weak stuff more than I should lately
The turn looks like a good spot to give up, as it often is. This happens to me too sometimes. I get to the river and think "hmm I should bluff here." I get called, I think about the river afterwards, and ultimately decide that I made a good bluff. Problem is, my turn bet was bad.
KQo CO v bb against 2.35-0.75 3b, you say it's a fold unless you know he steals light.
Where is the cutoff where you do start calling KQo ?
1) 3b stat wise
2) Range composition wise (e.g. saw hm 3b polaried range hands like 22-66, 78s-T9s etc)
3) Tendency wise - e.g. we know he cbets too much but is solid
Even when I know a more or les unknown regular steals some 8%+ and I don't know much about points 2 and 3, my plan is pretty much call and fold flop where I don't hit a pair or a decent draw, and I usually don't make money over the long term when that happens
The more you know, the better. This is key. I think we get caught up in the specific tendencies but when it comes down to it, you can probably play more effectively against a solid reg with whom you've played hundreds of hours than against an unknown reg. To this point, I agree with your bottom paragraph.
A suggestion I've made many times is to slowly loosen up. Think about the #1 strongest hand you'd fold here. Maybe it's AJo. Next time, call with AJo. Maybe 2 weeks later, you feel more comfortable. Now call with KQo. Experience is so critical in playing 3-bet pots. You can experiment with things like floating and bluffraising small. You can steal pots cheaply by learning to maneuver in 3-bet pots. Like you said, calling and trying to flop a pair won't make you money unless villain is a complete spewmonkey.
wow excellent the plot thikens![]()
I don't think this will be as effective with a sweat video, but if you do it with one of the seek&destroy style analysis whereyou e.g. scrutinize a database for 3betting of a person in first half and then with a brand new sample from a month later in the other half I know I would be entertained and it would be useful in seeing how easy is it t apply the style that you teach and what prblems arise with it. Although it would take some pre-planning, I wouldn't lose the idea, people love thebefore&after stories and you usually get them only in the long term mentor style series, and even then the change is gradual and hard to notice
I do like this idea a lot, actually.
guys just one suggestion - table selection is awesome and all, but don't let a live video have 50 tables swapped in a session, it's sort of distracting and we get no reads/stats.
Is it possible to just maybe send a mini database of one session (i.e. just the cca600 hands) somehow? You can just skim them and decide which you will put in a video, I get that dynamic and ameflow is important, but you don't have any anyway in these short vids where hero tableselects a lot
I've done some session review vids and it does lose something. It's hard to put my finger on it, but there's something about getting the actual feel of timing, history, and just seeing how things break down. In the future I agree, too much table changing is not only distracting but we fail to develop history or real reads.
hey I was always wondering this: (J8h on JQ63 with a fd)
When you say 'value bet' does that strictly mean '50% worse hands will call', or that we have >50% equity ?
PLO guys have this all the time, when you have a made hand with a draw, and because of the draw the equity against his range increases to >50% , but strictly speaking on one street he has more better made hands in his calling range than you do, are we still value betting?
Anyway thanks for he vid guys, I am hungry and have tut it here, I will check out older vis of king for a day when I'm bored. I hope you will do another series, it's a nice supplement for microgrinders.
It's the latter, >50% equity. The opposite would be something like a pocket pair on a draw-heavy board. You may be ahead more than half the time, but you're either crushed or barely ahead. The result could be something as poor as 25-30% equity and reverse implied odds.
Keep in mind (and I said this a lot in Search and Destroy) that if you bet the flop or turn, and wind up folding the river, you didn't get value. Value on the river is simple, but value on the flop/turn is very complex.
Imagine one player has 77 and one player has QJ, and the board is 9s8s5d4d. The player with 77 bets OOP and QJ calls. 77 has a big equity advantage, but is going to c/f virtually any river card. "Value" is sort of a combination of equity and ability to get to showdown. 77 has equity against a lot of the draws that may call the turn, but unless it plans on making a lot of thin hero calls, it's not going to get to showdown often enough. It should c/f. This has sooooo many applications, anywhere from c-betting flops knowing that you have good 2-/3-barrel options to making tight folds on the turn knowing villain is going to be able to effectively bluff a lot of rivers.
Anyway, thanks for the challenging questions. I hope your quest is going well.
Yeah I thank you a lot for your answers, it is very much appreciated ![]()
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