Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by sthief09 (Micro/Small Stakes)

Time Link to 00:22:34

I know his c/r is pretty small, but would it be bad to just fold on the flop? Isn't his range for c/ring such a board in those positions just sets+ and hands like 9 8 ? To me, his c/r just looks really strong with BB still left to act. Maybe I'm too pessimistic
Great video btw.

Time Link to 00:23:39

Hey Josh,

how do you feel about the villains play on this hand? I think preflop and flop are fine, but in villains position on the turn I'm often confused. With a set on a 4 to a straight, 3 to a flush board I'm usually completely lost. I think we kind of have to bet the turn as we don't want the board to get even more gross and there may still be value from 2 pair, but what do you do if you get shoved on or called? Say the river is a 3o it seems pretty hard to shove for value?

Time Link to 00:27:43

Would you generally recommend folding 44 vs a BTN open?

In this instance the opener is like a 58/19 fish or something, would you advocate calling against him? What about against a regular?

Time Link to 00:45:32

could you expand on why you would raise AA if you were villain? If he has something like AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ, wouldnt flatting to let him catch a pair/potentially barrel be better? If he has QQ, then you might lose action on a K, 6, J or an unlikely A, but not everytime on all of those cards.

great video and tyia

I know his c/r is pretty small, but would it be bad to just fold on the flop? Isn't his range for c/ring such a board in those positions just sets+ and hands like 9 8 ? To me, his c/r just looks really strong with BB still left to act. Maybe I'm too pessimistic
Great video btw.

It's one of those spots where it just feels weak or premature to fold, but I definitely wouldn't have an issue with just mucking on the flop. We raised UTG and I think it's likely he wouldn't even c/r JT. Against the range of better made hands and strong draws, we're pretty crushed. I can get behind a flop fold. Not much good can come out of calling and seeing what happens on the turn.

Hey Josh,

how do you feel about the villains play on this hand? I think preflop and flop are fine, but in villains position on the turn I'm often confused. With a set on a 4 to a straight, 3 to a flush board I'm usually completely lost. I think we kind of have to bet the turn as we don't want the board to get even more gross and there may still be value from 2 pair, but what do you do if you get shoved on or called? Say the river is a 3o it seems pretty hard to shove for value?

That is truly a gross spot for villain, especially with the shallow stack-to-pot ratio.

In my mind, there are 2 options: bet small as he did, or check. Neither option is great and he's out of position, so it's picking the best of a bunch of bad options. Problem with checking is it obviously provides no fold equity, and it gives free cards to weak hands that happen to have equity (to a chop or 1-card flush). He might find himself priced in, drawing to his boat, and if ahead might find himself getting bluffed on the river.

A small bet has value (hero called AT), and I don't think he gets pushed over too often. Straights likely don't raise because there's minimal value in a raise and they might be drawing dead to a flush. Flushes might decide to slowplay. Even if flushes do raise, that's fairly rare considering 3 big diamonds are out and hero raised UTG. Overall, a raise isn't that common.

A big consideration is whether hero can turn that AT into a bluff if checked to on the river. If not, then I really like betting that 1/3 pot amount, and deciding to put no more money in the pot if the board doesn't pair on the river.

Would you generally recommend folding 44 vs a BTN open?

In this instance the opener is like a 58/19 fish or something, would you advocate calling against him? What about against a regular?

I'd play it against a BTN fish or tagfish for sure and I'd play it against a BTN TAG if a fish is in the BB.

Being in the SB vs. a button open, it's probably the worst spot for a pocket pair. First off, you're out of position and not closing the action. If you're squeezed even 5% of the time, that's enough to turn a marginal winner into a loser.

Also consider that a typical button open is a very wide range and if you do flop a set, it's somewhat rare that BTN will have a hand strong enough to stack off with.

Other considerations:
- how good is the open-raiser? the better he is, the worse it makes your hand.
- how good are you at playing out of position? if you're very good at stealing pots and picking the right flops/turns to check-raise, then you can create enough profitable spots to make up for the lack of implied odds.
- multiway pots: obviously makes these hands more profitable. it's a parlay of sorts. it's much more likely that 1 of 2 villains will make a strong 2nd best hand vs. your set than 1 of 1 villain.

some people say almost never fold pocket pairs, and instead 3-bet them if calling is -EV. I don't think that's a great reason for 3-betting someone if 3-betting other weak hands isn't profitable there. I do think folding can be ok.

could you expand on why you would raise AA if you were villain? If he has something like AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ, wouldnt flatting to let him catch a pair/potentially barrel be better? If he has QQ, then you might lose action on a K, 6, J or an unlikely A, but not everytime on all of those cards.

great video and tyia

there are clear upsides and downsides to both raising and calling. I've definitely done both things in similar spots, and it's often a result of reads and history. if you've been caught bluff-raising flops against villain, it's a good time to raise. if you've been caught floating recently, then that's a reason to call. if villain is known to be aggressive and will bet many turn cards, then that's a reason to call. little reads like that can quickly change it from a raise to a call, and vice versa.

but absent any reads or history, I do like a raise. it's true that those broadway cards may turn top pair, but that's not as often as you might thing. villain needs to both have that hand and turn a 6-outer. if even 50% of his range is overcard hands, and 14% of the time he turns top pair, this happens only 7% of the time.

the #1 reason I have for raising here is that I think you can get stacks in vs. JJ+, and TP is going to be willing to put in a lot of money as well. Those hands make up a bigger proportion of his range than usual since he raised UTG. A 1 pair hand like AA here is going to get weaker and scarier as the board develops so I'd prefer to just push my edge right here against most people.

but as I said, there are definitely factors that will make me want to call. I think it's close.

This video was probably helpful to Lucas, but I didn't get very much out of it. A lot of the hands concerned loose marginal plays/flips/coolers in big pots.

I'd like to see more discussion on small/medium pots that dont get to showdown. Players talk about how opponents "fight harder" for pots at higher stakes. I assume this means fighting harder in pots where nobody has/reps much.

Time Link to 00:20:54

Hey stief cool video one question tho:

You say that you can call OOP with JJ if you think he is getting out of line cause you crush his range. I get this concept, but if he is getting out of line then a 4bet should also be profitable correct? So this kinda works both ways both in favor of being able to call and being able to profitably 4bet.

I geuss it then comes down to postflop playability? Like a pair of jacks is more stable then calling OOP with AQ cause you have to hit a board.

This video was probably helpful to Lucas, but I didn't get very much out of it. A lot of the hands concerned loose marginal plays/flips/coolers in big pots.

I'd like to see more discussion on small/medium pots that dont get to showdown. Players talk about how opponents "fight harder" for pots at higher stakes. I assume this means fighting harder in pots where nobody has/reps much.

I can understand why some of these vids might have a polarizing effect on some people, since we're trying to zero in on the guest's leaks, which may not apply to all viewers. Lucas was unique, in that he's actually stronger postflop than preflop, and most of the errors I noticed were him giving too much action preflop. I can totally understand why this would not apply to you and some others.

Fortunately, it's going to be rare in that regard. Most videos will focus exclusively on postflop play, and those videos should apply to the majority of viewers.

Hey stief cool video one question tho:

You say that you can call OOP with JJ if you think he is getting out of line cause you crush his range. I get this concept, but if he is getting out of line then a 4bet should also be profitable correct? So this kinda works both ways both in favor of being able to call and being able to profitably 4bet.

I geuss it then comes down to postflop playability? Like a pair of jacks is more stable then calling OOP with AQ cause you have to hit a board.

Yes, I agree with most of that.

The issue in that hand was that I didn't think he really crushed the BTN's range. I felt he had enough equity and playability to call, and felt that was more profitable than 4-betting. In that particular spot, UTG vs BTN, 4-betting might even be a losing play. In my mind, calling is slightly profitable there. I could even understand folding if the BTN is a really tough player.

Against a wider 3-bet range, and especially against someone who will 3-bet and stack off with hands like TT or AQ, I'd prefer to 4-bet JJ OOP. Calling will obviously be profitable too, but being out of position without the initiative is really going to limit the profitability of taking a flop. On the other hand, if he's known to flat TT and instead 3-bet junk like 86s, that can swing it to a call. So overall I think it's close, and factors like those I mentioned, and push it from a call to a 4-bet and vice versa.

Regarding playability, I find AQ or AJs to actually be more playable. On most flops that AQ "misses" it'll have enough equity to call or even semi-bluff/protection raise sometimes. when AQ hits top pair, you'll often get lots of action from bluffs or worse made hands. I often feel tied up with JJ-99. on many boards, it's tough to get value with a raise, so I end up calling multiple streets OOP which is not a profitable situation against most people, in general. even though JJ has an equity edge over AQ, the player with AQ, and position and initiative, is going to have the advantage postflop.

Time Link to 00:33:02

Does the fact that AQs=TT here make it an okay 4bet? The guy showed up with AK here, but it's not necessarily the bottom of his 5bet range, right?

Does the fact that AQs=TT here make it an okay 4bet? The guy showed up with AK here, but it's not necessarily the bottom of his 5bet range, right?

I crunched some numbers.

Assumptions:
- MP opens about 25% of hands and stacks off with about 10% of that range. we fold to his push.
- CO always folds
- BTN 5-bets with 1 of 2 ranges: AA-JJ,AK -or- AA-TT,AK,AQ
- if all-in, pot is raked $2 (don't know if that's right but it's important to count rake)

Net results:
Everyone folds: +$10
MP pushes: -$14.50
BTN pushes; we win: +$54.50 (including -$2 for rake rake)
BTN pushes; we lose: -$52.50

Breakeven squeeze rates for BTN:
Tighter BTN stack-off range: 9.85%
Looser BTN stack-off range: 11.92%

So villain needs to be squeezing with at least ~10% of hands here for us to profitably 4-bet. We have almost 200 hands of aggro postflop stats, so it's possible but probably pretty close.

After looking at that, I think I'd favor calling since I'm confident that it's +EV. It's close though, between all 3 options.

Time Link to 00:27:12

I disagree with the analysis on this 44 hand. BU is a known fish (playing 59% of hands) which will make the BB squeeze range here wide. His 3B or Squeeze % don't mean a whole lot here except we know villain does do both and not for only value. Not to mention this is a great squeeze spot in the first place as both villains ranges are weak. IMO most aggressive regs (the BB is 29/24/8) are squeezing in this spot with KT+, QT+, JT+, 99+, A9+ and may even have a few SC or weaker Kx suited. Without the extra SC and Kx I mention that's 260 combos or ~20%. The pot is $9.50 with out rake and we are jamming $52.35, so if we exclude postflop equity completely we need to take the pot down 82% of the time to break even.

Here are a couple standard calling ranges for the BB and our equity vs. those ranges:

SB 32.73% 32.49% 0.24% { 44 }
BB 67.28% 67.04% 0.24% { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
40 Combos

260/40 = 84% of the time we take down pot preflop. This means this shove is +EV without including:
The 16% of the time we have 32% equity in a pot of $110.00 = $35.20 - $52.35 = -$17.15
So, our total equity = (84%*$9.50)+(14%*-$17.14) = $7.98+(-$2.40) = +$5.58

SB 38.53% 38.29% 0.24% { 44 }
BB 61.48% 61.24% 0.24% { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }
56 Combos

260/56 = 78% of the time we take down pot preflop. This is close to +EV but we need:
The 22% of the time we have 38% equity in a pot of $110.00 = $41.80 - $52.35 = -$10.55
So, our total equity = (84%*$9.50)+(14%*-$10.55) = $7.98+(-$1.48) = +$6.50

So, this clearly shows this to be a +EV shove.

Ok, You're thinking he doesn't squeeze ~20% b/c no one does. In this spot, I would disagree with you(b/c I would squeeze this wide or wider) but I did take the time to calculate the breakeven squeeze percentage and it's ~8.5%,if he's calling with the tighter of the ranges listed above. A 9% polarized range looks like this:JJ+, ATs+, KJs+, ATo+, KJo+. Keep in mind I'm leaving out any SC or bluffing combos which there are bound to be some.

Well first off, squeezing spot is significantly worse when the fish is opening the button than when he's in the SB. First off, he's likely going to limp a lot and not raise that often, evidenced by the 59/14 stats and 19% button open% (granted small sample size).

This situation:
Button opens ~20%
Hero calls let's say 30%, adjusting for the fish (and 3-betting premiums)

Flipped:
Hero opens 50%+ with fish in the blinds
Fish calls let's say 50%

So I don't think this is such a fantastic spot to squeeze. It's okay but it pretty much caps the amount of low-card hands, small pocket pairs, and possibly KJ type hands that just not that great against BTN's opening range to begin with and probably flat.

TT+, AJ+, ATs, KQ, KJs is 7.7% of hands FWIW. That's not to say that would be his 3-bet range, and he might even overlook the fish BTN opener, but I don't think it's a spot where most people are going to go out of their way to squeeze light.


Numbers:
Orig. Stacks - 54.35
Risking - 52.35
Dead $$ - 10.5
All-in Rake - 3


Range... Combos... % of all... Hero equity... Required Sqz Range
JJ+,AK... 40... 3.3%... 32.72%... 8.6%
TT+,AQ+... 62... 5.1%... 36.64%... 11.3%
JJ+,AQ+... 56... 4.6%... 38.53%... 9.3%


For me, those squeeze ranges are the breakeven %s for 44 to be +EV.

Other considerations:
- Considering we didn't 3-bet a fish, we just about never have AK or QQ+, so he should be snap calling AQ, which is bad because we'd prefer he fold.
- It's tough for his 3-bet range to get much tighter so that's a reason to err toward pushing, but considering it's not a good time to be squeezing light, it caps the amount of low card hands he can have, as I mentioned above.

IMO it's still a great squeeze spot b/c:
1) BU is going to call most of his opening range and fold to my Cbet when he misses. And when he calls the flop I can value bet him for 2 more streets when I have a hand or give up when I don't.
2) SB will fold and create dead money a lot of the time b/c his range is weak and b/c he's in a shitty spot OoP in a 3Bet pot.
3) Sometimes both will fold and I win the pot.

Summary, IMO a wide squeezeing range in BB spot sets him up for a lot of good things to happen.

But, I understand others may/do not make this play and that your range is closer to reality.

there are clear upsides and downsides to both raising and calling. I've definitely done both things in similar spots, and it's often a result of reads and history. if you've been caught bluff-raising flops against villain, it's a good time to raise. if you've been caught floating recently, then that's a reason to call. if villain is known to be aggressive and will bet many turn cards, then that's a reason to call. little reads like that can quickly change it from a raise to a call, and vice versa.

but absent any reads or history, I do like a raise. it's true that those broadway cards may turn top pair, but that's not as often as you might thing. villain needs to both have that hand and turn a 6-outer. if even 50% of his range is overcard hands, and 14% of the time he turns top pair, this happens only 7% of the time.

the #1 reason I have for raising here is that I think you can get stacks in vs. JJ+, and TP is going to be willing to put in a lot of money as well. Those hands make up a bigger proportion of his range than usual since he raised UTG. A 1 pair hand like AA here is going to get weaker and scarier as the board develops so I'd prefer to just push my edge right here against most people.

but as I said, there are definitely factors that will make me want to call. I think it's close.

would you 3bet/call shove with AA if you were vilain here? or its a spot to 3bet fold because the time he shoves, he has sets a lot... Here, because hero raised utg, there isnt a lot of better hand than AA ( 55, 77, TT ;and because 2pairs combos are unlikely to be raised from utg) and there is some worst hands (JJ+) that can shove over 3bet. Do you think hero should come over the top with JJ+ facing a flop 3bet? when vilain 3bet on this flop, its with a polarized range so I dont think he would call a shove with worst than JJ..

And what if :
hero raise from the CO, we are btn with AA and flat. Would you 3bet/call, 3bet/fold or just call the flop cbet on the same flop ( because you want vilain to barel a lot of turn card) ? Do the position change something? I mean, I want to know when its a good spot to 3bet/fold (because vilain's range is weighted toward better hands), 3bet/call or just flat overpair...Its one of my biggest leak I think and I never know what to do..

thx and sry for all the questions

would you 3bet/call shove with AA if you were vilain here? or its a spot to 3bet fold because the time he shoves, he has sets a lot... Here, because hero raised utg, there isnt a lot of better hand than AA ( 55, 77, TT ;and because 2pairs combos are unlikely to be raised from utg) and there is some worst hands (JJ+) that can shove over 3bet. Do you think hero should come over the top with JJ+ facing a flop 3bet? when vilain 3bet on this flop, its with a polarized range so I dont think he would call a shove with worst than JJ..

And what if :
hero raise from the CO, we are btn with AA and flat. Would you 3bet/call, 3bet/fold or just call the flop cbet on the same flop ( because you want vilain to barel a lot of turn card) ? Do the position change something? I mean, I want to know when its a good spot to 3bet/fold (because vilain's range is weighted toward better hands), 3bet/call or just flat overpair...Its one of my biggest leak I think and I never know what to do..

thx and sry for all the questions

Barring history and reads, I would assume a value raising range is almost exclusively sets. Maybe slowplayed KK/QQ would raise but that's heavily discounted. Without history or a crazy image, I think most people would assume raising JJ or AT is too thin. Basically that's a long-winded way of saying no, I don't like 3-betting because AA is basically a bluff-catcher at that point. 3-betting makes worse hands fold and gets us stacked vs. better hands.

For the 'what if' scenario, do you mean would I raise the c-bet? CO/BTN dynamic definitely does change things, as both ranges missed that flop more frequently. Bets and raises are more likely to be bluffs. I would be more likely to raise if I had AA in the button's spot and expect to get more action than if we were MP/UTG. However, history/image/reads trump all else in these spots. I also don't mean to say that I'd definitely raise in that situation, only that I am more likely to raise CO/BTN than UTG/MP.

I mean, I want to know when its a good spot to 3bet/fold (because vilain's range is weighted toward better hands), 3bet/call or just flat overpair...Its one of my biggest leak I think and I never know what to do..

The conventional wisdom, when in position, is to slowplay on dry boards and fastplay on coordinated boards. I hate blanket statements like that, and I alter my play based on history/image/reads, but it's hard to argue with it in most situations. If your default against an unknown (not fish) is to almost never raise a T75r flop in position, that's probably fine.

also, no need to apologize for asking questions. I like them because it lets me know that people are watching my videos, and also helps me understand where I need to explain things better.

For the 'what if' scenario, do you mean would I raise the c-bet? CO/BTN dynamic definitely does change things, as both ranges missed that flop more frequently. Bets and raises are more likely to be bluffs. I would be more likely to raise if I had AA in the button's spot and expect to get more action than if we were MP/UTG. However, history/image/reads trump all else in these spots. I also don't mean to say that I'd definitely raise in that situation, only that I am more likely to raise CO/BTN than UTG/MP.



The conventional wisdom, when in position, is to slowplay on dry boards and fastplay on coordinated boards. I hate blanket statements like that, and I alter my play based on history/image/reads, but it's hard to argue with it in most situations. If your default against an unknown (not fish) is to almost never raise a T75r flop in position, that's probably fine.

yes I mean raise the cbet.

-So on the same T75r flop, vilain played well by just calling his AA because we were utg and our 3betting range is pretty much sets..(and obv. its bad for him to raise/fold his AA )
-and if we were co vs btn, the ranges are wider and bluffs are most likely but when co cbet/3bet on dry board (like T75r), its not a bluff enought of the time to make a raise/call on the btn with AA profitable..

Time Link to 00:58:27

If we want to induce a squeeze, it wouldnt be better to just flat and win his cbet? because when he squeeze as a bluff, its with intention of cbetting most flop imo. And we are ahead of his squeezing range and IP.

yes I mean raise the cbet.

-So on the same T75r flop, vilain played well by just calling his AA because we were utg and our 3betting range is pretty much sets..(and obv. its bad for him to raise/fold his AA )
-and if we were co vs btn, the ranges are wider and bluffs are most likely but when co cbet/3bet on dry board (like T75r), its not a bluff enought of the time to make a raise/call on the btn with AA profitable..

yeah I think with 0 history and not much of a read beyond "he's a TAG" calling is probably better. I know I said the opposite on the video but I do think it's close.

I think CO/BTN is extremely close. BvB has the most aggressive dynamic so I'd definitely default to a raise there and expect to get lots of action. MP/UTG is probably too honest a dynamic for raising to be best, though KK-JJ are proportionately more likely for UTG (tight range) so that's why I think it's close, assuming KK-JJ don't fold on future streets. CO/BTN lies somewhere in the middle.

If we want to induce a squeeze, it wouldnt be better to just flat and win his cbet? because when he squeeze as a bluff, its with intention of cbetting most flop imo. And we are ahead of his squeezing range and IP.

it's similar to a regular raise/3-bet spot. sometimes we 4-bet and sometimes we flat. keep in mind a loose 3-bet not only contains hands that are bluffing, but often hands that are crushed (JJ,TT,AQ, maybe worse) so there's more value in getting stacks in preflop. there's merit to either play but against a loose but not crazy 3-bettor, I tend to 4-bet QQ more than I flat.

it's similar to a regular raise/3-bet spot. sometimes we 4-bet and sometimes we flat. keep in mind a loose 3-bet not only contains hands that are bluffing, but often hands that are crushed (JJ,TT,AQ, maybe worse) so there's more value in getting stacks in preflop. there's merit to either play but against a loose but not crazy 3-bettor, I tend to 4-bet QQ more than I flat.

you are assuming that vilain will 5bet shove this range after the squeeze. Do you expect most vilain to do that at these limit?

And btw, I only watched two vids but I like the serie..you covered a lot of stuff in each episode.

you are assuming that vilain will 5bet shove this range after the squeeze. Do you expect most vilain to do that at these limit?

And btw, I only watched two vids but I like the serie..you covered a lot of stuff in each episode.

If he 3-bet JJ/TT he's unlikely to fold it. I think a lot of people (especially a relatively light 3-bettor/squeezer like we have here) will 5-bet AQo against a backraise because it's often a bluff or a small pair. It won't always happen but it definitely can.

I am in this video for 30 minutes now.
I hope the player doesnt view this as an insult, its more something I have trouble with myself.

In the beginning of the video the player says he runs bad, after seeing 4 hands I have seen tons of spew.
What indicates the run bad? Is spewing just a part of running bad?

Another question: Lot of the hands are misplayed because of looking at the stats too much. Wouldn't it be better for a lot of small stakes players to just use vpip/pfr and try to develop reads instead of looking at those stats?

You say yourself in this video that reads come before stats and that stats doesnt tell you much. If you have VPIP/PFR you know what type of player he is.. isn't that enough?

Even a 3-bet % of 7 doesn't say what the range is, that comes from reads?

45 min: You say the nit can raises here with AA on T75 versus the UTG open from our 'hero'. Our hero is 23/17 and a reasonable player.
The nit is a 15/11 and he probably knows he is a nit. I don't think he can raise here and expect to get value from a T or even JJ, QQ.

A nit raising this flop = a set, always. So. Wouldn't he turn his AA in a bluff trying to make us fold...44?

On all levels raising the AA fr value on his part doesn't make any sense to me

01.03: 33 versus the nit. This actually shows that you should not put to much into stats.
I can see how hero's leak made him do this. If the nit had been raising a lot in the beginning of his session and just running hot, he might have had stats like the 31/21 player after 20 hands... So hero makes this move, and when the session is on its way, 200 hands later, the guy is a nit.

I am in this video for 30 minutes now.
I hope the player doesnt view this as an insult, its more something I have trouble with myself.

In the beginning of the video the player says he runs bad, after seeing 4 hands I have seen tons of spew.
What indicates the run bad? Is spewing just a part of running bad?

Another question: Lot of the hands are misplayed because of looking at the stats too much. Wouldn't it be better for a lot of small stakes players to just use vpip/pfr and try to develop reads instead of looking at those stats?

You say yourself in this video that reads come before stats and that stats doesnt tell you much. If you have VPIP/PFR you know what type of player he is.. isn't that enough?

Even a 3-bet % of 7 doesn't say what the range is, that comes from reads?

Well, the problem with relying solely on reads is that sometimes you play awhile without really learning anything. Stats+paying attention is better than either one individually. It can be tricky to use stats with small samples, but it is possible to glean small amounts of information, specifically in extremes (ie if a guy c-bets 7 out of his first 7 chances, that tells us he probably c-bets more frequently than the average player).

45 min: You say the nit can raises here with AA on T75 versus the UTG open from our 'hero'. Our hero is 23/17 and a reasonable player.
The nit is a 15/11 and he probably knows he is a nit. I don't think he can raise here and expect to get value from a T or even JJ, QQ.

A nit raising this flop = a set, always. So. Wouldn't he turn his AA in a bluff trying to make us fold...44?

On all levels raising the AA fr value on his part doesn't make any sense to me

I agree in principle, but the one thing you left out is what does nit think of us? I see nits get paid off by hands that shouldn't have even seen a turn card, so I don't think it's a given that a nit can't get value from regs without the nuts.

01.03: 33 versus the nit. This actually shows that you should not put to much into stats.
I can see how hero's leak made him do this. If the nit had been raising a lot in the beginning of his session and just running hot, he might have had stats like the 31/21 player after 20 hands... So hero makes this move, and when the session is on its way, 200 hands later, the guy is a nit.

For sure, but it's important not to dismiss stats either. There's a confidence interval at any given time. We aren't calculating it, but it's there and a small sample can narrow certain possibilities out or make other possibilities more likely. a player who plays 0 hands out of his first 20 doesn't have to be a nit, but it's far more likely he's a nit than a 31/21.