Poker Video: Limit Hold'Em by NinaWilliams (High Stakes)

Time Link to 00:09:31

This doesn't seem like a bad play to cr QT here since your equity is good and you can get full value from AK. I also don't think its such a bad thing to get folds from 2 outers in such a big pot.

That being said, I tend to overplay hands, so maybe this is a spot I have been missing. I suppose getting an overcall from the third player who has few outs makes up for value you could be missing by not raising and keeps you out of putting in more bets when behind....Hmmm

Time Link to 00:08:22

Wow, i typically fold the river here without flinching even though youre getting a million to one. Youre just never ever good 3ways. Save a bet imo.

Time Link to 00:19:49

How come no isolation on the left? Last time this scenario presented itself you folded Q6s otb which i also think is a raise vs a fishy limper when we have the button.

Time Link to 00:34:09

His bet-call on the river here shows you how bad he really is.

Time Link to 00:49:15

Oh rly?

This doesn't seem like a bad play to cr QT here

I agree. I compute that QTs' equity here is somewhere between 34-40%. And we certainly can't rely on button to bet again on the turn with AK or JJ.

Wow, i typically fold the river here without flinching even though youre getting a million to one. Youre just never ever good 3ways. Save a bet imo.

I think you have just enough to call here in the hopes the button is overplaying AQ or has the other KK. JJ doesn't make sense for either player. The ep player should always have a Q and probably not QJ since he didn't raise the river. I think you are essentially HU here.

If you felt the button would never cap the flop with AQ given the action before him and is capable of realizing his hand may not be good then this would be a solid fold.

It's optimistic, but the pot is huge and you only need about an 8% chance of being good.

I think you have just enough to call here in the hopes the button is overplaying AQ or has the other KK. JJ doesn't make sense for either player. The ep player should always have a Q and probably not QJ since he didn't raise the river. I think you are essentially HU here.

If you felt the button would never cap the flop with AQ given the action before him and is capable of realizing his hand may not be good then this would be a solid fold.

It's optimistic, but the pot is huge and you only need about an 8% chance of being good.

The button coldcapped preflop vs utg and hijack open raises, giving him a very very narrow range of hands unless hes a total moron. Then he bet and capped once it was raised-reraised on an extremely dry Q high flop. Its a lot to ask someone to do this with AQ, let alone ask both players to have Qx in this spot is just absurd. Youre right about always having the first player beat since his most likely holding is a strong Qx type hand, but we should assume that the button is very aware of this, and hes still betting. I fold this happily all day tbh, and i dont think its very close at all, even though pot odds are very tempting.

The button coldcapped preflop vs utg and hijack open raises, giving him a very very narrow range of hands unless hes a total moron. Then he bet and capped once it was raised-reraised on an extremely dry Q high flop. Its a lot to ask someone to do this with AQ, let alone ask both players to have Qx in this spot is just absurd. Youre right about always having the first player beat since his most likely holding is a strong Qx type hand, but we should assume that the button is very aware of this, and hes still betting. I fold this happily all day tbh, and i dont think its very close at all, even though pot odds are very tempting.

yeah, 2 people have never had top pair at the same time before.

Wow, i typically fold the river here without flinching even though youre getting a million to one. Youre just never ever good 3ways. Save a bet imo.

Wow I totally agree with Nina et al, that is a pretty bad fold to make.

Wow I totally agree with Nina et al, that is a pretty bad fold to make.

After some computation, I get that if we know that AQs is never in button's range, a call is a small mistake. If AQs is in button's range, folding is a pretty huge mistake.

Time Link to 00:23:03

should we consider capping the KQ preflop here

yeah, 2 people have never had top pair at the same time before.

No need to be sour and give a dicky response. I was just saying. But whatever ill keep from commenting your videos again.

Wow I totally agree with Nina et al, that is a pretty bad fold to make.

I cant believe that im the only one that thinks this is a an easy fold. I mean youre asking so fking much in this spot its ridicolous. For them BOTH to have top pair with this amount of action going in from two regular decent opponents is just asking too much imo. But whatever, you can call if you want, its not a big mistake since the pot is big.

I cant believe that im the only one that thinks this is a an easy fold. I mean youre asking so fking much in this spot its ridicolous. For them BOTH to have top pair with this amount of action going in from two regular decent opponents is just asking too much imo. But whatever, you can call if you want, its not a big mistake since the pot is big.

If button can have AQ:


Board: 2s Qc 6h 8h Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.727% 49.69% 04.04% 240 19.50 { KcKh }
Hand 1: 01.242% 00.00% 01.24% 0 6.00 { KK, AQs, KQs, QTs-Q9s, AQo, KQo, QTo }
Hand 2: 45.031% 42.24% 02.80% 204 13.50 { QQ+, AQs, AQo }



If button does not have AQ:

Board: 2s Qc 6h 8h Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 05.844% 00.00% 05.84% 0 13.50 { KcKh }
Hand 1: 00.000% 00.00% 00.00% 0 0.00 { KK, AQs, KQs, QTs-Q9s, AQo, KQo, QTo }
Hand 2: 94.156% 88.31% 05.84% 204 13.50 { QQ+ }




Pretty much if button ever has AQ it's a clear call. If I counted quickly correctly we are getting 18:1 or so on a call. We almost have the odds to call if button can only have QQ, KK, AA! All he needs is a very, very few combinations of top pair for it to be correct.

I buy the equity calculations based on ranges, i just think this spot is more than simple math. Would you still call the river here if it was you, chris and jeremy in this hand? (or 2 other players that you respect alot)

I buy the equity calculations based on ranges, i just think this spot is more than simple math. Would you still call the river here if it was you, chris and jeremy in this hand? (or 2 other players that you respect alot)

yes, because I think they can have AQ and play it the same way. We might have to agree to disagree, because I would never even consider folding in this spot.

I just dont think its that close giving the positions and the players in this hand are decent/tight. If it went bet/fold to us on the river i call 100% (not sure if that computes with what ive said previously), but once the other guy calls we know he has a queen, and combinatoricly the button should only have AQ if he has a queen, maybe a rare occasion he will have KQs? Idk. I`ll let you disagree with me, thats fine and i think thats healthy, but i fold here all day and i dont think ive ever thrown away a winner in this spot.

I just dont think its that close giving the positions and the players in this hand are decent/tight. If it went bet/fold to us on the river i call 100% (not sure if that computes with what ive said previously), but once the other guy calls we know he has a queen, and combinatoricly the button should only have AQ if he has a queen, maybe a rare occasion he will have KQs? Idk. I`ll let you disagree with me, thats fine and i think thats healthy, but i fold here all day and i dont think ive ever thrown away a winner in this spot.

I mean, I don't want to sit here and clog up this thread, but basically you've just said "you are never good here," and I've said, here's the math. I said if he has AQ you ALWAYS call, and showed the math. And I can't think of any games I've played in recently where it would be unreasonable to assume someone could show up with AQ in that spot.

With the 57s hand at the end, any thoughts on betting the river?

With the 57s hand at the end, any thoughts on betting the river?

its fine, i really thought his line was indicative of a showdown hand though. I'd expect most draws to put in a bet at some point.

Well im done hijacking this thread over one hand, but i guess i just go beyond the math in spots like this. And you dont. Thats fine.