Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by WiltOnTilt (Mid Stakes)

Re: Aarons hand

Can I do just a breakdown re Implied odds KT?

Pot = 1508
Turn bet is 1250
Effective stack is 4580 if he calls.
So 4580/1250 - 3.6/1 or 27%

If villian is ranging you somewhat accurately then your range is broken down inc. blocker effect of KT ( villians Holding)

Flop c/r - turn barrel range :
Value
10 combos 97 (All 97s/50% 97o)
12 combos Q9 (board block)
16 combos K9
4 combos A9 ( Assume aaron only semi-bluff with A )

12 combos J9, T9,89 = 36 combos

9x = 10+12+16+4+24 = 78 combos ( 11 uber nuts and 1 superubernut + 2 nut with redraw)

3 sets ( assumption 99+ in PF 3b range)
JT,T8,J8 ,QJ = 9 combos*4 = 36 combos ( Assuming aaron 100% barrels 2pr)

3+36 = 39 combos ( All Have redraws - 2 have 13 out redraws)

Semi-bluff FDs - 7 Ax ( Assuming aaron 3bets AJ+)
K7-K2 d 6 combos- ( not sure if aaron defends every Kx suited to 2.5x)
Maybe Q6DD Q7 DD ( maybe in BB calling range given 2.5x)

15 combos of draws

Assumption no rando air bluffs ( is this a good assumption dunno??)

129 total combos
Nut - 78 = 60%
2pr+ - 39 = 30%
Semi bluffs = 10%

Villians potential implied (value/bluff) cards
Best group (A,9 K, 8)
3 clean 1 dirty Ace
2 clean 1 dirty 9 ( discount 1 9 given a 9x bias in aarons likely range)
2 clean 1 dirty K
3 clean 1 dirty 8

11 good implied value/bluff cards
Average/bad group
3 clean T,8 = 6
2 clean 1 dirty q,J = 6
3 clean 1 dirty 7 = 4

Clean = non flushing
dirty = flushing

27 of 46 board complicating cards which villian may either value bet or bluff on

Of the 27
5 are clean value nut outs ( NON flushing A, 9)
2 non clean nut outs
Bluff outs
strong
3 Kings
Flushing Q,J,7 = 3
Weak
14 ( non flushing pair or complicating boards with higher than avg RIO)

27/46 or 58% have some implied potential
10/46 or 21% strong implied odds for value/bluff

Must have double counted somewhere its 26 complicating cards
So 20 "bricks"
5 of which are flushing which have potential
15 brick of bricks.

Unsure as to how Aaron would view these cards.

Its also important that we remember that some of the time there is RIO considerations for villian and his "implied odds" potential.
As well as - Aaron may in fact bluff himself and turn some of his made hands into bluffs. So we would need to discount some of those cards some amount.

Outside of Aarons range I think I took the wrong approach.
Umm need to think about the math abit more.

But here is my next bit of work on the implied odds KT

88,Ad9d,Ad7d,Ad6d,Ad5d,Ad4d,Ad3d,Ad2d,K9s,Kd7d,Kd6d,Kd5d,Kd4d,Kd3d,Kd2d,QJs,Q9s,Qd7d,Qd6d,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,Ad9c,Ad9h,Ad9s,K9o,QTo-Q9o,J8o+,T8o+,98o,9c7d,9c7h,9c7s,9d7h,9d7s,9h7s

25% equity
As villain our perceived range to bet/call – call turn = Pair + Draws( J9 T9,QJ KJ KT 89), Flushdraws ( Most every flushdraw given we raised the SB) that were not combo draws ~ 30-40 combos, as well as sometimes flopped nuts Q9, sometimes 97 – very few sets(3 combos QQQ), very few flopped two pairs, AA,KK and AQ (double guttered but not AQ suited).

Given the above is true – AND we think that Aaron never checks a flush when he makes one – then all flushing cards we can bluff. Because we have alot of flushing combos in our range and eff stack size + existing pot size makes it reasonable for Aaron to believe that we would continue despite not have the strongest flush combos in our range. i.e. when aaron checks a flush cards his range is an assortment of straights that he does not believe he can v-bet and 2pr combos that he does not want to bluff.
So 11 flush bluff outs for our implied odds. But I would hasten to add from villains perspective – if villain accurate reads ranges – he should know and account for the fact that aaron has some fd and that aaron will shove for value all his flushes – which means we should discount these theoretical bluff outs by how often villain perceives aaron has a flush draw semi-bluff as a % of his total range.
I would suggest its something like 10-15% so lets remove 1 flush bluff out.
We have 8 value outs A,9 – lets not place a theoretical discount on 9s.
Now two of those 8 outs are flushing – but given we know that Aaron would not checks his flushes on any diamond river – we can assume if checked to we should be able to shove our K straight for value. But there is some RIO odds on 9,A of diamonds if aaron shoves because there is a non-zero chance that we call when we make our straight.
16/46 cards we will have the opportunity to make or bluff our range. – 34% of the time (17 v 17% B)

Aaron or Jared - can you give me any pointers if you think this 2nd post is on the right track?

i think your range and analysis in this second post is pretty good.

I'm a little confused about this:

"Flushdraws ( Most every flushdraw given we raised the SB) that were not combo draws" - are you're saying you think he calls any bare flush draw on the turn? If so I wouldn't say that. I'd say mostly flush draws that have something else with them. pair, gutter, (except maybe NFD but I have Ad)

When a flush card does hit (esp if it's one that reduces his flushing combos based on my assumption he isn't peeling some bare fd), I'll shove the A9 to try to get him off a chop.

Might want to also account for some reverse implied odds on a T river. I don't think he's necessarily always folding trips on a blank T

Other than that, looks reasonable

WoT

Stack depth and position is not enough to allow him to peel again with a bare FD?

But I guess when talking about the implied odds of KT - if there is a discount in your mind as to how many flushes are in his range then that would make it less tasty to have this draw/float plan.
Re: I was thinking more not just vs your specific holding but vs your range in general cause we are talking about the merits of /draw/floating in general with KT, arent we? But I suppose Axd appears in your range quite alot - so that is a drawback.

Stack depth and position is not enough to allow him to peel again with a bare FD?

But I guess when talking about the implied odds of KT - if there is a discount in your mind as to how many flushes are in his range then that would make it less tasty to have this draw/float plan.
Re: I was thinking more not just vs your specific holding but vs your range in general cause we are talking about the merits of /draw/floating in general with KT, arent we? But I suppose Axd appears in your range quite alot - so that is a drawback.

if he thinks I'm getting out of line in this type of spot and therefore thinks I'm c/f'ing a lot of river blanks maybe he could thinly peel with like bare 5 high fd or whatever I just think in practice it doesn't happen very much but I could be wrong since I don't see their cards when I bet the river and they fold

I mean - with your whole range in general on QJT8 that barrels the turn - how many rivers are you actually ever c/c when you check. Seems to me if you are checking its to check/fold a ton. If thats not true - then I think this whole float with a pair and draw does not stand up - cause with that specific turn bet size setting a close to PSB on river there is 0-verylow chance of you bet/folding - and I dont think we can bluffcatch - so that just leaves equity + implied odds which I dont think we have.

I mean - with your whole range in general on QJT8 that barrels the turn - how many rivers are you actually ever c/c when you check. Seems to me if you are checking its to check/fold a ton. If thats not true - then I think this whole float with a pair and draw does not stand up - cause with that specific turn bet size setting a close to PSB on river there is 0-verylow chance of you bet/folding - and I dont think we can bluffcatch - so that just leaves equity + implied odds which I dont think we have.

yea pretty much agree

So if thats also true - then that would highlight pretty well the RIO odds on the flop call for villian. If its highly unlikely that a good 25/50 reg is c/r wet jt8 f boards and not betting the turn ----> then bet/calling the flop is bad cause a Q has to be above average turn card for KT and almost by extension it was a bad c-bet as no better hand folds and very few worse hands would c/c the flop.

On a different topic, I was playing HU with my girlfriend today and wanted some advice on a hand:

HERO T$32
GF T$8

Blinds: T$1/T$1

check/check pre flop
Flop: Q J 4

GF Shoves, HERO calls.

SHOW CARDS

GF shows J2

HERO says "UNBEATABLE HAND" shows Q2

TURN J

RIVER 4


My question is, should I wait to be outdrawn before I say "UNBEATABLE HAND" to outplay associated karma and enduce a suckout for myself?

On a different topic, I was playing HU with my girlfriend today and wanted some advice on a hand:

HERO T$32
GF T$8

Blinds: T$1/T$1

check/check pre flop
Flop: Q J 4

GF Shoves, HERO calls.

SHOW CARDS

GF shows J2

HERO says "UNBEATABLE HAND" shows Q2

TURN J

RIVER 4


My question is, should I wait to be outdrawn before I say "UNBEATABLE HAND" to outplay associated karma and enduce a suckout for myself?

lol... i haven't tried this strategy. mostly i've tried the UNBEATABLE HAND strategy when referring to my own hands (or hands of friends when we know what they have) and therefore the implicit rooting for the win causes the suckout. I'm not sure if the poker gods will be fooled into thinking you were actually rooting for your girlfriend after the J rolled off but it is worth a shot. Please keep us in the loop.

WoT

lol... i haven't tried this strategy. mostly i've tried the UNBEATABLE HAND strategy when referring to my own hands (or hands of friends when we know what they have) and therefore the implicit rooting for the win causes the suckout. I'm not sure if the poker gods will be fooled into thinking you were actually rooting for your girlfriend after the J rolled off but it is worth a shot. Please keep us in the loop.

WoT

lol I re-told the "unbeatable hand" story to one of my non-grinder friends (he has a very limited knowledge of poker, i.e. poker on TV) and even he thought it was hilarious. I can't wait to try this new technique of rooting for villain AFTER getting sucked out on! full-proof imo.

Hi,

in the first hand you're talking about watching out for which card of the flop texture brings the backdoor flushdraw with the suit. Can you explain a little what you mean by that? My first instinct was that if the top card's suit brings the backdoor flushdraw it's less likely for the barreling guy to have the flush draw since many villains like to 3bet BigLow? (Example: A 8 4 and the turn is like a T)
How does that differ from A 8 4 and the turn being a T?

Hi,

in the first hand you're talking about watching out for which card of the flop texture brings the backdoor flushdraw with the suit. Can you explain a little what you mean by that? My first instinct was that if the top card's suit brings the backdoor flushdraw it's less likely for the barreling guy to have the flush draw since many villains like to 3bet BigLow? (Example: A 8 4 and the turn is like a T)
How does that differ from A 8 4 and the turn being a T?

talked about this on isntant messenger so here's the conversation

[7:51:18 AM] Aaron: yea basically the idea is
[7:51:23 AM] Aaron: whether the person is the aggressor or the caller
[7:51:31 AM] Aaron: identifying what hands in their hand range are able to have the backdoor flush based on the board texture
[7:52:12 AM] Aaron: so for instance if i raise pf and you call and the flop is Ah 8d 4s i bet you call turn Kd i bet you call river is 2d I bet -- now both players can rep the backdoor flush pretty easily because the A isn't a diamond
[7:53:12 AM] Aaron: but what if the board is Ad 8h 4s and i open from CO and you flat in the bb, i bet you call turn 5d i bet you call river Kd i bet and you raise, now it's much less likely for you to have only a few combinations such as 78dd and 89dd, but the aggressor can have all the combinations of suited hands that picked up a bd fd on the turn
[7:54:05 AM] Aaron: coudlnt remember if this is hu or 6m
[7:54:12 AM] Aaron: but you get the idea
[7:54:15 AM] Aaron: its especially true in 6m
[7:54:27 AM] Aaron: so obv there will be more combos of mid flush than just 78 and 89 in hu
[7:54:35 AM] Aaron: but you get the idea