---

Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by threads13 (Micro/Small Stakes)

Time Link to 00:35:59

This is a good point about checking, I had some thoughts about this before and the bottomline is just that his range is weak when he checks back the turn and our range is obvious when we lead the river. But when we check the river our range is weak, his is still weak but its pretty hard for him psychologically to check behind a hand on the river he is certain is gonna lose.

Also villain will probably tend to go for pretty thin value when we ch/ch the turn and ch it to him on the river.

What are your thoughts tho about him probably psychologically also having a hard time to check behind with a hand that is gonna lose, I know I myself sometimes have trouble with giving up on a hand twice on both the turn and river. So it essentially becomes a good spot to induce.

This is a good point about checking, I had some thoughts about this before and the bottomline is just that his range is weak when he checks back the turn and our range is obvious when we lead the river. But when we check the river our range is weak, his is still weak but its pretty hard for him psychologically to check behind a hand on the river he is certain is gonna lose.

Also villain will probably tend to go for pretty thin value when we ch/ch the turn and ch it to him on the river.

What are your thoughts tho about him probably psychologically also having a hard time to check behind with a hand that is gonna lose, I know I myself sometimes have trouble with giving up on a hand twice on both the turn and river. So it essentially becomes a good spot to induce.

Yeah, I think that's another good point. It will feel like you are really weak and he doesn't have much of a hand so he will tend to bluff. It may be hard for him to check twice with no showdown value.

Time Link to 00:00:01

00:39:13 Surely this is a mandatory shove here? My thinking in these spots is "Am I committed?" i.e. if he shoves with better - will I call? - if the answer is yes, then I feel I have to get it in now - this way I get paid off when I'm ahead. I think it's better to let the villain make a tough choice with TP/worse kicker, than let him check it down with worse. In my experience I think the return is better from getting them to put it in bad than hoping that they'll bluff with worse.

00:39:13 Surely this is a mandatory shove here? My thinking in these spots is "Am I committed?" i.e. if he shoves with better - will I call? - if the answer is yes, then I feel I have to get it in now - this way I get paid off when I'm ahead. I think it's better to let the villain make a tough choice with TP/worse kicker, than let him check it down with worse. In my experience I think the return is better from getting them to put it in bad than hoping that they'll bluff with worse.

Which street are you referring to?

On the river - coach advising "too thin to bet for value" which is what I disagree with. Point is - if he has an (unlikely) 8 (or FH etc) he's shoving 100% of the time. This is a VERY common situation. So, the question is "am I committed" - if yes, then we are always paying off when behind, and we need to get value when we are ahead. I don't see many marginal hands that are ahead of us now (KK/AA is about all, as any two-pair are now conterfeited). So it's a clear shove to me and hope he calls off with a worse Q / JJ/TT etc... Sure he folds his 45, hh, etc. but we aren't missing anything from these hands anyway.

Of course, if you are a better player than me and you can fold to HIS shove here then check/fold is OK I guess.

The only time I think a check is OK is if we have knowledge that villain is aggro and will shove his missed hands, in which case we are committed but playing to induce. I think though, this is a less profitable strategy unless we have reason to believe he will take this line....

On the river - coach advising "too thin to bet for value" which is what I disagree with. Point is - if he has an (unlikely) 8 (or FH etc) he's shoving 100% of the time. This is a VERY common situation. So, the question is "am I committed" - if yes, then we are always paying off when behind, and we need to get value when we are ahead. I don't see many marginal hands that are ahead of us now (KK/AA is about all, as any two-pair are now conterfeited). So it's a clear shove to me and hope he calls off with a worse Q / JJ/TT etc... Sure he folds his 45, hh, etc. but we aren't missing anything from these hands anyway.

Of course, if you are a better player than me and you can fold to HIS shove here then check/fold is OK I guess.

The only time I think a check is OK is if we have knowledge that villain is aggro and will shove his missed hands, in which case we are committed but playing to induce. I think though, this is a less profitable strategy unless we have reason to believe he will take this line....

I think you're over-rating how often your hand is good. I agree that c/c is silly, but I think bet-call is too thin. We need to be good here pretty often. I do agree that betting is +EV because we simply only have to bet good here 25% of the time, but I don't believe it maximizes our EV.


I think check/fold is the play. We've taken a really aggressive line so I don't expect villain to bluff or bluff shove here. Let's take a guess at the math. Of course, these numbers are estimates. Feel free to play with them and see how much it affects the results.

Let's say he plays AA/KK like this on the flop and turn 50% of the time and always calls the river.

He plays AQ like this 80% of the time and calls the river 50% of the time.

He plays sets like this 30% of the time and always calls the river.

He plays KQ like this 40% of the time and only calls the river 30% of the time.



So, his range before we bet the river is:

AA/KK = 12 combos * .5 = 6 weighted combos
AQ = 8 combos * .5 = 4 weighted combos
flopped sets = 7 combos * .3 = 2.1 weighted combos
KQ = 12 combos *.4 = 4.8 weighted combos

Total combos: 6 + 4 + 2.1 + 4.8 = 16.9

Thus when we bet and get called:

KQ calls: 4.8*.3 = 1.4
AQ calls: 4*.5 = 2

Total calling combos = 1.4 + 2 + 6 + 2.1 = 11.5
Total folding combos = 16.9 - 11.5 = 5.4

EV = [(8.1)*(-$55) + (1.4*)*($200) + (2)($100)]/11.5
EV = 3

EV of shove = [(11.5)*($3) + 5.4($93)]/16.9
EV of shove ~= $32




Now, what if we c/f assuming he only bets when we are beat our EV looks like

EV of c/f = [(8.1)*(0) + 4($100) (4.8)*($93 + $55)]/16.9
EV of c/f = $66

Of course, he could sometimes do something like bet AQ or KQ on the river. That could change the math, but we have quite a big lead for c/f so I intuitively believe it would take him betting AQ/KQ with a high frequency for shoving to become better.

Nice analysis. I don't think check fold is too horrible (though I never do it here, unless I am up against a super nit). BUT I disagree with your estimate of what he may call with - I see him calling here with heaps more hands, and potentially shoving more too (to your check).

Your play so far is entirely consistent with a drawing hand. If you have a flush draw you may well play it this aggressively. So, if I'm the villain and I get shoved on now I have to think - does he have a missed draw 1/4 of the time? If so then a call is OK.

If you check, then YOU (potentially) are reping a missed draw - which he may now try to take away from you.

Take a look at the hand from his eyes - if you have an aggro image then you may be happily suprised by how light he can call.

when you check and get shoved on - you are in a better position than the TPTK hand you called earlier in this video. In THAT scenario you were facing aggression throughout the hand (if I remember correctly), so that is an easier laydown than this one where you look like you've given up on the river.

You've said that check fold is the play - which answers the question "Are you committed to the hand" - clearly not - so check fold is lower variance and may be OK.

As an aside - my instincts in this particular hand tell me - the most +EV moves are:-

1)Shove
2)check to induce + call
3)check / fold

but my analysis is nowhere near as strong as yours! :-)

I would say though - that I think he Re-raises his sets on the turn VERY often with the draws out there.... so likely he does not have us beaten.

Nice analysis. I don't think check fold is too horrible (though I never do it here, unless I am up against a super nit). BUT I disagree with your estimate of what he may call with - I see him calling here with heaps more hands, and potentially shoving more too (to your check).

Your play so far is entirely consistent with a drawing hand. If you have a flush draw you may well play it this aggressively. So, if I'm the villain and I get shoved on now I have to think - does he have a missed draw 1/4 of the time? If so then a call is OK.

If you check, then YOU (potentially) are reping a missed draw - which he may now try to take away from you.

Take a look at the hand from his eyes - if you have an aggro image then you may be happily suprised by how light he can call.

when you check and get shoved on - you are in a better position than the TPTK hand you called earlier in this video. In THAT scenario you were facing aggression throughout the hand (if I remember correctly), so that is an easier laydown than this one where you look like you've given up on the river.

You've said that check fold is the play - which answers the question "Are you committed to the hand" - clearly not - so check fold is lower variance and may be OK.

What do you expect him to call with? JJ? I think that is very optimistic. I understand what you are saying, but I disagree that we should expect him to call JJ here. It would be incorrect because we shouldn't have very many combos of draws in our c/r'ing range even if we c/r them 100%. If that were the case I would have loved the flop c/r and would love a river shove. I understand that you think he can be seeing this as a draw and call down with JJ, but I think most players are MUCH weaker than that and in this particular situation would often be correct to unless I'm known to flat with SC's and similar hands versus an UTG raise (which I don't like).

This hand would be entirely different if we had c/r'd this hand in a situation where he opened OTB. In that case I love c/r-bet-shove.

As an aside - my instincts in this particular hand tell me - the most +EV moves are:-

1)Shove
2)check to induce + call
3)check / fold

but my analysis is nowhere near as strong as yours! :-)

I would say though - that I think he Re-raises his sets on the turn VERY often with the draws out there.... so likely he does not have us beaten.

Agree that they don't take this line often. That's why I weighted them down pretty heavily.