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Poker Video: Limit Hold'Em by OnTheRail15 (High Stakes)

Time Link to 00:22:59

Would you expect your opponent to c/r 44-66 on this board? how bout 88? Would you always expect him to showdown AQ even after you 3bet his UTG open from the CO?

Seems like AK is a little bit too thin to bet here given he can probably have some pairs and should occasionally fold a hand like AQ.

Would you expect your opponent to c/r 44-66 on this board? how bout 88? Would you always expect him to showdown AQ even after you 3bet his UTG open from the CO?

Seems like AK is a little bit too thin to bet here given he can probably have some pairs and should occasionally fold a hand like AQ.

I'd expect most opponents never to fold AQ and to c/r most, if not all, pairs.

Time Link to 00:25:29

Am i too nitty for wanting to fold right here on the flop?

Time Link to 00:28:40

Really agree and good point on AQ really beeing a cap here or not, its gotta be reeeeeally close. Personally i think its slightly overplaying, but one thing that merits it is that you may get Andvari42 to fold a tiny portion of the time?

Time Link to 00:34:27

Not really relevant to this particular hand as the villain seems maybe a little fishy (?) as he is shortstacked and all, but AJo should be a trivial fold preflop in this spot?

Time Link to 00:53:16

Hell

Am i too nitty for wanting to fold right here on the flop?

I think so, but I could be wrong.

Really agree and good point on AQ really beeing a cap here or not, its gotta be reeeeeally close. Personally i think its slightly overplaying, but one thing that merits it is that you may get Andvari42 to fold a tiny portion of the time?

Fold what though? I mean incorrectly, of course.

Not really relevant to this particular hand as the villain seems maybe a little fishy (?) as he is shortstacked and all, but AJo should be a trivial fold preflop in this spot?

Are you asking me if it is? I certainly don't think it's trivial.

Great video again.

Am i too nitty for wanting to fold right here on the flop?

This was my initial impression as well, though I think I am biased to limits were ranges are even narrower in this spot.

I'm wondering if you had the T in your hand if it changes your play at all on the turn and river, given the number of potential flush draws is reduced.

Great video again.

Thank you!

Fold what though? I mean incorrectly, of course.

yeah im struggling to see what he could fold, something like 7x? Its really not that many hands he will fold though, so i stand by your comment that she overplayed her hand.

I think so, but I could be wrong.

I mean, are we ever in really good shape with 10s here once this much action goes in? What are we hoping, that one player has flushdraw and probably atleast one over to our 10s, and that the other player doesnt have a Queen? Seems pretty optimistic to me, and i am indeed very optimistic about my hands in general

Are you asking me if it is? I certainly don't think it's trivial.

More like a retorical question i guess. My new role has become stating the obvious.

I mean, are we ever in really good shape with 10s here once this much action goes in? What are we hoping, that one player has flushdraw and probably atleast one over to our 10s, and that the other player doesnt have a Queen? Seems pretty optimistic to me, and i am indeed very optimistic about my hands in general

Looks like I'm a bit more optimistic. I don't wanna be pushed around

Time Link to 00:17:05

Since villain should pretty rarely have (only one) T here, I don't see how JJ would become a raise on turn. EQ-wise it exactly worth AT against the range you gave villain (slightly below 50%). You'd need KK to hit 68% of equity, QQ is still at 57%. And all of those would dislike getting 3!'d on turn by a thinking player.

Or am I missing something that would make the turn raise +EV even with those EQ percentages? I assume you're not planning to fold JJ at any point here?

I assume you're not planning to fold JJ at any point here?

Why not?

Umm... since nobody ever folds an overpair in FL when it's heads up and the pot is big?

Or maybe they do, how would I know since they folded. Let's say I've never seen that done in a video and nobody ever confessed doing that in the forums

Umm... since nobody ever folds an overpair in FL when it's heads up and the pot is big?

Or maybe they do, how would I know since they folded. Let's say I've never seen that done in a video and nobody ever confessed doing that in the forums

It wouldn't be an overpair on the turn.

The board is 934T by turn... I wonder if we're talking about the same hand here.

The board is 934T by turn... I wonder if we're talking about the same hand here.

Oh heheh whoops... Yeah I don't think we should raise jacks here. Sorry if I said otherwise.

Time Link to 00:19:04

I think the turn 3-bet is questionable. From my calculations, given the most optimistic of our opponent's turn c/r range (2 pair+, all top pairs, all flush and straight draws) we have only 56% equity. Given that I think many opponents won't play top pair and flush and straight draws this way, I think our equity is closer to 50% and we will be punished by a lot of better hands. No?

I think the turn 3-bet is questionable. From my calculations, given the most optimistic of our opponent's turn c/r range (2 pair+, all top pairs, all flush and straight draws) we have only 56% equity. Given that I think many opponents won't play top pair and flush and straight draws this way, I think our equity is closer to 50% and we will be punished by a lot of better hands. No?

What range are you using? What you're saying doesn't seem correct according to my calculations.

What range are you using? What you're saying doesn't seem correct according to my calculations.

Yeah 3betting this turn is actually quite the fistpump for me, its such an obvious slowplay spot people use (badly i think but thats another case) to play their top pair hands, and with our hand i think this is pretty easy actually.

Looks like I'm a bit more optimistic. I don't wanna be pushed around

I mean, im as optimistic as the next guy. I used to 3bet this spot sooo much more before, now i dont do it as much, and i really dont feel like ive given up anything by simply stepping out.

What range are you using? What you're saying doesn't seem correct according to my calculations.

I used this for villain's opening range 55+,A7s+,A9o+,K9s+,KQo,QTs+,J9s+,T9s+,98s+ (which I realize is standard/tight - what I meant by optimistic range is that he often won't play a draw or less than tp/tk like this). If I lower his offsuit kings down to KTo+ our equity increases to 65.4%. But, as I said, not everyone will be going for a turn c/r with a draw or top pair with a relatively marginal kicker so I believe these can be discounted somewhat.

Also, if he is on a draw, we won't necessarily be winning any more money on average by 3-betting the turn as opposed to calling down.

I used this for villain's opening range 55+,A7s+,A9o+,K9s+,KQo,QTs+,J9s+,T9s+,98s+ (which I realize is standard/tight - what I meant by optimistic range is that he often won't play a draw or less than tp/tk like this). If I lower his offsuit kings down to KTo+ our equity increases to 65.4%. But, as I said, not everyone will be going for a turn c/r with a draw or top pair with a relatively marginal kicker so I believe these can be discounted somewhat.

Also, if he is on a draw, we won't necessarily be winning any more money on average by 3-betting the turn as opposed to calling down.

Still trying to figure out how this range gets you down between 50-55%. I guess you just took out all his Kx hands that weren't TPTK? I think that's a stretch, and it's worth noting that he did show up with KJ.

It's also worth noting that we're pretty indifferent to what he does with his flush draws, I think, as far as our hand vs his range goes.

Still trying to figure out how this range gets you down between 50-55%. I guess you just took out all his Kx hands that weren't TPTK? I think that's a stretch, and it's worth noting that he did show up with KJ.

It's also worth noting that we're pretty indifferent to what he does with his flush draws, I think, as far as our hand vs his range goes.

The 56% equity I'm getting includes all top pairs from the opening range I listed (which I recognize is too tight for this opponent), not just TPTK. It's certainly possible I'm making a mistake somewhere in my calculations. I'm using CR-EV calculator to get these numbers.

When I extend suited kings of villain's range down to K7s and offsuit kings to KTo and pairs down to 22+ I get our equity at 63%.

What do you think villain's opening range should be? What equity do you compute given that range? What should our minimum equity be for a 3-bet to be correct?

Time Link to 00:40:17

You mention here you'd probably wait until the turn with Reshef's hand but I'm not sure if you remembered that Pist was in on the flop too.
I personally would opt for protection here in Reshefs spot over deception or balance and raise the flop like Reshef did as I really wouldn't want Pist peeling with some 2 broadway hand that I could likely just get rid of right now by raising in what's already a decently sized pot.
Is there something else that I'm not factoring in here though?
Do you think balance is especially important for Reshef here due to the, most likely very value orientated, narrowness of Reshefs range when 3betting an UTG opener pre-f and then waiting until the turn on a fairly unscary flop (unscary in that it's just a 1 broadway flop and a Q and not a 2/3 broadway flop or an A or K which would all smack the other 2 players ranges that bit harder) or something along those lines?

You mention here you'd probably wait until the turn with Reshef's hand but I'm not sure if you remembered that Pist was in on the flop too.
I personally would opt for protection here in Reshefs spot over deception or balance and raise the flop like Reshef did as I really wouldn't want Pist peeling with some 2 broadway hand that I could likely just get rid of right now by raising in what's already a decently sized pot.
Is there something else that I'm not factoring in here though?
Do you think balance is especially important for Reshef here due to the, most likely very value orientated, narrowness of Reshefs range when 3betting an UTG opener pre-f and then waiting until the turn on a fairly unscary flop (unscary in that it's just a 1 broadway flop and a Q and not a 2/3 broadway flop or an A or K which would all smack the other 2 players ranges that bit harder) or something along those lines?

First of all, and this is something I didn't mention in the video, Reshef's preflop is pretty bad here. Secondly, it's probably pretty close with his exact hand since PISTOFF is going to be drawing very slim (and when he does get there he's easily beaten) with all the hands he'd fold to a raise. That being said, by calling he's offering him 14-1 on a flop call and by raising it'd be more like 7.5-1 so maybe raising is better, but either way he'd be allowing PISTOFF to play really well against his exact hand.

I'm also pretty sure I forgot that it was 3 handed when I made that comment.

Yeh I agree Reshefs opening is too light, I didn't bother mentioning it just because I thought it should be pretty obvious, I was just more interested in the 'what if' scenario.
The more I think about postflop though the more I can see the merits of waiting until the turn.
If we do just call the flop and PISTOFF is holding one of those broadway hands that would of folded to a flop raise at best he has 5 outs (since he's never folding a FD on the flop but may fold something like KJ) and even if he does spike one of those on the turn we very likely have 14 clean outs on the river.
I guess though there are certain other turns that can come that will give him a gutter or straight draw + pair outs though which are pretty nasty vs our 78s (giving him roughly 11 outs (say a T turn and he holds KJ) vs our hand and the right odds to call if we raise the turn). As you say though it's definitely better for the rest of our range if we wait until the turn and can perhaps pick up an extra bet from PIST when he improves to a hand we already have beat on the turn and then also will most likely call a river bet so yeh I can deinitely see merits in waiting until the turn with 78s though I'd probably take the safer face up line and raise the flop here with something like 66-TT.
That's something I'll have to think more about in general.
Great series too BTW.