Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by jk3a (Micro/Small Stakes)

I like the following form for EV if called more:

ev = -180 + 37% ($400) instead of ev = 37%($220) + 63%(-$180)

I think it's more straight forward, you see what you risk, your equity and the whole pot.

You didn't mention that while our equity shoving AT is worse, we won't get called as often since we block two of the cards that he needs to call. Therefore our fold equity is better.

In fact, since we don't block anything with 95s, he would call a little more, because on average every time he gets 5bet there will be a partial blocker involved.

Your math is i believe wrong due to an incorrect assumption. When BTN is 4-beting 10% of the time it does not mean he is 4-betting 10% range , it means he 4-bets 10% of the times he is 3-bet.
So if BTN opens 50% of hands and 4-bets 10% it means he is 4-betting 10% of those 50% of hands which is 5% of all hands. So he is folding only (5-4.7)/5=0.3/5 = 6% of the time. With this low FE we need to do math all over.

Is your 10% 4bet actually 4bet-range of 10% (also available in HEM) or actual 4bet%? If it's 4bet%, his 4bet range is actually 10% of total opening range. It may deviate when he's on button, but if he's actually 4betting 10% of his stealing range of 50% that equals only 5% leaving us no fold equity.

Is your 10% 4bet actually 4bet-range of 10% (also available in HEM) or actual 4bet%? If it's 4bet%, his 4bet range is actually 10% of total opening range. It may deviate when he's on button, but if he's actually 4betting 10% of his stealing range of 50% that equals only 5% leaving us no fold equity.

I realize the diff between 4bet % and 4bet range. The 4bet % # is all encompassing for every time he gets 3bet, right? So for the example, I'm assuming he's 4betting a total of 10% of hands.

Sorry if the way I said it was confusing or misleading. Unless HEM has a 4bet by position stat, I'm not sure we can get an exact 4betting % on the btn just by using 4bet % and steal %.

Also, it's just an example to give everyone an idea of what 5 bet shoving ev looks like. For example I know that my btn steal is over 50 at 6max and my 4bet % is actually 10 thru a large sample and I 4 bet bluff a bunch.

I like the following form for EV if called more:

ev = -180 + 37% ($400) instead of ev = 37%($220) + 63%(-$180)

I think it's more straight forward, you see what you risk, your equity and the whole pot.

You didn't mention that while our equity shoving AT is worse, we won't get called as often since we block two of the cards that he needs to call. Therefore our fold equity is better.

In fact, since we don't block anything with 95s, he would call a little more, because on average every time he gets 5bet there will be a partial blocker involved.

good point about card removal, when we have an Ax hand, we eliminate 4 combos each from their Ax value range. However, you didn't mention that having Ax also will theoretically reduce the number of ways he's bluffing since alot of people like to use Ax to 4bet bluff . Not sure what the net result is, nor if it matters.

your ev calc def might look more clean/be easier to understand for some. I mentioned at the end of the vid that there are other ways.

I realize the diff between 4bet % and 4bet range. The 4bet % # is all encompassing for every time he gets 3bet, right? So for the example, I'm assuming he's 4betting a total of 10% of hands.

Sorry if the way I said it was confusing or misleading. Unless HEM has a 4bet by position stat, I'm not sure we can get an exact 4betting % on the btn just by using 4bet % and steal %.

Also, it's just an example to give everyone an idea of what 5 bet shoving ev looks like. For example I know that my btn steal is over 50 at 6max and my 4bet % is actually 10 thru a large sample and I 4 bet bluff a bunch.

If your 4bet% in holdem manager is 10, it means you are 4betting 10% of your opening range. So say you are stealing something like 60% on the button, you are only 4betting 6% of hands. In reality it is probably more than 6% of hands because you 4bet more on the button than other positions but you get the point. In order for your equity calcs to be correct you need to use the 4bet-range statistic in holdem manager, not the 4bet%.

If your 4bet% in holdem manager is 10, it means you are 4betting 10% of your opening range. So say you are stealing something like 60% on the button, you are only 4betting 6% of hands. In reality it is probably more than 6% of hands because you 4bet more on the button than other positions but you get the point. In order for your equity calcs to be correct you need to use the 4bet-range statistic in holdem manager, not the 4bet%.

4bet % is (times you 4bet)/(times you get 3bet)

4bet range is Pre Flop Raise % x 4 Bet %

If I open btn 50% and 4bet 10%, this does not mean I'm 4betting 5% of hands. The 4bet % is not relative to position.

You need the positional 4bet %s to make the ev calcs 'correct.' So In my database @ 2/4, If I filter for just hands on the btn and add raise 3bet, I find that my stat is 16%. When combined with my 59% steal, we learn my 4bet "range" from the btn is 9.4%. (disclaimer, this isn't perfectly accurate because the 4bet % doesn't just include steal attempts)

You will def see regs with overall 4bet %s in the teens and 20s which implies their steal position 4bet is even higher yielding #s just like the 10% I used in the example. Again, sorry if I didn't make it clear in the vid.

Time Link to 00:10:40

If you made this video in excel then you could change the win% etc and the results would auto update in real time. in the end you could give away the excel as a free gift.

So if we look at our hud and he has 10% at the 4b % stat this is not the same situation that we just calculated. Cause this is him 4betting 10% of his opening range from all positions right?

So if we look at our hud and he has 10% at the 4b % stat this is not the same situation that we just calculated. Cause this is him 4betting 10% of his opening range from all positions right?

4bet % is (times you 4bet)/(times you get 3bet)

4bet % is (times you 4bet)/(times you get 3bet)

Still if we have 4bet% equal to 10 - this isn't 10% card range.

4bet % is (times you 4bet)/(times you get 3bet)

4bet range is Pre Flop Raise % x 4 Bet %

If I open btn 50% and 4bet 10%, this does not mean I'm 4betting 5% of hands. The 4bet % is not relative to position.

You need the positional 4bet %s to make the ev calcs 'correct.' So In my database @ 2/4, If I filter for just hands on the btn and add raise 3bet, I find that my stat is 16%. When combined with my 59% steal, we learn my 4bet "range" from the btn is 9.4%. (disclaimer, this isn't perfectly accurate because the 4bet % doesn't just include steal attempts)

You will def see regs with overall 4bet %s in the teens and 20s which implies their steal position 4bet is even higher yielding #s just like the 10% I used in the example. Again, sorry if I didn't make it clear in the vid.

tyvm

tyvm

ywvm

good presentation

good presentation

i'm like 65% you're leveling

got 'em

Nice one jk3a, definitely shows that shoving something like 89s vs a really aggressive regular can be +EV and not to meantion how good it can be for the metagame and future spots thx

Does worry me a little how 4 bet stats on a pretty reasonable sample size could throw you off a bit,had a guy a couple of days ago 5 bet shove on me twice in a session.Once he had A4 and once 88,his 4bet was 3% 4bet range 0.6% 1k hands(33).
The 2nd time i had opened 4-5 hands in a row,and 4bet bluffed once,lucky i was playing less tables,paying more attention to the game and less to the stats to be able to make a light call.Had i been on 8-10 table autogrind i would probably have folded.

Good video!

good point about card removal, when we have an Ax hand, we eliminate 4 combos each from their Ax value range. However, you didn't mention that having Ax also will theoretically reduce the number of ways he's bluffing since alot of people like to use Ax to 4bet bluff . Not sure what the net result is, nor if it matters.

If anyone is interested in a more verbose description of this effect, this concept is talked about in ep 10 of running the streets. While the episode is about 4betting the concept applies to 5bet pots.
http://www.deucescracked.com/videos/8361-Episode-Ten from about 20mins in we talk about it.

hopefully ppl dont start doing this i thought this was my move

I'm still confused by the 10% 4-bet number. Don't most people 3-bet around 10% of the time (or even less)? Are you saying that people are 4-betting just as often as they are 3-betting?

4bet % is (times you 4bet)/(times you get 3bet)

4bet range is Pre Flop Raise % x 4 Bet %

If I open btn 50% and 4bet 10%, this does not mean I'm 4betting 5% of hands. The 4bet % is not relative to position.

You need the positional 4bet %s to make the ev calcs 'correct.' So In my database @ 2/4, If I filter for just hands on the btn and add raise 3bet, I find that my stat is 16%. When combined with my 59% steal, we learn my 4bet "range" from the btn is 9.4%. (disclaimer, this isn't perfectly accurate because the 4bet % doesn't just include steal attempts)

You will def see regs with overall 4bet %s in the teens and 20s which implies their steal position 4bet is even higher yielding #s just like the 10% I used in the example. Again, sorry if I didn't make it clear in the vid.

let me know if you still have questions

Good video!


If anyone is interested in a more verbose description of this effect, this concept is talked about in ep 10 of running the streets. While the episode is about 4betting the concept applies to 5bet pots.
http://www.deucescracked.com/videos/8361-Episode-Ten from about 20mins in we talk about it.

nice one

Nice vid!

If anyone is not interested to do the math over and over for different situations I did a small excel
which is doing the calculations for u and u just have to type inthe variables like potsize/ 4bet range /call of range/estimated equity when called/effective stack size

This should work with Excel(did it with Open office)
http://www.file-upload.net/download-3217440/5betcalculationExcel.xls.html

For this link u need OpenOffice.
http://www.file-upload.net/download-3217410/5betcalculation.ods.html
Hope u enjoy it and PM me if their are any mistakes plz
Good luck

Edit: Think this should be around anywhere more professional if so give me a link plz

4bet % is (times you 4bet)/(times you get 3bet)

4bet range is Pre Flop Raise % x 4 Bet %

If I open btn 50% and 4bet 10%, this does not mean I'm 4betting 5% of hands. The 4bet % is not relative to position.

You need the positional 4bet %s to make the ev calcs 'correct.' So In my database @ 2/4, If I filter for just hands on the btn and add raise 3bet, I find that my stat is 16%. When combined with my 59% steal, we learn my 4bet "range" from the btn is 9.4%. (disclaimer, this isn't perfectly accurate because the 4bet % doesn't just include steal attempts)

You will def see regs with overall 4bet %s in the teens and 20s which implies their steal position 4bet is even higher yielding #s just like the 10% I used in the example. Again, sorry if I didn't make it clear in the vid.

Thanks, this is a pretty crucial addition. Although I still think some people might be unclear how important it is to use the filtered 'range' pct rather than just 4 bet %. For the kind of player we would be doing this against it is true that these numbers will tend to be close but to use an extreme example: If I only open AA and fold all else and always 4-bet then my 4-bet % would be 100% and using the calculation in the video you would come the the conclusion that it is very profitable to 5bet jam over my 4bets which clearly is false. However if you used the filtered button 4bet range stat then you would come to the right conclusion.

The point I'm trying to make is that although for most players we can use the 4-bet% in game to make a reasonable estimate of how often a player may be 4-bet bluffing, it isn't the "correct" number to be using for this calculation and as the extreme example showed it is possible to make some wildly incorrect assumptions when using the wrong numbers. In real situations the difference won't be so extreme but when we are dealing with such a small ev and high variance spot, a small error in our calculations could be enough to push it from +ev to -ev.

lol now people constantly 5bet shove me with rags

I'm never putting someone on a 10% 4bet range. If you shave that down to like 5%, which is still crazy high, and then take a look at that range and you can assume he's 4bet/calling with his entire 4bet range a lot, which is even more crushing us because way more pocketpairs.

I'm never putting someone on a 10% 4bet range. If you shave that down to like 5%, which is still crazy high, and then take a look at that range and you can assume he's 4bet/calling with his entire 4bet range a lot, which is even more crushing us because way more pocketpairs.

I would encourage you to read the whole thread