Ansky talks over a recent thread in the micro-stake NL hold'em forum on Deucescracked.com.
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Especially against an unknown."
Actually I mean we don't really know how he's playing. We don't have any reads to base the call on. If we had a read that he min-3bets light and bets when checked to, that would be much more of a reason to continue in the hand here. (Not that those are good reasons or that we should continue because of them, but it'd be something more than we have here.)
The river analysis I agree was pretty terse. What I was trying to say, poorly, was that we got into this spot in a really weird way, we're pretty lost in the hand, our lead on the river was probably a mistake, but now that we're here against basically a min-raise, it feels pretty gross to fold. But it probably is a fold and I'm just a station.
Biggest thing to me is that turn is definitely a fold. Calling is the biggest mistake made in the hand. He looks fishy and fish 3-bet a depolarized range and this flop smashes him. He bets all his bluffs on the flop so really you're probably behind on the flop after he checks with no idea of what his bluffing frequency is on the river after he bets turn, the board is paired with a backdoor flush draw, and you're not thrilled to hit a Q or A either if he bets big again on the river.
River is meh. Whenever you're getting that good of a price bvb against a fish with this hand the way it played out I think you're beat a vast majority of the time but you also hardly have to be good to call so I don't hate calling but I think fold is better. If I was playing a new site or something I'd call here because it's the play that gives you the most info and I think it's close either way whether it's a call or fold for reasons already discussed in the thread and video.
My guess is he has KK. Most fish want to call with TT instead of inducing with the min3-bet. He min3bets pre because he wants to give you irresistible pot odds. Flop he checks because he has a boat and that's what fish do because he thinks he's being tricky. Turn he needs value so he bets big and he thinks you'll call with lots of hands like what you had. River he raises an amount he thinks you'll call. I'm not sure if he raises AA on the river. My guess is no but you bet kinda small that he might still think AA is the nuts.
Being a smallstakes player once that now plays micros again, I often wonder about the posting mentality in uNL forums. Maybe you should have a sticky with links to Haj School and first educate ppl how they should think and write about hands. Most time the posts are without any content and meaningless