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Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by linkwood (Micro/Small Stakes)

I dont like your size on the turn, now you have to fold, because he almost only have value hands that bet us.

1,5$ much better size imo.

I gave villian this preflop range:
AT AJ AQ KQ
JJ TT 99 88 66 55 44 33 22
54s 56s 67s 78s 89s 9Ts TJs QJs
KJ

On the flop I think he porbably would donk out with this range:
99,55,KQs,AcJc,KcJc,QcJc,AcTc,JcTc,Tc9c,9c8c,8c7c,7c6c,AQo,KQo
Villian has a huge amount of (drwas approximatly 30%) in his range, so we have round about 62% EQ vs this range on the flop.

Turn OMG OMG OMG

Would he do this c/mr with worse made Hands? I doubt it.
Naked draws ? No
I think he wouldn’t do this move with anything than monsters and monsterdraws.
Maybe his m/cr range looks like this 99,55,JcTc,Tc9c,9c8c
So I would see the monster under the bed and run ahhh fold.

Surely this is a fold, and almost always a set of nines.

When a tight player leading into four opponents on the flop, I honestly can't imagine much other than sets. Maybe he has AQ and maybe a flush draw but aren't these more likely to check call or check raise? JJ and TT are vaguely possible but it's a pretty weird play if that's the case.

Then on the turn only a maniac would check raise as a bluff or semi bluff so it looks super-extremely likely it's a set or quads, especially with the 'please call me' bet size.

And on top of all that, at the micros it's far preferable to get bluffed off the best hand than to call with a worse one. Opponents telling you they're strong are usually telling the truth.

I dont like your size on the turn, now you have to fold, because he almost only have value hands that bet us.

1,5$ much better size imo.

What do you think he does differently with Qx and draws when we bet $2 versus when we bet $1.50?

Baluga theorem makes this a fold. This is where reads will also save the day, but I doubt you have one that mentions how he played draws? Even if he does play draws like this, the only draw I can think of that would do this is a monster like JcTc and you only have 65% equity agaisn't it. Thats the bottom of his range and if he did have only a draw he would probably only check-call or double barrel since the 5 would be kind of a scary card.

His line screams strenght. More importantly, if you do call, what's our plan on the river? If a club comes it'll be an obvious fold, but if a blank comes and he leads into us, what do we actualy beat at that point? Overplayed KQ? Pure balla bluff when he donks 2/3 pots into 4 people, c/r turn and "probably" value-bets(shove) the river?

This guy seems like somewhat of a reg, so he can probably hand read our obvious TP - I think the minraise is for value and then you'll be pot commited on the river if you do call. Fold fold fold...

What do you think he does differently with Qx and draws when we bet $2 versus when we bet $1.50?

No decent player would call 2$ with a draw there, but 1,5$ it would in my opinon.

Let's say the range I give this guy for his line is...any club aces (9 combos), some club suited connectors (76,87,98,T9,JT) and his value hands such as 99s (3 combos) and 55s (1 combo).

Many players will rather take a c/r line w big draws than a donking line. For this reason let's say I give him half of his drawing combos I just enumerated and keep his value hands.

In this case he's got 11 combos ( 7 draws ; 4 values), which causes me to think shoving this turn has some merit. If the river comes a brick it will kill some action we would have got on the turn by his draws or he'll turn these into a bluff and put us in a rough spot.

Sure a fold would make sense at first sight because his line looks so strong. I just like considering other options, and in this case, I think shoving might not be that bad. We must also consider that there is a lot of surprising stuff going on at micro stakes and that these tight players often have a hard time letting go hands they commited some chips with.

easy jam.

flop range: AcXc's / 9cXc / Qh9h / 99 / 55 / QQ / Jc10c / Kc10-Jc-10c / KQ / QJ / Q10 / Q9

turn range: QQ / 99 / 55 / KQ / QJ / Q10 / Q9

I believe villain does not c/r flush draws on turn. Which turns his hand face up IMO. against this range (range can be altered to looser/tighter... just did it quick on paper.) our hand has significant (~60%) equity and therefore is a shove.

Id also like to point out that our percieved range is very draw heavy and the strength of our hand is very disguised. I think villain is value owning himself/ trying to get more money from what he believes is a draw.

villain jams a flush draw on turn btw...

Baluga theorem makes this a fold. This is where reads will also save the day, but I doubt you have one that mentions how he played draws? Even if he does play draws like this, the only draw I can think of that would do this is a monster like JcTc and you only have 65% equity agaisn't it. Thats the bottom of his range and if he did have only a draw he would probably only check-call or double barrel since the 5 would be kind of a scary card.

His line screams strenght. More importantly, if you do call, what's our plan on the river? If a club comes it'll be an obvious fold, but if a blank comes and he leads into us, what do we actualy beat at that point? Overplayed KQ? Pure balla bluff when he donks 2/3 pots into 4 people, c/r turn and "probably" value-bets(shove) the river?

This guy seems like somewhat of a reg, so he can probably hand read our obvious TP - I think the minraise is for value and then you'll be pot commited on the river if you do call. Fold fold fold...

So... whats villain think we have... pretty sure you didnt even think about it... less typing, more thinking than typing. your argument is weak and comes down to he raised and bet, so i have to fold...

once he check raises there we dont expect him to ever be able to fold so the question comes down to if we think a semi tight player at 10nl can have worse Q's and draws here sometimes and i would say that it is rather possible so i would get it in here, for people to put him on exactly a boat here seems silly to me. and there is a none zero chance he actually can fold here too. sometimes we get owned but i think pushing is +ev given there is $9 in the pot.i do think some % the time he has pocket 9's and some smaller % the time some weird 5X combos ( not often) and then a lot of the time he has FD combos and maybe a pair and a FD combo.

just calling is beyond retarded to me imo i think thats the worst option of them all

I would think that villain would bet the turn with any worse value hands, like KQ, QJ, etc and barrel any draws he may have lead on the flop. If villain was check raising a draw on the turn, I'd expect him to crai. When villain check raises small, his range is heavily weighted towards 99/55. I think this is a fold on the turn.

So... whats villain think we have... pretty sure you didnt even think about it... less typing, more thinking than typing. your argument is weak and comes down to he raised and bet, so i have to fold...

->

This guy seems like somewhat of a reg, so he can probably hand read our obvious TP - I think the minraise is for value and then you'll be pot commited on the river if you do call. Fold fold fold...

our hand can look like a draw true, but it can also be TPWK, but saying he value chk/r here with QJ/ QT? Really??
Unless that guy's retarded and building massive pot with shitty hand and shitty equity(aka a maniac) I would fold.
If he had QJ he'd ship it in, he wouldn't c/r this small unless he's retarded.

No decent player would call 2$ with a draw there, but 1,5$ it would in my opinon.

I disagree. I feel like he's either calling most bets or folding to most bets with a draw. Sizing within the 60-75% pot range makes not difference. Obviously unless we find the guy and ask him we won't know for sure but you'll be surprise how many times guys c/c draws here. Obviously a decent reg won't c/c but I don't assume we're against a decent reg.

First of all I would like to thank you for making this series.

So what do I think he has? For now, lets put on a side that he is tight player. Player on your right opened preflop, and got you and a SB as a caller. BB actually had to pay just 0.2$ for a 1$ pot atm (with his call total pot is 1,2$), in this case he could call with any two. Its a possability, but I doubt that a tight player would do this. Well wouldnt be surprised at these limits, everything is possible

Donk bet on a flop --> probably he was thinking that with it he will push at least two players out of the pot if not all, which he did. Just you called him. The turn paired the board, and he checked, you bet, he min-raises. I'm quite sure he hasn't got pocket fives, and that for sure he wouldn't donk on the flop with lets say A5s or A5o. Does he has pocket nines? Could be, maybe because of that he made that donk bet as he was happy to see trips (he can be quite sure that any Q will pay him off) and also to "protect" his hand against flush draw. IMO players on this limit would for sure call if they would have flush draw!

What is his hand? As said 99 is possible, but IMO he has a strong Q, AQ or KQ. He probably min-raised you as he is "putting" you on a flush draw and thinks that you will fold after his raise. I would suggest push, as most probably you are ahead (in case he hasnt got pocket nines or 5 (less likely)). If you are behind you still have well (in case he has nines full with fives) two more outs, good luck

In regards to the turn bet sizing, the value we lose from when villain c/f his draws (which I don't necessarily think he does) is made up for by the value we gain from the times villain c/c KQ, QJ, QT, etc

First of all I would like to thank you for making this series.

So what do I think he has? For now, lets put on a side that he is tight player. Player on your right opened preflop, and got you and a SB as a caller. BB actually had to pay just 0.2$ for a 1$ pot atm (with his call total pot is 1,2$), in this case he could call with any two. Its a possability, but I doubt that a tight player would do this. Well wouldnt be surprised at these limits, everything is possible

Donk bet on a flop --> probably he was thinking that with it he will push at least two players out of the pot if not all, which he did. Just you called him. The turn paired the board, and he checked, you bet, he min-raises. I'm quite sure he hasn't got pocket fives, and that for sure he wouldn't donk on the flop with lets say A5s or A5o. Does he has pocket nines? Could be, maybe because of that he made that donk bet as he was happy to see trips (he can be quite sure that any Q will pay him off) and also to "protect" his hand against flush draw. IMO players on this limit would for sure call if they would have flush draw!

What is his hand? As said 99 is possible, but IMO he has a strong Q, AQ or KQ. He probably min-raised you as he is "putting" you on a flush draw and thinks that you will fold after his raise. I would suggest push, as most probably you are ahead (in case he hasnt got pocket nines or 5 (less likely)). If you are behind you still have well (in case he has nines full with fives) two more outs, good luck

EDIT: If he has JTo or JTs, this would be a weird move from him (or not), even though he still has a lot of outs. Actually even if you push him he will call you for sure...

What is his hand? As said 99 is possible, but IMO he has a strong Q, AQ or KQ. He probably min-raised you as he is "putting" you on a flush draw and thinks that you will fold after his raise. I would suggest push, as most probably you are ahead (in case he hasnt got pocket nines or 5 (less likely)). If you are behind you still have well (in case he has nines full with fives) two more outs, good luck

Do you really think villain will check the turn with Qx after leading the flop? And then c/r really small?

Do you really think villain will check the turn with Qx after leading the flop? And then c/r really small?

not really. this small c/r looks like Villian is luring Hero into the pot. With Qx he would be affraid of giving Hero a freecard or the right price to draw.

not really. this small c/r looks like Villian is luring Hero into the pot. With Qx he would be affraid of giving Hero a freecard or the right price to draw.

Yeah, agree with this. I don't think villain cares if a we call and a club comes on the river, or if we check behind either.

Do you really think villain will check the turn with Qx after leading the flop? And then c/r really small?

Well it's possible, I think that everyone from us already did this. I agree that his min raise is weird, it can be a monster or also as a bluff, as he is putting us on a flush draw, and he probably thinks we will fold (we have to have in mind that these are micro limits). I'm quite sure he doesnt have AA or KK, as he would already raise preflop (if he has, well not a nice spot for AA with 4 handed flop). Interesting situation, would really like to know what happend.

I dont like your size on the turn, now you have to fold, because he almost only have value hands that bet us.

1,5$ much better size imo.

With a small bet, you will lose value on Qx/draws. With these hands, he's definitely calling the turn. If he decided to c/c with draws, he would do it whatever the bet size is. We need to take as much value as possible on draws/Qx and some weird 9x (9cxc) plus we set the stack size for a river shove.

His range for checking the turn is mainly Qx/draws/9x/give up. I think the check raise will be pretty rare and I dont expect him to do it with a draw (nitty guy probably passive), especially with this sizing where he does not look for FE.
I expect him to c/c most of his Qx. Even if his value range is pretty small, from a nitty guy (probably not capable of big moves) his range to do this is Q9s/99/QQ?/55 imo. As the sizing is small flop/it was multiway preflop and we don't have reads/a lot of stats on the guy, I wouldn't completely deny 5x (54s/56s/A5s) from his range. He could DB for information/semibluff and it would make sence with his line. So, I would fold turn.

Nice turn sizing now fold. Pokerstove is useless in this spot btw

Definitely folding. The only value hand you're head of is like a NFD, and given his stats (readless) I don't think he'd be bluff check raising the turn very often even with a NFD

Range: 99, Q9 and even the one combo of 55. That's about it. I suppose there's a chance he could have another AQ in which case you're calling or raising here to chop. Not very good unless he's a spazz monkey IMO.

maaaagine his turn range was limited to the nuts...

As the pot was multiway pre, and he was on the BB, he could be calling with a lot of speculative hands, suited connectors and one gappers, and then donk out on the flop with a made hand or draw to protect their hand. His check raising the turn could be a 2 pair hand trying to take down the pot, scared of a club river, or a trips/boat hand raising for value.

On the turn I have stoved a range of QJs,QTs,J9s,J9o,T9s,T9o,98s,98o, A9s, A9o as hands that we beat, and counted a total of 46 combos that we beat. Against these hands we have 90% equity

As for a range of hands that beat us, I have counted 55,99,56s,54s,56o,54o,57s,57o,A5o,A5s
This makes it 36 combos of hands that beat us. Adding this to our above range, this gives us 55%equity.

If I've done the maths correctly, calling here would be +Ev by $3.87.

Including draws AJc through A2c our equity increases by 2%,making the call more profitable.

Again, assuming I've done the maths right, the EV on a shove here is +$5.07.

So, you could risk $2.50 to win $3.97, or $7 to win $5.07. I will opt for the 'call and act again on the river' line as opposed to a shove

(my shove EV was calculated assuming that he calls all hands that he raises, which is unlikely, but even so...)

hey linkwood! great series and i hope to take this video down

on the turn decision, we either have to shove or fold and i like shoving.

first of all, i think if he had a nutted hand on flop, players tend to c/r a lot especially multiway vs a tight PFR. when he leads close to 2/3rds pot, i think he has a lot of TP type hands and a lot of draws.

as you pointed out, q9s only has 1 combo, 99 is 3 combos, and 55 is one combo. qq is almost never in his range imo. so basically, we are afraid of 4 or 5 combos and those combos only play this way a fraction of the time.

now when it comes to draws, there are a TON of combos in his range. i do think that draws tend to c/shove here as a semi-bluff for maximum fold equity so that is the only thing that concerns me. given that is is 10nl, there is a TON of spaz and random play that counteracts the few times he does have a monster.

also, not sure what level your opponent is on, but your turn range is very wide so he might be c/ring for value w/ Qx or he might be semibluffing with a draw because he knows you can have a wide range

i think you turned about the best turn card in the deck and you need to jam for value since he will call off w/ draws and worse Qx hands

ok i think he mostly had here 99 becouse i do not see him doing that with other hand might have aq too but he might squeeze pre, if he was leading with f/d on flop i think he will lead the turn as well, with kq he will chek call or lead again so i will fold becouse my potential is to chop or loose and im ok to loose 3 doll. is correct?

ok i think he mostly had here 99 becouse i do not see him doing that with other hand might have aq too but he might squeeze pre, if he was leading with f/d on flop i think he will lead the turn as well, with kq he will chek call or lead again so i will fold becouse my potential is to chop or loose and im ok to loose 3 doll. is correct?

ranges and equities VS one hand and because i think so....

edit: try to think through it more deeply

ranges and equities VS one hand and because i think so....

edit: try to think through it more deeply

what u mean??? i think i chek all option for the possible hand he can have for me

Hey all,

First off, our last winner is BananinSok. Congratulations! Contact me via PM to set up your free coaching session.

Because this was our last week, lets go ahead and discuss what to do in this hand. Given that villain led multiway and then very close to min-c/r, and given that our read is that he's a TAG I think this has to be a fold, or, at best, a call turn, fold river. Most villains don't have Qx when they c/r very often. Yes, there are very few hands that beat us, but there are very, very few hands that we beat imo. If our reads were different then perhaps our play could change to call, or even jam. But given we have a read of a tight player taking a weird line vs the pfr in a multiway pot, it seems unlikely that we're looking at a very weak or medium strength hand. Its possible, but I think unlikely enough that we can safely fold our hand.

Let me know what you all think or if you have any questions. Thanks to everyone! Its been a really fun series!

Hi,

thank you linkwood. I replied on your PM, just that you know

Sorry for being so late

This is my first post ever on DC, so excuse me being 6 months late. I watched this series and have been dabbling online at micro/small stakes for a long time. Nits donk into raisers with over pairs and sets, since this is 4 way, and he did not reraise pre, unless he has a 3bet/squeeze percent of zero, he never has an over pair. I don't think you ever call here, so shove or fold is your only options. If he were a spaz we would love this spot, but nits just never have worse then hero's hand. I think it is obvious he had a hand that didn't want to give a free card in a multiway pot, and the donk was meant to irritate aggressive players into raising. I think your hand looks like a big club draw, or tp with a good kicker. Since he had no way of knowing you would bet a flush draw if checked to, it does not seem like he cared much if you got a free card, and his min raise is not trying to price your potential big draw out. I see aggro monkeys do this as a bluff because they see nits do this with monsters, and they hope to get a fold due to mistaken identity. I see most of the posts were counting combinations of holdings, and playing the Game theory optimal strategy but that is what you fall back on if you don't know your opponent. I run about 28/24 with 12 percent 3 bet and I have nits pull this line on me alot, mostly cause I used to pay them off all the time with AQ.
Hope this didn't completely suck

This is my first post ever on DC, so excuse me being 6 months late. I watched this series and have been dabbling online at micro/small stakes for a long time. Nits donk into raisers with over pairs and sets, since this is 4 way, and he did not reraise pre, unless he has a 3bet/squeeze percent of zero, he never has an over pair. I don't think you ever call here, so shove or fold is your only options. If he were a spaz we would love this spot, but nits just never have worse then hero's hand. I think it is obvious he had a hand that didn't want to give a free card in a multiway pot, and the donk was meant to irritate aggressive players into raising. I think your hand looks like a big club draw, or tp with a good kicker. Since he had no way of knowing you would bet a flush draw if checked to, it does not seem like he cared much if you got a free card, and his min raise is not trying to price your potential big draw out. I see aggro monkeys do this as a bluff because they see nits do this with monsters, and they hope to get a fold due to mistaken identity. I see most of the posts were counting combinations of holdings, and playing the Game theory optimal strategy but that is what you fall back on if you don't know your opponent. I run about 28/24 with 12 percent 3 bet and I have nits pull this line on me alot, mostly cause I used to pay them off all the time with AQ.
Hope this didn't completely suck

It didn't suck at all. I mostly agree. One thing to note though is that while I agree that reads are very, very important, doing things like counting combinations or other general math is also important. One should really feed the other. By that I mean that our reads guide our math. So if we were read less we'd go with a general hand range, count the combos, figure out our equity, etc. But if we have a more specific read then we use that read to narrow down the hand range, count the combos, figure out our equity, etc. I'm sure you didn't mean that math is worthless, I just want to make sure that's clear for everyone ready this.

I certainly did not mean that math is idiotic at all. I just think that a nit is not spazzing out or turning a worse queen into a bluff. I think he is balancing the nuts with 2nd and 3rd nuts. I love the math of poker, but I think in the hierarchy of information we are getting from the hand (HUD stats, timing tells, betting lines, etc.), the nit factor is pretty high on the list of determinates.

I certainly did not mean that math is idiotic at all. I just think that a nit is not spazzing out or turning a worse queen into a bluff. I think he is balancing the nuts with 2nd and 3rd nuts. I love the math of poker, but I think in the hierarchy of information we are getting from the hand (HUD stats, timing tells, betting lines, etc.), the nit factor is pretty high on the list of determinates.

Basically agree. Thanks.

I agree that this is a clear fold, and I feel very strongly that villain has 99, it just seems to make perfect sense to me. Since he is rather nitty, PF he may not want to go for a squeeze OOP vs several players. He bets out on the flop for a combination of value and to protect against flush draws given that it is a 4-way pot on a two-tone board. A slightly larger than min-CR on the turn when the board pairs just screams strength, and he is obviously committed given he just stuck in almost half his remaining stack. Someone that plays that tight, I just never see then doing something like this with a TPGK hand like KQ (AQ I think would've 3B PF).

In any case, excellent work! Linkwood, have you done any other shorts in this "results next week" type of format?