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Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by Ansky (High Stakes)

Time Link to 00:59:04

This noise you make, is this to:

A.) Induce a bluff
B.) Tilt your opponent
C.) Tom Dwan mating call
D.) All the above

Time Link to 00:02:59

I somewhat like the lead on the turn. I think you can represent Jx pretty credibly, even though I would prefer leading more, if the board was a little bit more dry. I also think that people do not generally lead the turn enough, if they for example cc flop w/ 89s on K84 flop and turn trips. I like leading in these spots w/ trips and bluffs with a balanced strategy. Thoughts??

This noise you make, is this to:

A.) Induce a bluff
B.) Tilt your opponent
C.) Tom Dwan mating call
D.) All the above

c.

I somewhat like the lead on the turn. I think you can represent Jx pretty credibly, even though I would prefer leading more, if the board was a little bit more dry. I also think that people do not generally lead the turn enough, if they for example cc flop w/ 89s on K84 flop and turn trips. I like leading in these spots w/ trips and bluffs with a balanced strategy. Thoughts??

A lot of times I just snap-check without thinking about it, and leading has got to be the better play at least some of the time. You are probably right.

off topic but... LOL at that pic ansky!

Time Link to 00:41:11

Re: 33 bluff

single pair Ax - (A9s-A4s,A9o-A4o) = 6 ranks * 12 combos = 72 +
A3 - 6 combos ( card removal 1 ace - 2 3s)

No discount Two Pair Ax - (AQs,ATs,A2s,AQo,ATo,A2o)= 3 ranks * 4 combos = 12
Discount AK? ( not sure how much you discount AK 4betting 190bb effective) - Maximum 4 combos possibly less.

Therefore Maximum Ax bluffcatching range = 118 combos
78 combos Weak single pair
16 combos of two pair Ax

Kx two pair bluffcatching range
KQs,KTs,K2s,KQo,KTo = 10 combos ( not sure he defends K2o to 3bet)

Qx two pair bluffcatching range
QTs,QTo = 4 combos


Set combos = ( if we assume QQ+ is in 4bet range) 3 combos but if we think JJ is double floating then TT prolly does too - they should be discounted equally.
Set bluff catching 3-6 combos

Thus on these assumptions - that if he bluffcatches 1 pair hands they are Ax and two pair+ - then the maximum total bluffcatching range is

78 combos weak Ax bluff catchers
33-36 2pr+ bluffcatchers ( Ax = 16 Kx = 10 Qx = 4 Sets = 3-6)

Bluffcatching range = 144 maximum combos

vs Jx (cont'd)

Ansky

You mentioned that Durrr - peeled to a ton of 3bets and did not 4bet much at all.
Thus my assumption on his call 3bet range for Jx is
JJ,AJs,KJs,QJs,J2s+,AJo,KJo,QJo,J7o+
Any Jx suited
Any Jx that makes a straight

No Jx 4bets.

So how many of these get to the river?

If we assume that
(a) He does not raise any flush draw 190bb effective on AK2 even QJhh or JThh
(b) He only floats Jxs with BDFD i.e. Jx
(c) he double floats 100% of the time when he picks up just the gutter..??

Jx range that gets to river =

Jd9d,Jh9h,Jd8d,Jh8h,Jd7d,Jh7h,Jd6d,Jh6h,Jd5d,Jh5h,Jd4d,Jh4h,Jd3d,Jh3h
= 14 combos
JJ = 6 combos ( no 4bet PF discount)
AJs,KJs,QJs,JTs,AJo,KJo,QJo,JTo = 4 ranks* 12 combos (card removal board pair) = 48 combos
Jd2d = 1 combo

69 combos of Jx that get to the river.

Maximum Total combinations that get to the river - 144 + 69 = 213 combos

Ratio

2 bluff catchers to 1 nut hand.

Means by which we might get a better EV value for our bluff.

- include Kx single pair bluff catchers - alot less likely because you might be bluffing with better
- remove AJ JJ type hands and put them in his 4b PF range
- remove Jx dd from double floating
- include some semi-bluff on flop or turn with pair and draw hands or combo flush draws

EV
45395.50 to win 110595


Tom will be getting 3.4 - 1 on his call
45395.5 to win 155990

Or he needs 29% equity

29% of 144 combinations - 42 combinations
So if our assumptions of his bluffcatching range is correct - he would need less than 42 combinations of Jx

Remember we had him on 100% bluffcatching on his single Ax hands....which might not be true.

So I guess the last piece in the puzzle is how many combos of hands are there that he double floats that get to the river and fold to our shove?

Which would be
- Busted FD (K9s-K3s,Q9s-Q3s,T3s+,93s+,83s+,73s+,63s+,53s+,43s) Hearts 42 combos - if he defends every suited hand to 3b
- Kx single pair not sure how many Kxo he defends - you might want to put a range on his Kx o 3b call range
- 2x single pair? again how many 2x suited in 3bet call range
- Qx suited in diamonds - 7 combos

- meh not sure if he double floats with 99-44 on AK2Q flushing... - 36 combo ????

I am not finding enough combos of hands that double float us and fold to the river.
Mainly I think this is due to the fact that his 3bet call range would be biased towards suited cards ( always combinatorically smaller) and he has to get to the river AK2Q through your barrells.


The counter-balancing factor - is the fact that you probably do not have a ton of combos that are bluffs. So it will still be a tough spot for him despite the good price.

Its also interesting the effect of having such a wide 3bet call range - on these river spots - he has so many more Jx than anyone else making it much less profitable to barrell him.

Hope some of my effort helped.

You miscalculated his pot odds, I jammed 45 into 65 (hes getting 110-45).

Sorry you are right.

Any comment on my ranges?

Nice vid. Thanks again. You crushed the deck this episode. :-0

Time Link to 00:11:41

is there ever a time to flat a 4 bet?

Time Link to 00:14:14

how about CR river?
say you did, how strong of a hand does tom need to call here? 2 pair?
is he calling with Qx?

Edit:
too much money to put in with not enough value hands in your range?

Time Link to 00:18:00

tom bets pot on turn when checked to, is this size standard?
after you donk flop and then check turn arn't you often CF?

thanks a lot for making these. really good, honest and open examination of the session(s?).

though a lot of unl and ssnl guys probably worry that the stuff in these videos might be too complicated or fancy or whatnot for them to apply, it really helps them to see how even at these stakes, poker is still about small, calculated deviations from GTO.

working my way through these slowly...

Time Link to 00:21:53

With what types of hands would opponent want to take a free card here? He raised preflop from SB, and the flop was QJ9 monotone. If it had been like Q72 monotone, should he then tend to cbet more often?

I was thinking that monotone flops are good flops for bluffing, and also that you need to protect your hand on monotone flops as well. Thus, it is almost like you do need to cbet them most of the time. But given what you said in the video, I think I might be looking at this incorrectly.

Time Link to 00:23:08

I think checking the river here might be an interesting move to extract the most value from his hands, a lot of which are most likely missed draws that can't call but might bluff, and if he has a strong hand like a flush he bets anyway right? What do you think?

Time Link to 00:31:53

I think he has clubs / pocket 4's- 8's / pure overs that turn a gutshot (maybe he raises those though OTT or shoves w/ them reading your small bet as weakness?) Would he ever fold a bad 9? not sure on that one.

Time Link to 00:41:10

What can Durrrr put you on here that makes sense for you to take this line? I can think of
AJ KJ hh QJ hh any jx of hearts really, and JT. However would you really be shoving this river with sets / 2 pair?if NO then out of your entire range that is pretty slim compared to all the other hands that get to the river and check behind or at least don't shove. With that in mind do you think it's a lot easier for Tom to put you on a bluff?

With a guy like Tom isn't it a lot more about what YOU could illegitimately have compared to how many jacks he can have? I mean if he thinks it's a good river to bluff and a lot of your hands are not shoving here then he calls with hands that you might think he would fold.

Time Link to 00:25:26

I disgree with your opinion that tom has to bluff this river with his specific hand because its pretty much the weakest hand he can get to this river with based on game theory. I think it would be suicidal to bluff this specific river based on the action. Your range looks like ax, kx, on this river and he can't really rep many combos of hands that beat ax and I think the majority of your turn calling range is ax and kx and your never folding ax on that river for a standard bet. Of course if he knew you were taking this line with qq which means you would be taking this same line with 88-qq versus his 3bet calling range on this flop and turn its a much better bluff, but he can't expect you to bet all combos of 88-qq on this flop. and I think your even though 88-qq is the same hand, your more inclined to fold 88-tt on the turn to a bet than qq even though its the same hand versus his range. I think your obviously betting 88-99 more than tt-qq. Based on his preflop calling range you've assigned him he has so many combos of 1 card gutters on this board which is why you bet for value with qq I'm assuming. As played your range is strongly weighted toward hands that aren't folding, with your actually hand being the at the bottom of your range as played, therefore his river bluffing frequency should be a mixed strategy with alot of the bluff range removed and not a pure one of bluffing the very bottom of his river range. I don't know if you agree with this or not.

I disgree with your opinion that tom has to bluff this river with his specific hand because its pretty much the weakest hand he can get to this river with based on game theory. I think it would be suicidal to bluff this specific river based on the action. Your range looks like ax, kx, on this river and he can't really rep many combos of hands that beat ax and I think the majority of your turn calling range is ax and kx and your never folding ax on that river for a standard bet. Of course if he knew you were taking this line with qq which means you would be taking this same line with 88-qq versus his 3bet calling range on this flop and turn its a much better bluff, but he can't expect you to bet all combos of 88-qq on this flop. and I think your even though 88-qq is the same hand, your more inclined to fold 88-tt on the turn to a bet than qq even though its the same hand versus his range. I think your obviously betting 88-99 more than tt-qq. Based on his preflop calling range you've assigned him he has so many combos of 1 card gutters on this board which is why you bet for value with qq I'm assuming. As played your range is strongly weighted toward hands that aren't folding, with your actually hand being the at the bottom of your range as played, therefore his river bluffing frequency should be a mixed strategy with alot of the bluff range removed and not a pure one of bluffing the very bottom of his river range. I don't know if you agree with this or not.

I think he definitely should bluff his hand on this river, I will frequently fold Kx, which is a reasonable % of my range.

With what types of hands would opponent want to take a free card here? He raised preflop from SB, and the flop was QJ9 monotone. If it had been like Q72 monotone, should he then tend to cbet more often?

I was thinking that monotone flops are good flops for bluffing, and also that you need to protect your hand on monotone flops as well. Thus, it is almost like you do need to cbet them most of the time. But given what you said in the video, I think I might be looking at this incorrectly.

Stuff like Jx? 9x w/ club? If he decides to take a freebie w/ something like 7c6x it hurts me a lot more on this board than it would on a non fd board. With all that said in 2012 I probably c/c my hand on the flop.

I think checking the river here might be an interesting move to extract the most value from his hands, a lot of which are most likely missed draws that can't call but might bluff, and if he has a strong hand like a flush he bets anyway right? What do you think?

He doesnt have too many missed draws that also have no SD value, so I don't really agree with that.

Vs a flush my line is probably not best though.

I think he has clubs / pocket 4's- 8's / pure overs that turn a gutshot (maybe he raises those though OTT or shoves w/ them reading your small bet as weakness?) Would he ever fold a bad 9? not sure on that one.

My river bet is dumb because he can have 9x that is better than mine, or Tx. He rarely would c/r some medium value hand that is worse than mine on the flop.