Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by sthief09 (Micro/Small Stakes)

I chuckled when I woke up and saw two yes two playbook vids........too many good ideas pad/josh ----> great work guys.
Now for 2.5 hours of fun!.

Time Link to 00:48:27

I really like how you've broken this all down, but I'm having a hard time determining how many value combos to take out when considering the number of draws in villain's range. Are you using a base number or something to make your guesstimations (e.g. flush draw only(Q72tt)=subtract 10 combos) or do you have some other method to suggest? It seems like in game, I can make a quick estimate of how many value hands he has via combonatorics, and I can even guess at the % of times he bluffs (such as starting at 10% and moving up/down due to texture/player type/blockers) but then I see a board like QJ2tt and think "he could have 'a ton' of draws here, so I have to call." It's as if the mathematical estimations I go through to count combos goes out the window all of a sudden, because if there's a decent draw, I have to call or 3bet since that seems like a sig portion of his range. Any advice on making this part of the process more precise? It's obv player dependent since not everyone raises every draw, but where do you start? Should we due some calcs for typical textures and consider player type,etc. to get a "range" of the number of subtractions we should make (e.g. if flush draw only, subtract 5-15 value hands depending on x,y) or is this just too vague to make it worth while?

Maybe a better way to go about it would be giving some more examples of spots where we have a hand that at first seems like we can't fold to a flop raise (TPTK) and demonstrate how the number of draws on the board makes the difference b/t profitable and unprofitable.

Good stuff yet again.

Are we always talking about calling vs folding? Is there a way to use a estimated number of draws to figure when we should be raiseing?

If we do call the flop are we leaning toward folding the turn unimproved?

Thanks

I really like how you've broken this all down, but I'm having a hard time determining how many value combos to take out when considering the number of draws in villain's range. Are you using a base number or something to make your guesstimations (e.g. flush draw only(Q72tt)=subtract 10 combos) or do you have some other method to suggest? It seems like in game, I can make a quick estimate of how many value hands he has via combonatorics, and I can even guess at the % of times he bluffs (such as starting at 10% and moving up/down due to texture/player type/blockers) but then I see a board like QJ2tt and think "he could have 'a ton' of draws here, so I have to call." It's as if the mathematical estimations I go through to count combos goes out the window all of a sudden, because if there's a decent draw, I have to call or 3bet since that seems like a sig portion of his range. Any advice on making this part of the process more precise? It's obv player dependent since not everyone raises every draw, but where do you start? Should we due some calcs for typical textures and consider player type,etc. to get a "range" of the number of subtractions we should make (e.g. if flush draw only, subtract 5-15 value hands depending on x,y) or is this just too vague to make it worth while?

Maybe a better way to go about it would be giving some more examples of spots where we have a hand that at first seems like we can't fold to a flop raise (TPTK) and demonstrate how the number of draws on the board makes the difference b/t profitable and unprofitable.

Two of you asked about this, and I think it's a logical question.

So the method I'm using is to just take away combinations of strong hands. There are 3 types of hands he'll be raising mostly: value hands, draws, and bluffs. Draws are closer to value than bluffs, both equity-wise and the fact that we have no fold equity vs. good draws.

It's hard to really quantify where draws lay in comparison to bluffs/value. It's also hard to count up all the draw combos. All we can really do is estimate. I'd say remove a maximum of 4 combinations on super draw heavy boards, like JTx two-tone. Even on that board, KQo and 98o are less likely to raise and stack off anyway. So really, the draws just sort of dilute the value combos. They won't fold to a 3-bet, but at the same time hero has 50 or 60% equity instead of 10%. That's why I think that just knocking off a few value combos makes sense.

Good stuff yet again.

Are we always talking about calling vs folding? Is there a way to use a estimated number of draws to figure when we should be raiseing?

If we do call the flop are we leaning toward folding the turn unimproved?

Thanks

My opinion is that without history and without a texture-changing card, tend to be conservative on the card. So in this spot on the QT8, I estimated ~45% equity on the flop. That's low enough where we should fold the turn. Too much reverse implied odds when we're calling the flop as an underdog, without a strong read.

With 55%+ equity, start considering a turn call or c/r all-in depending on the board, opponent, reads, history, etc. Basically, it depends how often you think he'll bluff the river if you call the turn.

My opinion is that without history and without a texture-changing card, tend to be conservative on the card. So in this spot on the QT8, I estimated ~45% equity on the flop. That's low enough where we should fold the turn. Too much reverse implied odds when we're calling the flop as an underdog, without a strong read.

With 55%+ equity, start considering a turn call or c/r all-in depending on the board, opponent, reads, history, etc. Basically, it depends how often you think he'll bluff the river if you call the turn.

With our 45% equity, you said that we should fold the turn..but why we arent folding the flop raise instead of calling flop and then folding turn?

With our 45% equity, you said that we should fold the turn..but why we arent folding the flop raise instead of calling flop and then folding turn?

If you have a time stamp I can check in more detail but in general people still cbet too often and often check turns when they are not strong (allowing us to realise equity in the hand).

Their wider flop cbet range means we have even more equity plus % chance that they just give up altogether in the hand.

With our 45% equity, you said that we should fold the turn..but why we arent folding the flop raise instead of calling flop and then folding turn?

Like Paddy said, timestamp would be helpful, but often times villain's range is significantly stronger when he follows through on the turn.

Like Paddy said, timestamp would be helpful, but often times villain's range is significantly stronger when he follows through on the turn.

0:45:40

maybe I missunderstand but you said its close between turn call / fold and I was thinking that its just better to fold the flop instead of call flop and then fold turn. But its true that people often cbet flop and check turn.