Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by sthief09 (Micro/Small Stakes)

Good work.

Still trying to work out what I think of it all.

Thanks josh.

Time Link to 00:29:56

You said if he raises UTG and has a honest turn range calling the flop is -EV? Wouldn't a honest turn range make calling the flop higher EV due to us being able to make good turn folds (granted this might cause someone to start bluffing more)?

You said if he raises UTG and has a honest turn range calling the flop is -EV? Wouldn't a honest turn range make calling the flop higher EV due to us being able to make good turn folds (granted this might cause someone to start bluffing more)?

I listened to a couple of minutes before and after the timestamp, and all I mentioned was that it's a clear turn fold against the UTG range+honest turn barrel. When we were looking at the flop situation earlier in the video, I had mentioned that it seemed clear that calling the flop was standard against all 6 ranges. The lowest flop equity was 65% against the UTG raise + 50ish% c-bet.

Excel files:


https://www.yousendit.com/download/aHlUYURGeWFwcFd4dnc9PQ

Time Link to 00:34:24

Would be really good to see the same calc for 2nd pair TK here to compare it to KJ and TT.

Time Link to 00:44:41

If you click Ctrl-mousewheelUp or Ctrl-mousewheelDown you can zoom quickly in Excel, which would allow you to fit that in temporarily.

Time Link to 01:03:41

It might be more accurate to say that you should NOT be calling down; saying you should fold the turn implies there are no other options.

It might be more accurate to say that you should NOT be calling down; saying you should fold the turn implies there are no other options.

I'm assuming you're talking about calling the turn and folding the river. The sheet does have that as an option. In the scenario at that time-stamp, the sheet says to fold the turn because the "cost of folding" the river makes the turn call -EV.

Time Link to 01:02:47

Josh,
I was really impressed that villain should be bluffing something like 60%of the time on this river, but I am a bit confused due to his turn range. Correct me if I'm wrong, but at this point, we're looking at CHH, in otherwords cutoff, high cbet, honest on the turn. Since the river is a total brick, how many bluffs can villain still have in his river range after honestly 2 barreling the blank turn? Am I missing something here, or is this precisely WHY bluffing is so profitable (ie 60% of his bluffs/value cutting range is still not that many combos of hands due to his honest range).

I think it would help to know just how "honest" your villain's range is. What was your arbitrary cuttoff point for an honest vs a dishonest turn range?

BTW, you are a god at Excel-I can't even imagine how much time you put into these spread sheets. I haven't used half the ninja moves you've shown in this episode alone. I especially want to check out the "goal seek" function!

Thanks for all your hard work, guys!

Am I missing something here, or is this precisely WHY bluffing is so profitable (ie 60% of his bluffs/value cutting range is still not that many combos of hands due to his honest range).

I think it would help to know just how "honest" your villain's range is. What was your arbitrary cuttoff point for an honest vs a dishonest turn range?

The part I cut out of the first paragraph nails it. Take a situation where your range is 99% nuts and 1% air. It makes sense that you should be bluffing your air every single time because if villain can read hands at all, he's not calling your bet.

Conversely, if your range is 99% air and 1% nuts, then you simply can't get away with bluffing very often. You haven't done a good job of representing a strong hand to this point, and villain will feel inclined to look you up.

Bluffing frequency basically allows you to reconstruct your range.


These are my honest vs. dishonest ranges. I don't claim them to be correct (middle pair frequency seems low in particular) but it lets us compare:
HONEST 2B DISHONEST 2B
Nutted 100% 100%
2 Pair 100% 100%
Very strong TP 90% 100%
Strong TP 80% 85%
Medium TP 70% 75%
Weak TP 40% 55%
Underpair 10% 30%
Strong middle pair 10% 20%
OESD 35% 80%
Middle pair 5% 5%
Bottom pair 5% 5%
Strong A-high 5% 20%
Small pp 5% 15%
Nut gutter 25% 60%
A-high 10% 30%
Air 10% 30%


Good questions, and thanks for the kind words.

The part I cut out of the first paragraph nails it. Take a situation where your range is 99% nuts and 1% air. It makes sense that you should be bluffing your air every single time because if villain can read hands at all, he's not calling your bet...

Bluffing frequency basically allows you to reconstruct your range.


Good questions, and thanks for the kind words.

Thanks for your reply. even if the "accuracy" of your frequencies isn't perfect (but I'm sure there are players out there who use a similar strategy) the basic concept is made very clear by your analysis and presentation.

It would be kind of fun to use "goal seek" in excel, or a program like poker razor or Stox EV to do the inverse of what you did in this episode, i.e. try and optimize a 2 barreling and 3 barreling strategy vs a villain who is likely to be bluff catching on a given flop/turn to best TAKE ADVANTAGE of villain's reverse implied odds. As a result, for instance, we'd have a better idea if barreling our middle pairs at x frequency is a profitable strat. with a given perceived range. It could also help us decide which hands in our range to bluff with or value bet with by maximizing our equity. Not sure how much work it would take to figure this out, but I sure would like to explore which portions of our range we should barrel to best exploit the board texture, our perceived range, and our opponents' tendencies.

Min. 17: Where is the file with these graphs?
I only have the KJo-file and the "Reverse Implieds Odds-file" - there I cannot find any graphs.

Min. 17: Where is the file with these graphs?
I only have the KJo-file and the "Reverse Implieds Odds-file" - there I cannot find any graphs.

'Reverse Implied odds (E4-6).xls' has the graphs in this video. Do you have that file? if you don't, shoot me a PM.

Excel files:


https://www.yousendit.com/download/aHlUYURGeWFwcFd4dnc9PQ

It says this file has expired. Is there somewhere else we can download?

It says this file has expired. Is there somewhere else we can download?

This should be all of them for the series (copy the whole link):
http://membervideos.deucescracked.com/sthief09/14282/Playbook Sheets.rar