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Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by jk3a (Mid Stakes)

Not since Coaching tree 2 have I anticipated each vid of a series so much.

cool

On quiz hand Review of week 2: If we held JJ and the action was the same.
We bet $15 JJ and bet/call a river check shove?
Does that make JJ ~ Queens full?

Given most of his range is air and we have the top of our bluff catching range. And he never plays anything strong this way.

Maybe this should be in other vid thread.

bet 15-19 in last week's quiz looks exactly like a thin value bet. If the villan is thinking about our ranges at all wouldn't he notice this and not call with most of his bluff catchers? I think we need to either bet bigger to rep a bluff or smaller to get a curiosity call out of him.

bet 15-19 in last week's quiz looks exactly like a thin value bet. If the villan is thinking about our ranges at all wouldn't he notice this and not call with most of his bluff catchers? I think we need to either bet bigger to rep a bluff or smaller to get a curiosity call out of him.

not sure what to say other than you're def right that it's bad in theory, but works very well in practice against all sorts of people

not sure what to say other than you're def right that it's bad in theory, but works very well in practice against all sorts of people

I think it is because people get more "curious" against small bets. You don't see the small bets often, so you want to know what people do it with. You have more value hands if you pot it, and you see pot bets often.
Not to mention people talk themselves into an "odds-call"
I don't play this stake, just my 2cents

Answer to quiz: Given that the hand is blind vs blind, and villain is a regular and likely perceives us as a regular, I believe he will raise the flop with a wide range of both value hands and bluffs. Because of this, we call the flop raise. On turn turned T, we check and villain bets around 1/3 of the pot. I believe the most important thing to learn from this bet is that villain is NOT bluffing. While is flop raise could certainly be a bluff, betting 1/3 pot into a semi-wet board where our most likely hand is top pair is very very rarely going to be air from a regular. Given that we can decide that villain is not bluffing, and our hand doesn't beat any of villains value betting range, we can just fold the turn. Our decision: fold. However, it's important for learning's sake to understand more about villains range even if we already know our own decision. What exactly did villain take this line with? Given that we think villain is a regular and is unlikely do do something completely terrible, and that he's not setting stacks up for a river shove, I discount his extremly strong hands like sets of 55 and 66, as well as TJ (both because I suspect he would bet bigger, as well as he likely wouldn't raise the flop). I don't believe villain would take this line with a very strong hand to induce us to raise, because, since we called his flop raise, we don't have air to bluff with, and if we have a top pair hand or worse, we will just call the bet. I believe his most likely hands are semi-thin value hands such as AJ, followed by KJ and QJ (I think QJ is much less likely given his flop raise than KJ or AJ), and then possibly 65 (although it's discounted more than AJ or KJ because it is only beaten by JT and would likely bet bigger).

Reposting to make it a bit easier to read.

Answer to quiz: Given that the hand is blind vs blind, and villain is a regular and likely perceives us as a regular, I believe he will raise the flop with a wide range of both value hands and bluffs. Because of this, we call the flop raise.

On turn turned T, we check and villain bets around 1/3 of the pot. I believe the most important thing to learn from this bet is that villain is NOT bluffing. While is flop raise could certainly be a bluff, betting 1/3 pot into a semi-wet board where our most likely hand is top pair is very very rarely going to be air from a regular.

Given that we can decide that villain is not bluffing, and our hand doesn't beat any of villains value betting range, we can just fold the turn. Our decision: fold. However, it's important for learning's sake to understand more about villains range even if we already know our own decision.

What exactly did villain take this line with? Given that we think villain is a regular and is unlikely do do something completely terrible, and that he's not setting stacks up for a river shove, I discount his extremly strong hands like sets of 55 and 66, as well as TJ (both because I suspect he would bet bigger, as well as he likely wouldn't raise the flop). I don't believe villain would take this line with a very strong hand to induce us to raise, because, since we called his flop raise, we don't have air to bluff with, and if we have a top pair hand or worse, we will just call the bet.

I believe his most likely hands are semi-thin value hands such as AJ, followed by KJ and QJ (I think QJ is much less likely given his flop raise than KJ or AJ), and then possibly 65 (although it's discounted more than AJ or KJ because it is only beaten by JT and would likely bet bigger).

Quiz Answer:

His range is comprised of mostly bluffs/semibluffs, hands like 78s,89s,34s. He could have bluffraised the flop with a hand like Q8s,Q9s and now has turned a gutter so he wants to fire again with his bluff. There arent many Jx combo's he could have except for hands like J8s,J9s because he is 19/17 with a 3b of 16%, so he is 3betting QJ,KJ,AJ preflop in blind vs blind usually. His turn bet size combined with his flop raise really leans toward a weak Jx like J8 or J9, and bluff's/semi-bluffs that may have picked up a pair or a little extra equity. Its also important to notice that villains fold to cbet is 0 over 94 hands so far. So i think its more likely villain is making a play or semi-bluffing.

I don't agree with sizing at all on the quiz hand from last week. How is ~40 not better than 15-20? The % of the time he calls either bet if he's competent should b relatively close.

I disagree with the fold with k8 diamond hand. We asummed that villan is calling with a tight range based on fold to 3 bet over 100 hand or so which is small sample. Even if villan turns over AJ it's probabily about even EV to call given money in the pot with our BD straight and flush draw equity. villan can certainly call the 3 bet with suited broadway like QJs and other sc.


Quiz answer

villan is likely to be semibluffing the turn with a draw with the small bet. I would call and fold river to a bet

I don't agree with sizing at all on the quiz hand from last week. How is ~40 not better than 15-20? The % of the time he calls either bet if he's competent should b relatively close.

what specific part(s) of the explanation did you disagree with?

I disagree with the fold with k8 diamond hand. We asummed that villan is calling with a tight range based on fold to 3 bet over 100 hand or so which is small sample. Even if villan turns over AJ it's probabily about even EV to call given money in the pot with our BD straight and flush draw equity. villan can certainly call the 3 bet with suited broadway like QJs and other sc.

said in the video that it was close if villain can have a semibluff or two

Time Link to 00:09:35

From last week's quiz, you mention that the small bet size is very exploitable. Why doesn't this matter? Does it have more to do with this particular villain not being good enough to exploit us, or is it a general statement about 100NL TAGs?

From last week's quiz, you mention that the small bet size is very exploitable. Why doesn't this matter? Does it have more to do with this particular villain not being good enough to exploit us, or is it a general statement about 100NL TAGs?

saying that it doesn't matter because so few players in general will exploit it by always folding or never bluffing

Quiz answer:

After he raises us on the flop, I'd estimate his range to be sets, 65s, 87s, possibly a 79s/89s (based on his stats it's unlikely that he is playing the offsuit variants of these hands), I think that it is pretty unlikely that he would raise a naked top pair hand here very often. His 3bet% probably has him 3betting some of the better Jx hands preflop esp, since it's blind vs blind. He of course will have a good amount of air, probably some weaker broadwayish hands like KTo, QTo, Q9s, and some Ax hands.

When he bets the turn so small it looks like he is either setting himself a cheap price with a semibluff or thinly value betting. So sets and 65 are out. A hand like 87 or 89 makes a lot of sense, a K9/Q9 hand that now turned some more equity fits the bill as well. Given that we have 99, I think 87s is probably his most likely holding.

He may be thinly value betting a Jx hand but as stated before he really shouldn't have that many that he wouldn't 3bet preflop with or flat the flop with. Any Tx hand that bluff raised the flop I feel would check back the turn, any other air hand I feel would follow up the turn larger if he was going to bet again or give up.

quizz : 77- 88 - a6 - at - air

dont ask me why , i dont no !!

PF
Blind vs Blind
23/20 Steal 35 vs
19/17 Steal 20 3b 16?

PF Range
Tom's range is Extremely wide - Stealing SB when folded to are traditionally the weakest range of regulars. Given he is playing likely another regular
(a) Stats : 19/17
(b) Full Buyin
(c) SN tell: ReadRoll
When villian does not 3-bet a wide steal range IP BVB and villian is TAG regular - we know his range is not wide and is mainly composed of holdings that play well IP and in better in single raised pots than 3bet pots.
Medium and low PPs capped at 99 and TT at the most.
Medium and low SCx and One gappers maybe even some two gappers prolly capped at QJs.

Thus Tom's
PF range can be as wide as 60% of hands
22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T2s+,95s+,84s+,73s+,64s+,54s,A2o+,K2o+,Q8o+,J8o+,T7o+,97o+,86o+,76o

Villians range is however quite defined imo.
99-22,Q9s+,J8s+,T7s+,96s+,86s+,75s+,65s,54s,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o,98o,87o,76o

FLOP
J65 rainbow

On the assumption that both players can read boards well: I think the following is taking place.
Hero will c-bet this flop all the time HU PFR and dry board against a capped range. Tom like alot of SSNL players prolly c-bets too much but here is a very appropriate.
Villian is aware that a TAG regular range is widest SB steal vs BB and that J65 is a very dry board and that Tom will c-bet ~100% of the time.
So villian raises his air and draws here 100% of the time here because with a range of anywhere upto 60% of all hands in tom's range and a dry board - villian raising everytime will show an immediate profit.
Now given it is SSNL - villian prolly does not get played back at with Hero's air enough of the time - so villian can raise and fold to bet/3bet line with confidence.

I do not expect villian to be raising very many pairs here. For these reasons.
(a) It is a small pot on a dry board - so I do not think Tom will likely just bomb away with medium strength hands or air very often. Because Tom cannot expect too many cards to be good barrelling cards, he cannot represent too many strong holdings and it is hard to have any bluff leverage OOP in a single raised pot. Which means that villian can expect to get to showdown with his bluff catchers - thus the need to protect his hand by raising is alot less likely.
(b) 19/17 - do not value bet thinly enough and bluff often enough to expect to play for stacks with QJ type hands - so they tend not to think that any worse will play for stacks vs regulars. Thus they do not tend to raise QJ. A kind of chicken/egg problem but the reality nonetheless.
(c) PF action has taken out most of his likely range of Overpairs and TPTK TP2K holdings that might raise/call or raise - barrell for value.

So then we are left with value holdings of 2pr and sets.
(a) I do not think J6s and J5s are in his range given they prolly constitute the core part of his bluff 3-bet IP range.
(b) It might be that he raises 65s, 55, 66 (JJ is not there because he 3-bet pre) - if there is a levelling aggro dynamic or Tom has a habit of 3-bet bluffing his air or responding badly to aggression. But not know that - we can assume that he prolly does not do that.
(c) It is pretty obvious on a board where you crush vs a wide range - villian wants Hero to catch something - so why blow him off the hand.

If any 2pr hand does this it is 65s which is only 4 combos.

So I think his range is air and draws.

Turn - our read is confirmed where he bets small on the turn.
Now here is the thing.
A good portion of his air may have like a bd strd bdfd with a ten in it.
So some of the time we should be careful when seeing this bet.
Sometimes its Tx that does not feel it can bet too large on the turn but does not want to check the turn and bluff catch a river lead from Hero.
The bet size tells us another thing.
If hero calls
Pot size will be $114 or 57bb with effective stacks of 72bb.
This allows villian to have a river bluff shove for more than a pot size bet. Given he cannot raise flop and check turn then shove river and have any credibility with his line - he bets the turn to look like he is still strong but keeps the pots size small enough so he can shove the river with a big bet.

If he had a 2pr+ hand on the flop I think A TAG regular would manage SPR better for the river.

So I think he has equity in draws either from the flop or picked up more on the turn maybe a pair T.

So final range is his PF range absent 2pr+ Maybe one combo of 56s. Absent all his one pair hands except some Tx and all his draws and his air is anything left over.
Tx will take showdown by checking back river cause our holding with bet/call flop c/c turn check river looks like Jx and bluff catchers, busted draws giving up.
Draws that missed will shove.
Air will shove.
So my plan is c/c turn and c/c any river but not liking it on 8s,7s and 4s. ** but not sure if this is a leak of mine.

Final range for Villian: QTs-Q9s,J9s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,6h5h,QTo-Q9o,T9o,98o,87o

Quiz:

Only hand that makes sense to me is J10 - nope this isn't a range but he isn't bluffing here and is more likely looking to induce action. Its unlikely he raises the flop with a set. If he has a worse J than AJ I don't think he bets 1/3 pot. He either checks behind to control pot or makes a more standard 55-60%pot value bet. Looks like he is trying to give you perceived fold equity to make a bluff.

quiz

villan has a set with 66 or 55.

his flat pre, smallpp makes sense

his flop raise size to a little over 2.5x, consistent with a value size, not a snap 2x bluff size, he has thoughth it out and thinks this is best for value

his turn bet is small, but its enought to create a river bet which if not effective stack sized is close enough, he really wants a call, to build a pot and to not blow you off a big pair. he is not trying to get you to fold, he is trying to get you to call to my mind.

his turn sizing does invite you to call with broadway draws, but i just feel he already made the decision that he is willing to take that chance with his set, and isnt folding regardless, and he may already have discounted un.paired broadways from your range given your betting and calling, he most likely thinks correctly your drawing to two outs.

Hi,

Quiz Answer:
Villian is a reg with 19/17 and 3b 16%. Well we dont now how much he´s 3b in the BB (espacially vs a SB Openraise).
Most time villian will raise hands like A10s, AJ+; 1010+. Some regs on nl 200 with 16% 3b will reraise 22+ against a openraise from sb. Like i said most time villian would 3b JJ+ so this kind of hands are unlikely

Flop: range could be a set 55, 66, 56s a pure bluff, maybe a smaller pair 77,88 were he want to figuere out were he stands and could be a st8draw with 78s, 78o, 89 (=unlikely because we block two 99).

I dont think that villian will raise AJ, QJ, J10 on the flop so often because with this hands, he is in a way ahead/way behind situation. Next point is that the board is dry (okay one str8draw) and he is in position.

Turn: when he 1/3 pet the turn. It could be J10 but like i said i dont really think he will raised it in most of the time. So this hand is rarely.

Sets are still in his range. This bet could be also 56s were he dont want to c/c because of the guessing thing.
In my opion we can not full elaminate a draw with 78 were he dont want to c/f. From the stats he should be a thinking player. The board was very dry so when hero call the raise, villian has to give hero no floats or many drawing hands. With this betsize he doesnt create much fold equity. It seems that 1. he wants to get a call or 2. he wants to see a cheap river.

In my opion he´s range is: sets 55; 66; 1010;56, and somethimes a draw with 78.

Quiz answer

I think his flop-raise is rather wide, yet it´s totally polarized between nut-type hands (namely 66, 55) and air. It´s BvB and Tom´s perceived range on this particular flop is very weak, which gives Villain a broad bluffing-range in combination with some rare monster-hands.

I doubt that any hands with showdown-value like 77-99, AT, Jx (JT included!) would ever raise this flop in position.

So, his small turnbet totally confirms my assumption about his range - and everything I said still holds up. His range is divided into complete air (maybe as good as a gutter) and monster-hands that don´t want to lose hands like JT.

Said this, I think we stick to our plan and call again.

Quiz answer:

Preflop:
I'd expect BB's range to be rather wide.

77-22,A9s-A2s,KTs-K8s,QTs-Q9s,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,76s,65s,54s,AJo-A9o,KTo+,QTo+,JTo.

Flop:
The board is dry and good for the BB to float with some many middling cards in his range. When he raises, his range is some monsters, value hands, and weaker draws. Because it's SB vs BB, I'll assume that BB is capable of raising here with some top pair hands for value.

77,55,A6s,97s+,8c7c,8d7d,65s,AJo,KJo+,QJo,JTo

Turn:

Weird bet size - doesn't set up getting stacks in. I have to eliminate the top of BB's range because Tom should have a tight range with maybe some A high type hands sprinkled in after calling the flop, plus blind vs blind, villain should expect to get more value with monsters against all the Jx hands in Tom's range. (This logic is a combo of people don't fold top pair blind vs blind, and I think Tom would bet/call AK on the flop.) I'll leave some combos of JT in BB's range because really the only draw Tom can have here is if he called the flop with 87s. Other than that, it looks like villain is making a thin value bet or a small bluff to fold out high cards or middle pocket pairs.

BB turn range - 98s,8c7c,8d7d,KQo,QJo,JTo

what specific part(s) of the explanation did you disagree with?

Isn't the % of the time he calls either bet size relatively similar?

Isn't the % of the time he calls either bet size relatively similar?

wouldn't think so

Watched it

It would be cool if you could tell more about SS NL leaks in general. Not only "Tom you did good/bad in this hand" but also this is a spot where a lot of players do this and this is bad because. Also I've got a question since we mention about exploiting/being exploited: if you see that a guy cbets 80% flop and only 30% turn and always folds if he didn't double barrel - what is your plan - play him almost every flop in position and always float until he notices / leaves the table from being frustrated? Or tone down a little so he won't notice it that fast?

Watched it

It would be cool if you could tell more about SS NL leaks in general. Not only "Tom you did good/bad in this hand" but also this is a spot where a lot of players do this and this is bad because. Also I've got a question since we mention about exploiting/being exploited: if you see that a guy cbets 80% flop and only 30% turn and always folds if he didn't double barrel - what is your plan - play him almost every flop in position and always float until he notices / leaves the table from being frustrated? Or tone down a little so he won't notice it that fast?

most of tom's leaks are very common

generally the best way to exploit someone is to do it in a way that shows a significant profit but never so much that they adjust. against the described villain I'd def float more often than normal.

Quiz answer:

Looks like mostly nuts or air type hands to me.

Prf range: 22-66, A9-A2, K9s-K7s, KTo, QJo-T9o, T8s, 97s, 87s-54s, 86s, 75s.

As others have mentioned, his 3bet is high and he's a reg in a BvB, so the big suiteds raise. And some of the better SCs like T9s or 98s.

Flop range: Hands with a piece that could CR -- 55, 66, 65s, QJo-JTo, T8s, 97s, 87s, 76s.
Hands w/o a piece that could CR -- some of the Ax, so say, A8 and A7, and say K8s, K7s

The flop is dry, BvB, vs an aggro SB, there's a lot that can CR here. Naturally, it's hard to say which parts of the total air actually CR, so the w/o a piece are guesses.
He probably calls the hands like A6 or A5, 75s, or 54s. He doesn't fold to cbets and he can't raise 'em all. Plus people don't really know what to do with hands like those in these situations so they mostly call with them.

Turn: 55, 66, JTo, 6s5s, ~Td8d, 97s, 87s, A8, K7s

I only left one 65 combo from the hit range on the flop only because I think he sometimes bets larger to protect since it's vulnerable to quite a few cards. Same deal with QJo, but I think that is even less likely to bet small.
T8s is the only non-big hand value betting hand I included, and I think it's very rare that it's here. Probably rarer to even be here than 65 betting bigger, so I only gave it one combo. And I tilda'ed it too.
And the GS/air hands are self explanatory. I cut some of the air hands just since he doesn't always follow through, although I think he barrels a lot here.

You didn't ask what to do, but I think it's a call. Not sure I do it though only because the river is going to be hard to play. Sthief talked about fundamentally correct plays not always being best just because the situation gets so difficult to make the correct move the next street and I think this might be one of those.

Looks like I am out on my own on not thinking he would raise his monsters on this board.
I mean maybe I am confusing what he should with what he does.
Or I am flat out wrong.
Or I win the quiz by myself.

Either way I would like jk3a to discuss villians line with nut hands on this baord.....if not in video at least in this thread.

Quiz:
Why do the villian not bet around 35 so that he can get a potsize bet on river? If he was playing a calling station he would certainly do that with a set, but maybe he is afraid the regular in sb will fold to much and wants to entice a call with a slightly smaller bet. So some of his range includes 66 and 55 but not that likely. Both trips and a twopar hand like 65s and JT would probably bet larger to get value from hands like AJ and KJ. I can give him one combo of 65 and one combo of 66 or 55. He could have 77, 88, and take a cheap stab on the turn to make you fold AK or AQ or a par (give him one combo of those). It could be a hand like A6 and A5 for the same reason. Bigger Ax like AT and AJ he probably 3bets pre. KQ and 89 is also a likely holding if you only look on his turn action, but since we have two nines not so likely, and KQ would he also most likely 3bet pre and on the flop only call and not raise. We then have Jx hands left which he can bet for thin value afraid that the hero could have a better hand. KJ, QJ, J8s and one combo of J9 since we have two nines (maybe he would 3bet KJ and QJ pre though). He could also have a hand like 87s or 87o which gives him a oesd. On the turn he could check that hand hoping to hit on river, but he could also do like this and get some more money in if he hits and make the hero fold out many hands that beat him at the moment.
Finally could he have air? Not very likely since most hands he call with pre hits this board in some way. Maybe some Ax hand so I give him two combo of that
Villians range on turn: 87, KJ, QJ, J8s, J9(1), 88 (1) (or 77), 66 (1)(or 55), JT (1) (or 65), A6 (or A5), A7 (1) and A3 (1)

Time Link to 00:41:12

In my opinion, he snap called with a set, because he was drawing to a paired board, and hoping you had a straight, or would make a draw on the river with the pairing of the board. Not justifying it, but I think that's why he did it.

good vid, but tecmo, it could take you months to get through standard breakeven stretches at this rate of volume. one thing that helps me put in volume is physical exercise eg between sessions, freshens the mind and makes you 'ready' again even if you've played that day. might not apply to you but who knows it might help you...(this is good to get in frequent small sessions)

good vid, but tecmo, it could take you months to get through standard breakeven stretches at this rate of volume. one thing that helps me put in volume is physical exercise eg between sessions, freshens the mind and makes you 'ready' again even if you've played that day. might not apply to you but who knows it might help you...(this is good to get in frequent small sessions)

+1 this, and if you're not feeling up to it at that time put in your volume at a lower limit. Either way, you need to get a lot more volume in my opinion.

Time Link to 00:31:41

Hey Tecmo, I play 100 NL, and in this spot if I bet 48 as opposed to 64 on the turn, I'm usually seeing if you'll reraise me, and the extra 16 chips makes my river shove nastier. Yes I turn 10's into a bluff, but usually it's when someone 3 bet my 10's as opposed to me 3 betting with them.

Quiz answer:
this guy is clearly a TAG, but with only 94 hands, I don't think we can read too much into his 16% 3Bet stat. This is also BB v SB, so he could definitely be flatting some hands here which he might 3bet a lot otherwise. I think his range at this point is something like any pair below TT, any broadway, and a handful of suited connectors. Maybe also some suited Aces.

When he check-raises the flop, his value range is pretty damn small. JJ, 55 and 66 are the only really strong hands I can see. I would have expected JJ+ to 3Bet PF almost all the time, so I would heavily discount JJ and overpairs. Some people go crazy in spots like this with top pair, so I could see some thin value hands like AJ and KJ sometimes doing this. It is also very likely that he sees us as a TAG, and knows we probably missed this dry board, so he has just decided he is going to take this pot away from us!

With the small bet on the turn, I really don't think he has better than TPTK. We have already called a check-raise, so if he wanted to play for stacks he could be about $40-$45 here and setup a nice, easy river shove. I think his range now is something like this:
Value hands: 55,66,TT,JT,AJ,KJ
Semi-bluffs: KQ,78s,98s
Bluffs: a whole lot of air that tried to steal it on the flop and doesn't quite know what to do now!

Hi,

Quiz Answer:
Villian is a reg with 19/17 and 3b 16%. Well we dont now how much he´s 3b in the BB (espacially vs a SB Openraise).
Most time villian will raise hands like A10s, AJ+; 1010+. Some regs on nl 200 with 16% 3b will reraise 22+ against a openraise from sb. Like i said most time villian would 3b JJ+ so this kind of hands are unlikely

Flop: range could be a set 55, 66, 56s a pure bluff, maybe a smaller pair 77,88 were he want to figuere out were he stands and could be a st8draw with 78s, 78o, 89 (=unlikely because we block two 99).

I dont think that villian will raise AJ, QJ, J10 on the flop so often because with this hands, he is in a way ahead/way behind situation. Next point is that the board is dry (okay one str8draw) and he is in position.

Turn: when he 1/3 pet the turn. It could be J10 but like i said i dont really think he will raised it in most of the time. So this hand is rarely.

Sets are still in his range. This bet could be also 56s were he dont want to c/c because of the guessing thing.
In my opion we can not full elaminate a draw with 78 were he dont want to c/f. From the stats he should be a thinking player. The board was very dry so when hero call the raise, villian has to give hero no floats or many drawing hands. With this betsize he doesnt create much fold equity. It seems that 1. he wants to get a call or 2. he wants to see a cheap river.

In my opion he´s range is: sets 55; 66; 1010;56, and somethimes a draw with 78 and maybe A10 when he bluffs the flop and want to small bet/fold the turn

Quiz answer:
this guy is clearly a TAG, but with only 94 hands, I don't think we can read too much into his 16% 3Bet stat. This is also BB v SB, so he could definitely be flatting some hands here which he might 3bet a lot otherwise. I think his range at this point is something like any pair below TT, any broadway, and a handful of suited connectors. Maybe also some suited Aces.

When he check-raises the flop, his value range is pretty damn small. JJ, 55 and 66 are the only really strong hands I can see. I would have expected JJ+ to 3Bet PF almost all the time, so I would heavily discount JJ and overpairs. Some people go crazy in spots like this with top pair, so I could see some thin value hands like AJ and KJ sometimes doing this. It is also very likely that he sees us as a TAG, and knows we probably missed this dry board, so he has just decided he is going to take this pot away from us!

With the small bet on the turn, I really don't think he has better than TPTK. We have already called a check-raise, so if he wanted to play for stacks he could be about $40-$45 here and setup a nice, easy river shove. I think his range now is something like this:
Value hands: 55,66,TT,JT,AJ,KJ
Semi-bluffs: KQ,78s,98s
Bluffs: a whole lot of air that tried to steal it on the flop and doesn't quite know what to do now!

yay I thought I was going crazy - at least I am not alone now.

Hi,
Quiz Answer part 3:

when i review my answer last night i find out that i made a mistake. I forgot one important thing while i´m writing it. The important thing is, that villian has position. So in my opionio this will change the range. I think its polarized more the hands he could have.

So villian could still have 2Pairs and sets like 56, J10, 55,66, 1010!, (maybe in some cases JJ when he want to mixed up his game), and somethimes AJ (but like i said i think on nl 200 most people wouldnt vb the turn)

But could he have 78, 98 QK on the flop? Yeah he could.
could he have it on the turn? I dont think so. Why? because villian has position. And after hero raise preflop, B/C the flop. i think villian would take a freecard to see if his oesd shows up on the river. I dont think that villian will bet a oesd on the turn again. Well it will happend somethimes sure, but not that often. So this fact will polarized hes range more to a strong hand or maybe a hand were he will bet for free showdown on the river. If the quiz answer was: "Give me the only hand he could have" i would say its a set. Looks really like 1010.

yay I thought I was going crazy - at least I am not alone now.

You're not crazy, I just thought we don't have enough information to assume he can't be playing his strong hands strong.

Well why make that silly $15 turn bet?
I just think if he makes a stronger turn bet - we pitch our hand because he organising stacks. Why leave that stack size behind? It is to give him enough to get us off our largely medium strength range.

So I mean I can get my head around being wrong on the flop. Sure I see sets being raised on dry boards reg v reg because of a levelling we cant rep much but we have what we are repping dynamic hoping we just bet/3bet AJ+ but does that really make sense having seen the turn bet size?

Final thing on my air/draw based range - is reg vs reg sb vs bb - is the home of crazy spew plays. I guess we just get paranoid seeing in HEM how much we bleed through the blinds.

Well why make that silly $15 turn bet?
I just think if he makes a stronger turn bet - we pitch our hand because he organising stacks. Why leave that stack size behind? It is to give him enough to get us off our largely medium strength range.

So I mean I can get my head around being wrong on the flop. Sure I see sets being raised on dry boards reg v reg because of a levelling we cant rep much but we have what we are repping dynamic hoping we just bet/3bet AJ+ but does that really make sense having seen the turn bet size?

If I were at the table I could probably tell you more about the bet size. And I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just saying I couldn't exclude nut hands because he could've CRed the flop with them and then bet a 'please call me' bet. Like you said, people do weird things in BvB. If hero's range is mid pairs and TPNKs, he's not always going to believe the check raise, and that cheeseball bet is probably going to get called a lot. That's why I still have nut hands in. but, one gets shown a lot of stupid shit at the low levels, maybe I just have a hard time cutting out hands.

Preflop hand range:
Villian is 19/17 with a 16% 3bet range and this is BvB, so I would expect him to 3bet all of his good hands here (all broadways and PPs).

A call from a player with such a high 3bet percentage really narrows down his hand range. I think it polarizes his hand hand range to weaker speculative hands (98s-54s, T8s-86s, 55-22) and less likely slowplayed premium hands (AA-QQ). Villian will always 3bet here unless he has a strong reason not too. Also, I would expect an aggressive regular in position to call preflop here with other weaker hands with the intention of taking the pot away on a good flop.

I'm not folding the flop with a good pair BvB against an aggressive player. A good player might expect us to miss this flop and fold quite often to a raise.

Turn:
Villian slightly overbets pot and now bets 1/3 pot on the turn, after we called a sizable flop raise. I think this eliminates monster hands, as villian would expect us to be more likely to call a big bet on the turn when we called a flop raise.

So I think his range is:
Semi-bluff hands like 98s, 87s, 97s,; hands that semi-bluffed raised the flop with a draw and are two-barreling on the turn
Air giving it another shot

We're at least calling because we're ahead of villian so much. I'm calling a lot of rivers. I'm not quite confident enough to call a river shove with a bluff catcher yet, but if a non-straight card hits I think it might be ok.

If I were at the table I could probably tell you more about the bet size. And I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just saying I couldn't exclude nut hands because he could've CRed the flop with them and then bet a 'please call me' bet. Like you said, people do weird things in BvB. If hero's range is mid pairs and TPNKs, he's not always going to believe the check raise, and that cheeseball bet is probably going to get called a lot. That's why I still have nut hands in. but, one gets shown a lot of stupid shit at the low levels, maybe I just have a hard time cutting out hands.

Well I know we are dealing with small sample sizes but he cb is 80% 2b 100%
He is in position and dry board and he looks pretty aggro overall.
Given it is hard to flop sets and 2pr - I think there is just so much air.
And its not as if Tom has weak tight stats - so I dont think villian can float these dry boards and if he cant float then he prolly raises his air.

QUIZ 3

POOLSWEEPER


Reasons you might not have been picked.

1. You said he could have air in his turn betting range.

I strongly believe that any air or semibluff hands are almost non existent when he bets that small.

2. Turn range incorrect. Mention Jx but not Tx.

There were a few answers I thought were very close, but ultimately what I was looking for was an answer that basically said. His range is mostly weak made hands including Jx and Tx.


Digger,

To address your questions about slowplaying on the flop, I generally assume that most tags are not slowplaying enough and raise atleast slightly more often than they call. And I all but eliminate those hands from his turn range because of the small sizing.

QUIZ 3

POOLSWEEPER

Wouldn´t it be nicer if everybody posts his answer in the forum instead of sending you a PM? In this case we can´t even have a look at the winner answer ...

Jk3a - If you had a mindseye view of villians thought process - could you go through why he bet-sizes the turn the way he does?
If you don't in the video.

Can you discuss the merits of raising air - putting in a small turn bet to shove the river? In this spot vs a regular like Tom.

Jk3a - If you had a mindseye view of villians thought process - could you go through why he bet-sizes the turn the way he does?
If you don't in the video.

Can you discuss the merits of raising air - putting in a small turn bet to shove the river? In this spot vs a regular like Tom.

prob bets that size because he doesn't want to make a river decision or is confused

tom never folds not good idea to bet that size on the turn with just about anything

tom never folds not good idea to bet that size on the turn with just about anything

I'm learning!

Hi,

Watched the video and was pretty shocked by your view on his WTSD and W$@SD.

Over my last 65k hands my WTSD is 29.8% and W$SD is 54.4%.

This seems like a bit of a contradiction to what you were saying, logic would say that if I'm going to SD too much then you'd think that my W$@SD would be lower that you'd expect; however the opposite is true, it's higher than you'd expect!!!

Is this just a case of running insanely hot? Do you think that this is a glaring leak, or as a result of the characteristic of my play? I play ~ 24/21.

I would just like to say one more time.

Jk3a - I really appreciate how much you are putting into this series.

I like its format.

Hi,

Watched the video and was pretty shocked by your view on his WTSD and W$@SD.

Over my last 65k hands my WTSD is 29.8% and W$SD is 54.4%.

This seems like a bit of a contradiction to what you were saying, logic would say that if I'm going to SD too much then you'd think that my W$@SD would be lower that you'd expect; however the opposite is true, it's higher than you'd expect!!!

Is this just a case of running insanely hot? Do you think that this is a glaring leak, or as a result of the characteristic of my play? I play ~ 24/21.

what stakes? that w$@sd is very impressive given your wtsd

I would just like to say one more time.

Jk3a - I really appreciate how much you are putting into this series.

I like its format.

thx

what stakes? that w$@sd is very impressive given your wtsd

I have similar stats at 200NL over 32k hands my WTSD 28.2%, W$SD 56.2 and W$WSF 50.4. I got this kind of stats by inducing bluffs, taking value bet lines that the villan think is bluffy, and checking down some marginal showdown hands including A high vs villan who will let you get to showdown instead of cbetting.

I have similar stats at 200NL over 32k hands my WTSD 28.2%, W$SD 56.2 and W$WSF 50.4. I got this kind of stats by inducing bluffs, taking value bet lines that the villan think is bluffy, and checking down some marginal showdown hands including A high vs villan who will let you get to showdown instead of cbetting.

I obv don't know the ins and outs of your game, but I would guess that you are passive on the river and don't valuebet too thinly. If you are checking in spots where you could make a small/thin valuebet with likely the best hand, you will get to showdown more and will win more when you do.

I obv don't know the ins and outs of your game, but I would guess that you are passive on the river and don't valuebet too thinly. If you are checking in spots where you could make a small/thin valuebet with likely the best hand, you will get to showdown more and will win more when you do.

this is probabily true but not always value betting thin on the river protects your checking range. I probabily could value bet more though but always value betting thin is a exploitable leak too.

this is probabily true but not always value betting thin on the river protects your checking range. I probabily could value bet more though but always value betting thin is a exploitable leak too.

There are def spots where it is too thin to bet. I'm just saying that your style of passivity on the river will inevitably raise your wtsd and w$sd #s. I play an aggressive style where I valubet thinly and my red line is usually in the positive because of it. I would suggest looking for river spots where you find yourself checking the best hand too often and see if there is value in a bet, especially if your red line is going in the wrong direction.

There are def spots where it is too thin to bet. I'm just saying that your style of passivity on the river will inevitably raise your wtsd and w$sd #s. I play an aggressive style where I valubet thinly and my red line is usually in the positive because of it. I would suggest looking for river spots where you find yourself checking the best hand too often and see if there is value in a bet, especially if your red line is going in the wrong direction.

what is your river aggression freqency? I'm around 28 to 30, can't check now from work

There are def spots where it is too thin to bet. I'm just saying that your style of passivity on the river will inevitably raise your wtsd and w$sd #s. I play an aggressive style where I valubet thinly and my red line is usually in the positive because of it. I would suggest looking for river spots where you find yourself checking the best hand too often and see if there is value in a bet, especially if your red line is going in the wrong direction.

pretty sure your red line is positive mostly because of the calling too much. not that you're not good at vbetting

what is your river aggression freqency? I'm around 28 to 30, can't check now from work

I have no idea.

pretty sure your red line is positive mostly because of the calling too much. not that you're not good at vbetting

Anything for the red line imo!

PF
Blind vs Blind
23/20 Steal 35 vs
19/17 Steal 20 3b 16?

PF Range
Tom's range is Extremely wide - Stealing SB when folded to are traditionally the weakest range of regulars. Given he is playing likely another regular
(a) Stats : 19/17
(b) Full Buyin
(c) SN tell: ReadRoll
When villian does not 3-bet a wide steal range IP BVB and villian is TAG regular - we know his range is not wide and is mainly composed of holdings that play well IP and in better in single raised pots than 3bet pots.
Medium and low PPs capped at 99 and TT at the most.
Medium and low SCx and One gappers maybe even some two gappers prolly capped at QJs.

Thus Tom's
PF range can be as wide as 60% of hands
22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T2s+,95s+,84s+,73s+,64s+,54s,A2o+,K2o+,Q8o+,J8o+,T7o+,97o+,86o+,76o

Villians range is however quite defined imo.
99-22,Q9s+,J8s+,T7s+,96s+,86s+,75s+,65s,54s,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o,98o,87o,76o

FLOP
J65 rainbow

On the assumption that both players can read boards well: I think the following is taking place.
Hero will c-bet this flop all the time HU PFR and dry board against a capped range. Tom like alot of SSNL players prolly c-bets too much but here is a very appropriate.
Villian is aware that a TAG regular range is widest SB steal vs BB and that J65 is a very dry board and that Tom will c-bet ~100% of the time.
So villian raises his air and draws here 100% of the time here because with a range of anywhere upto 60% of all hands in tom's range and a dry board - villian raising everytime will show an immediate profit.
Now given it is SSNL - villian prolly does not get played back at with Hero's air enough of the time - so villian can raise and fold to bet/3bet line with confidence.

I do not expect villian to be raising very many pairs here. For these reasons.
(a) It is a small pot on a dry board - so I do not think Tom will likely just bomb away with medium strength hands or air very often. Because Tom cannot expect too many cards to be good barrelling cards, he cannot represent too many strong holdings and it is hard to have any bluff leverage OOP in a single raised pot. Which means that villian can expect to get to showdown with his bluff catchers - thus the need to protect his hand by raising is alot less likely.
(b) 19/17 - do not value bet thinly enough and bluff often enough to expect to play for stacks with QJ type hands - so they tend not to think that any worse will play for stacks vs regulars. Thus they do not tend to raise QJ. A kind of chicken/egg problem but the reality nonetheless.
(c) PF action has taken out most of his likely range of Overpairs and TPTK TP2K holdings that might raise/call or raise - barrell for value.

So then we are left with value holdings of 2pr and sets.
(a) I do not think J6s and J5s are in his range given they prolly constitute the core part of his bluff 3-bet IP range.
(b) It might be that he raises 65s, 55, 66 (JJ is not there because he 3-bet pre) - if there is a levelling aggro dynamic or Tom has a habit of 3-bet bluffing his air or responding badly to aggression. But not know that - we can assume that he prolly does not do that.
(c) It is pretty obvious on a board where you crush vs a wide range - villian wants Hero to catch something - so why blow him off the hand.

If any 2pr hand does this it is 65s which is only 4 combos.

So I think his range is air and draws.

Turn - our read is confirmed where he bets small on the turn.
Now here is the thing.
A good portion of his air may have like a bd strd bdfd with a ten in it.
So some of the time we should be careful when seeing this bet.
Sometimes its Tx that does not feel it can bet too large on the turn but does not want to check the turn and bluff catch a river lead from Hero.
The bet size tells us another thing.
If hero calls
Pot size will be $114 or 57bb with effective stacks of 72bb.
This allows villian to have a river bluff shove for more than a pot size bet. Given he cannot raise flop and check turn then shove river and have any credibility with his line - he bets the turn to look like he is still strong but keeps the pots size small enough so he can shove the river with a big bet.

If he had a 2pr+ hand on the flop I think A TAG regular would manage SPR better for the river.

So I think he has equity in draws either from the flop or picked up more on the turn maybe a pair T.

So final range is his PF range absent 2pr+ Maybe one combo of 56s. Absent all his one pair hands except some Tx and all his draws and his air is anything left over.
Tx will take showdown by checking back river cause our holding with bet/call flop c/c turn check river looks like Jx and bluff catchers, busted draws giving up.
Draws that missed will shove.
Air will shove.
So my plan is c/c turn and c/c any river but not liking it on 8s,7s and 4s. ** but not sure if this is a leak of mine.

Final range for Villian: QTs-Q9s,J9s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,6h5h,QTo-Q9o,T9o,98o,87o

Turn - our read is confirmed where he bets small on the turn.
Now here is the thing.
A good portion of his air may have like a bd strd bdfd with a ten in it.
So some of the time we should be careful when seeing this bet.
Sometimes its Tx that does not feel it can bet too large on the turn but does not want to check the turn and bluff catch a river lead from Hero.
The bet size tells us another thing.

Final range for Villian: QTs-Q9s,J9s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,6h5h,QTo-Q9o,T9o,98o,87o


I am not complaining Jk3a - but I think my range and reasoning is correct.

I think his medium strength hands and weak top pairs call on the flop and do not raise.
Given the lack of 3bet pre - I do not think he has many top pairs.

I think the turn bet size is Tx a ton because his bet size indicates he is confused - but given there is so much air on the flop - this confusion is Tx rather than Jx due to the fact that our bet/call on the flop looks alot like Jx.

At the turn I think I have most of the Tx that he can have in his range in my assigned range.

I mean maybe there are alot of things in my answer that were wrong or I was right for the wrong reasons.

I dunno but I was not suprise to see Tx appear when we get to showdown.

Can you clarify - how I was wrong?

100NL 6M - I find can be spewey with air bluffs - but really I am not seeing Jx always raising I do not think they are always aggressive with like J9 or JT in this spot. I assume I am just wrong on this.

What you seem to be saying is that on boards like this:
Regulars only ever just bluff the flop then give up in position?
Is that where I am wrong?

Can both be true where they play Jx quite strongly on dry boards but always give up on air bluffs?

Turn - our read is confirmed where he bets small on the turn.
Now here is the thing.
A good portion of his air may have like a bd strd bdfd with a ten in it.
So some of the time we should be careful when seeing this bet.
Sometimes its Tx that does not feel it can bet too large on the turn but does not want to check the turn and bluff catch a river lead from Hero.
The bet size tells us another thing.

Final range for Villian: QTs-Q9s,J9s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,6h5h,QTo-Q9o,T9o,98o,87o


I am not complaining Jk3a - but I think my range and reasoning is correct.

I think his medium strength hands and weak top pairs call on the flop and do not raise.
Given the lack of 3bet pre - I do not think he has many top pairs.

I think the turn bet size is Tx a ton because his bet size indicates he is confused - but given there is so much air on the flop - this confusion is Tx rather than Jx due to the fact that our bet/call on the flop looks alot like Jx.

At the turn I think I have most of the Tx that he can have in his range in my assigned range.

I mean maybe there are alot of things in my answer that were wrong or I was right for the wrong reasons.

I dunno but I was not suprise to see Tx appear when we get to showdown.

Can you clarify - how I was wrong?

sorry, I think villain is almost never semibluffing with that turn size and your range includes a number of semibluffs

100NL 6M - I find can be spewey with air bluffs - but really I am not seeing Jx always raising I do not think they are always aggressive with like J9 or JT in this spot. I assume I am just wrong on this.

What you seem to be saying is that on boards like this:
Regulars only ever just bluff the flop then give up in position?
Is that where I am wrong?

Can both be true where they play Jx quite strongly on dry boards but always give up on air bluffs?

I assume that a large portion of their flop raising ranges are air and that they call with Jx most of the time.

Time Link to 00:25:06

Thanks again for the great series guys, so much great thought process in these hands.

I just wanted to point out that if we do the math for this call given the range you plug into pokerstove, we have -EV of ~$5. So, even with QT as 1/4 of his range we're still losing money.

Thanks again for the great series guys, so much great thought process in these hands.

I just wanted to point out that if we do the math for this call given the range you plug into pokerstove, we have -EV of ~$5. So, even with QT as 1/4 of his range we're still losing money.

ty for doing the math

100NL

Time Link to 00:08:26

shortly @ the quiz from vid 2:

He has only JJ in hisrange when
-either tom is opening from UTG a decent amount (17%+) with combination that tom has a huge leak by rarely (even in this spot) folding to 3bets -> then he could 3bet/fold pre fior Value vs. Tom`s callingrange
- or he is bad and unthinking + do not plan well.

When these 2 points are not the case, imo he has almost never JJ here and only air (AK, bluff3bets with for instance small suited Aces).
-> hence my betsize would be even mire ridiciolous than yours , something between 10-15$, to increase a litte bit the probability of curiositycalls, tiltcalls and spazz - not too mention that the probability for this reactions is still not too high...

Time Link to 00:20:03

I think call on river is ok, but I think it is closer - reason: I also see like jk3a lots of 5x-combos in his turncheckback-range + idk, but many fishes sre punding on weakness on the turn and would just bet their FDs when you check OOP.

The thought with the timeing (quick actions could induce something) is great^^

Time Link to 00:33:00

Nice thoughts:

I agree that call Turn - fold river is possible here, though it is close.
But ok, odds are not bad + our perceived range includes also hands like 9x and some floats ourselves, so he could 2ndbarell here in fact as a bluff with some potEQ (backdoorFDs, KQ, T8s....)

2 general questions:
1.) Are we on the turn in your opinion at the top of our possible range here , or more at the middle? (99, sometimes JJ, J9s and sometimes trapped QQ+, we could also have from time to time).

2.) When you call here turn as a bluffcatcher, with the intention o confident fodl river, I guess we also had to call then for instance, 9x (b/c we not assume that he would 2ndbarell so large a weaker Jx-hand)?
And is here KJ on the turn better than AJ or worse to call turn - fold river?
I mean, on the one side KJ for instance reduce the likelihood that he hold a possible semibluff with let`s say KTs, KQ.
On the other side, he we then should have more EQ on the turn (less lkely that he improves on river with mentioned hands).

note: Another great part - just wonderful, fantastic series.
Abd thank you exspecially very much that you answering so patient to all my and tohers questions

Nice thoughts:

I agree that call Turn - fold river is possible here, though it is close.
But ok, odds are not bad + our perceived range includes also hands like 9x and some floats ourselves, so he could 2ndbarell here in fact as a bluff with some potEQ (backdoorFDs, KQ, T8s....)

2 general questions:
1.) Are we on the turn in your opinion at the top of our possible range here , or more at the middle? (99, sometimes JJ, J9s and sometimes trapped QQ+, we could also have from time to time).

2.) When you call here turn as a bluffcatcher, with the intention o confident fodl river, I guess we also had to call then for instance, 9x (b/c we not assume that he would 2ndbarell so large a weaker Jx-hand)?
And is here KJ on the turn better than AJ or worse to call turn - fold river?
I mean, on the one side KJ for instance reduce the likelihood that he hold a possible semibluff with let`s say KTs, KQ.
On the other side, he we then should have more EQ on the turn (less lkely that he improves on river with mentioned hands).

note: Another great part - just wonderful, fantastic series.
Abd thank you exspecially very much that you answering so patient to all my and tohers questions

def not top of range

KJ/AJ very similar to me, diff than 9x

def not top of range

KJ/AJ very similar to me, diff than 9x

Ok, thank you^^

What would be top of your range here? (only sets and trapped QQ+, I guess + J9s)?

and I guess my tgoughts why KJ could be maybe here different from AJ is not so important here?

Time Link to 00:47:04

You said that when you would expect here a high Blufffreq. of Villain, you would prefer call Flop - Call AI Turn.
Did you maybe not notice the SPR?
When you call here only on the flop, Villain will only have about 1/3-Potsize left on turn - hence can we rly expect him to continue a bluff on turn?
When not, then Shove flop would be theoretically even vs. air better b/c you can make some PotEQ of Vilalin folding...

You said that when you would expect here a high Blufffreq. of Villain, you would prefer call Flop - Call AI Turn.
Did you maybe not notice the SPR?
When you call here only on the flop, Villain will only have about 1/3-Potsize left on turn - hence can we rly expect him to continue a bluff on turn?
When not, then Shove flop would be theoretically even vs. air better b/c you can make some PotEQ of Vilalin folding...

it's a bit closer to 1/2 pot if my math is good, but yes, they can/will bluff for that small

it's a bit closer to 1/2 pot if my math is good, but yes, they can/will bluff for that small

he would have 57$ left in a 153$-Pot - but all right, when you think he can continue bluffing, then of course call flop is better.

Thx so far

he would have 57$ left in a 153$-Pot - but all right, when you think he can continue bluffing, then of course call flop is better.

Thx so far

math no good you're right

math no good you're right

Oh, ok - so shove flop, I guess when you decide to continue?

and once again, rly thank you very much for all your answers, I rly appreciate it

Time Link to 00:14:47

table 4: isn't it better to check preflop with 8ts?

Time Link to 00:25:27

again table 4: isn't it better to check preflop with 8ts?

Time Link to 00:30:12

You've got green marks on a lot of players. What does this mean for you? I see it a lot in combination with a fish but also with a lot of 20/18 tags etc.

Time Link to 00:41:48

The villain is a passive player, so not very strange that he checked the set of 7's on the turn. But my point is, when you were analyzing his range on the river, your opinion was that he would check/raise flops with KQh etc a lot of the times. I think when a player looks this tight (20/14, 4% 3-bet) its more likely that he would check/call, check/call with big draws instead of raising. So I think it's good to put that sort of hands in his range. When he bet's this big, I fold here easily because I think it narrows his range a lot, but it was just a thing I wanted to say.

table 4: isn't it better to check preflop with 8ts?

i think you make more money raising, very common leak I see all the time

again table 4: isn't it better to check preflop with 8ts?

this one is closer with the ep limp but still likely more profitable than check

You've got green marks on a lot of players. What does this mean for you? I see it a lot in combination with a fish but also with a lot of 20/18 tags etc.

i believe those are indicators of where tom has notes. i also use the color codes to denote player types

The villain is a passive player, so not very strange that he checked the set of 7's on the turn. But my point is, when you were analyzing his range on the river, your opinion was that he would check/raise flops with KQh etc a lot of the times. I think when a player looks this tight (20/14, 4% 3-bet) its more likely that he would check/call, check/call with big draws instead of raising. So I think it's good to put that sort of hands in his range. When he bet's this big, I fold here easily because I think it narrows his range a lot, but it was just a thing I wanted to say.

obv he c/r big draws some %, not always or never