I think folding here is a huge mistake since he is not going to coldcall with 4% of the top of his range(99+,AQs+,AK)assuming he s a good TAG but 4% of his bottom range(77-JJ,ATo-AJo,A9s,KQ,QTs+).That s give us 76% equity.I don t think he s going to coldcall QQ+,AK(VPIP11,PFR7).I m just starting to learn NL so if I m wrong just give the reasons so I can learn something.Great series,love every second of it!!!
Thanks!!
This range that you have for villain's initial cold-calling range OOP is a bit loose, imo. I think that QTs, A9s, ATo, are just going to be folds for this guy. (Remember that for most players, their range for calling OOP is tighter than calling IP, and if this guy was calling these kinds of hands he'd be running a lot loose than 11/7.
Also, while some of those hands ARE in his cold-calling range, we have to assume that he's just going to call the flop with those hands some of the time. As I said in the video, I think it's a very thin spot, as as it turned out, we were in one of the best cases we could hope for, and it was STILL very close. At the table, I'd get in here, no sweat and just call it a cooler if he had AK or sucked out on me, but I also know that if I thought it'd tilt me, I'd end the session otherwise (and most of the time, I'd happily get in and think nothing of losing the stack).
If a student showed me this hand and had folded on the flop, I'd probably initially be upset, weird out the ranges, talk to the student, and if they told me that they had to play a long session and they thought losing this pot would tilt them, I'd say it was a good decision (provided folding didn't make them tilt also!) lol.