---

Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by FoxwoodsFiend (Mid Stakes)

Was well worth waiting for. Great discussion as always.

[Edit]
Only 4 stars though for the naked HH's. At least clean them up a bit next time please (like adding potsizes for every street instead of roughly calculating them on the fly)

i could have listened to you go on about the 88 hand for hours.

i found that a really complex spot.

nice vid.

88 Hand

19/11 opening JT UTG? I would put him on AK,KQ more often.

i could have listened to you go on about the 88 hand for hours.

i found that a really complex spot.

nice vid.

Yeah I'm going to watch this one a second time to re-absorb that. Pretty awesome IMO.

88 Hand

19/11 opening JT UTG? I would put him on AK,KQ more often.

I was thinking the same, but it's questionable how often he's going to try to ship in 200bb with these holdings if he's this tight. I'd expect most 100nl regs to take a more passive route without some meta game. I think set over set is pretty probable. JT should definitely not be much of a consideration, as like you say it should most likely have to be JT suited at best.

I'm also surprised there isn't more consideration given to him having a semi bluff (pair + FD) considering there were two FD's up on the board iirc.

88 Hand

19/11 opening JT UTG? I would put him on AK,KQ more often.

after only 80 hands you can't be entirely positive about his true opening range, but TJs is the exact type of hand that players who strike you as passive preflop show up with as the pfr. also, once he check/raises the turn 200 bbs deep that's A LOT of evidence that he's nutted (especially if he hasn't been getting to showdown much) and should make one reassess his read that he doesn't raise TJ utg.

also, if you think he's too tight to open TJ utg, then he's almost definitely not the type of player to put in 200 bbs with two pair (especially not mid two pair), at least not by reopening the betting. bad players that can't get away from two pair in this spot generally can't fold their hand when facing a raise: they don't often check/raise instead.

I'm also surprised there isn't more consideration given to him having a semi bluff (pair + FD) considering there were two FD's up on the board iirc.

well once he check/calls flop it's hard to see what turn flush draws he could have picked up unless he check-called KdJd, but there aren't many combos of Kdxd that would check/call the flop (if there are any, i'm not sure there are) and those now have showdown value and don't often get turned into bluffs by passive players. as for a flopped flush draw, it seems like that would be an auto-c-bet from this guy and even if it isn't it's still way too optimistic to hope that this passive, non-showdown player is check/calling and then check/raising a flopped flush draw as the pfr. that's just not a line you see very often.

also, if you think he can have a pair plus flush-draw here, why don't you think he can have TJs? seems like raising a semi-bluffing hand UTG would be entirely consistent with him raising TJs as well.

I think you messed up the stove on the KQdd hand (might actually be a stove bug, I've had the %ages not make sense given the input before).

Board: Ad 5d Kc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.837% 35.84% 00.00% 22329 0.00 { KdQd }
Hand 1: 52.896% 52.47% 00.43% 32690 268.00 { 55, A5s, JdTd }
Hand 2: 11.267% 10.84% 00.43% 6752 268.00 { AJs, AJo }

(In the video it says 37/28/34 .. which is the preflop equities without the flop

88 hand:

I've played a lot of 100NL, and I think this villain could very well have AK here. In fact I'd say it's his most likely holding. His thinking is that he's pot controlling on the flop but when he hits top two on the turn he just wants to stack AQ and protect against flush draws.

Really don't think you had any point at all in the KQ hand. Our equity is at its highest on the flop and shipping it in also hinders us from making a mistake on later streets (usually outweghing any minor extra mistake an opponent might make). Not shipping it in is also bad for metagame, imo. Do you call a set here?

Otherwise, as usual, solid.

In the 88 hand the read of the opponent was that he was passive. But still he has an aggression of 4? (you actually say 8 first in the beginning of the video but later change it to 4 wich sounds more likely). We don't have many hands on him but I guess he can't play that passive if his aggression is 4?
And wouldn't he cbet JT if he has a double gutshot? The most likely reason for him not to in my view is that he actually don't see the double gutshot or that he thinks he is up against to many opponents to cbet(3).
Thanks for a fantastic serie of videos!

I'm not really sure about 88 hand. I'd be surprised to see JT there. I think AA is way more likely. But its 100nl and we have a set. People just spazz out all over the place without any reason or sign of thought. They just see a squirell and go "Oh, look - a squirrel! I raise!". Not to mention that I can't see 19/11/4 to be passive. Yes, the numbers may be way off, but the read is clearly off.

Same with KK pretty much. If ace does not come, a 40VPIP puts you on AK and calls with 22. If ace comes, he puts himself on quad sixes, closes eyes and calls for pot odds anyway. Its just a matter of him having a pair really. Or any draw for that matter. Yes, at 100nl a gutter counts. Pot commitment is big thing

In AJ hand.. does it also mean that you are not cbetting QQ-AA here?

The stove calcs in the KQd were all wrong, the hands you inputted were being evaluated preflop.

I'm with some others on the 88. If you compute his range, you should only include JTs, not all the JT, but you should also include AK, which is a bigger part of his range than one might expect. AA and QQ are definitely a possibility as well.

He could have AQ as well, 19/11/7 is not that nitty, these games playes pretty aggro these days.

He could have AQ as well, 19/11/7 is not that nitty, these games plays pretty aggro these days.

also: The KK hand was against a 40/25 not a 40/15. May change your opinion?

Bumping an old thread...

at around 31:20 you calculate that getting overcalled by AJ (= we don't raise on the flop) decreases our equity, but actually it doesn't really. Most of the decreased equity come from Player #1's range being more weighted to 55 if someone else has AJ...

But if someone has AJ, the effect is exactly the same to P1s range even if we make him fold. So whether AJ overcalls or not, doesn't actually effect our equity nearly as drastically as your calculations suggest. It's not like our flatcall increases the probability of player behind having an ace in his hand.

Yeah sure, AJ can make something like runner straight/flush or runnerboat, but it also reduces the change of board pairing...

Nothing to add other than you really really really need to make more vids. The analysis is always top-notch and well worded, and typically gets me thinking more than others.

Cheers