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Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by WiltOnTilt (Micro/Small Stakes)

Woo!

Timestamp: 38:57

Maybe one of you guys could tackle that math problem

Aaron,

you helped me a lot in understanding poker math. First through your amazing series and then via PM when I didn't quite understand a few concepts, so I'll answer your call in this video by "tackling that math problem"

If his range is sets and flushes (would a tighter guy flat 33 to a 3bet or would he minraise the BTN in the first place?) we're obviously in very bad shape:

Board: Ks 3s Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.465% 34.46% 00.00% 3412 0.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 65.535% 65.54% 00.00% 6488 0.00 { KK, TT, 33, QsJs }

I've only included QJss into a tight 50NL regular's range as I really don't see him flatting more hands to a 3bet, however if he's a DC member and has watched Foxwoodsfiends "Movin' On Up" series in which he advocates minraising the BTN to be able to flat more 3bets, he might actually have more SC type hands in his range. But since this range already has us in pretty bad shape, let's go with this one first:

Current pot: $8.50

Our bet: $7

Villains raise: $25.50

Total pot: 25.5 + 7 + 8.5 = 41 (for convenience sake let's forget about rake here)

A shove costs us $40.50

EV calc vs above range:

1.55 = 0.34465 * 81.5 - 0.65535 * 40.5

So against this range we have a breakeven shove (slightly losing even due to rake)

Let's give him a more reasonable range which excludes 33 but includes QQ and JJ each with one , the remaining AA combo and 2 more made flushes:

Board: Ks 3s Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.670% 55.68% 01.99% 8820 315.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 42.330% 40.34% 01.99% 6390 315.00 { KK+, QcQs, QdQs, QhQs, JcJs, JdJs, JhJs, TT, QsJs, 9s8s, 8s7s }

29.4 = 0.5568 * 81.5 - 0.4034 * 40.5

So against this range we're clearly winning.

Point in this hand is that even if we don't have the best hand we always have the best draw so we're never entirely dead. I probably would get this in vs anyone on the flop (100BB deep that is)

Lastly let's examine our EV vs villains exact holding:

Board: Ks 3s Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.818% 51.82% 00.00% 513 0.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 48.182% 48.18% 00.00% 477 0.00 { KdTh }

22.72 = 0.51818 * 81.5 - 0.48182 * 40.5

So hero's shove gained him $22.72 on average vs villains exact hand.

Sugar Nut

Like the format much more than live play as you have the ability to pick out really tough spots. In live play there much more standard spots..
Regarding the AKs hand at around ~20:
Alex gets asked why villain most likely hasn't a strong hand like a twopair+ which was that he most likely would protect his hand.
But isn't that part of the micro's nature that opponents are in fact not protecting their hand (for several reasons) and thus we have to count also with these hands? Further you say that your opponent puts you on a strong hand when you're cbetting into a wet board... So basicially you assume that villain puts you on a strong hand because he knows that you know that the board hits a ton of his range and that he's loose enough to call in this spot? Isn't that too deep for the micros?
I mean im playing poker for several months now and even I wasn't thinking that far...? This could lead to some serious misreads imo...

Further you say that your opponent puts you on a strong hand when you're cbetting into a wet board... So basicially you assume that villain puts you on a strong hand because he knows that you know that the board hits a ton of his range and that he's loose enough to call in this spot? Isn't that too deep for the micros?

not imo

Timestamp 41:00

If you wanna play this hand, at least 3bet it

3betting sucks as much as calling does imo. We've got a 23BB and an 18BB stack yet to act. Against both of these stacks a 3bet commits ourselves to calling a shove. This is 100% fold pre!

What did villain have in this hand? You say 2 overs and a double gutty, which would be KJ, but then you say spades aswell, so did he actually have KJ?

The TT hand (about 60:00)

What's our plan for the river if it gets checked through

On a ?

On a non, not pairing the board?

Remember, we most likely will be 3way to the river if we check this turn and we're still sandwiched.

What's our plan if CO bets, and...

... BB calls?

... BB raises?

... BB folds?

I think bet/calling isn't as bad as it seems. It's a bit similar to the AA hand before. We're never dead and there are hands in his range (not many, though) that we still crush. No stats (much less reads) were provided in this hand, which is sad, but just from watching BB's line I'd guess he's pretty bad and could show up with 2pair here some of the time (QT/Q9 kinda hands, even T9/T7 which is now aswell scared by the board texture).

Done watching now. Great video as always, Alex and Aaron. Only 4 stars from me, though because on a few hands no reads were provided (watch Joe's "Late Night Coaching" series. It's always the first question he asks, before beginning analysis of a hand) and a few hands were quite standard imo.

Sugar Nut

not imo

these were the kinds of answers i was expecting..

I actually liked this format, you got pretty deep analysis and I personally got a lot from this vid.
I hope alex moves up soon so we can see some baller progress

Please, don't show the outcomes (turn, river) after shipping it in on the flop (or why not even preflop). It doesn't have any real value except for "OMGZ he runs, liek, so bad!". Kinda makes it seem like bad beat whine and also can skew somebody's opinion.

Other than that, great episode, thanks! Looking forward to the rest of the season. I think both formats (live sweat session and post-hand analysis) definitely have their place, and are good to have. If it's only post-hand analysis it can become a bit dull and not that connected to the real game, since you don't know the circumstances or game flow as intuitively, but then again in live sweat sessions you obviously can't talk about a hand for 10 minutes. In my opinion live play videos are more just about how you should play, and these handreplayer ones about really convincing you why you should play that way.

once again another great vid. I personally like this format more just to get the full meat of analysis, and although you do lose some of the game dynamic, i think at this level thinking more objectively in-depth about hands and interesting spots is more beneficial. gl alex on your rise up the ladder!

I like this format, and I also like watching live play. They are complements. "Variance" is probably higher when recording live play, as some sessions without much action are not that great to watch. Maybe the best thing for live play is to record four sessions and post two of them at DC (don't know if you do this already). Also there is a third format that you could consider: a live session in which you stop once or twice to squeeze in some deep analysis.

The AQ hand is usually how I play this hand.

Going through it though can we not make a fold on the river?

His bet on teh river is basically {nuts or nothing}, and Im really unsure whether this is AJ/bluff 35% of the time of more......(could understand if this guy was a LAG or maniac but this is a TAG - I just dont see it often enough)

Thoughts Aaron?

Please, don't show the outcomes (turn, river) after shipping it in on the flop (or why not even preflop). It doesn't have any real value except for "OMGZ he runs, liek, so bad!". Kinda makes it seem like bad beat whine and also can skew somebody's opinion.

ok, i suppose i can just take out the turn and river and just try to show what villain actually had in future episodes... although come to think of it, i'm not sure if that chopped up hand history will jive with the HH replayer. I'll try it out... i guess it didn't occur to me that people would care about that, but you're right it really doesn't add much to the discussion to show him getting sucked out on.

Other than that, great episode, thanks! Looking forward to the rest of the season. I think both formats (live sweat session and post-hand analysis) definitely have their place, and are good to have. If it's only post-hand analysis it can become a bit dull and not that connected to the real game, since you don't know the circumstances or game flow as intuitively, but then again in live sweat sessions you obviously can't talk about a hand for 10 minutes. In my opinion live play videos are more just about how you should play, and these handreplayer ones about really convincing you why you should play that way.

thanks for the nice comments and opinions on live vs hh replayer vids. we'll try to incorporate more of both for the rest of the season.

The AQ hand is usually how I play this hand.

Going through it though can we not make a fold on the river?

His bet on teh river is basically {nuts or nothing}, and Im really unsure whether this is AJ/bluff 35% of the time of more......(could understand if this guy was a LAG or maniac but this is a TAG - I just dont see it often enough)

Thoughts Aaron?

yea it's 32%, but i dont think we can fold w/o a better read. not saying we're thrilled about calling, but we could be chopping the pot, he could have AJ, and maybe he's making a thin value bet w/ AK (although agree unlikely because of bet size, which is more skewed to big hands and bluffs)

This series, along with "From the Ground Up", make the best combination of series I can imagine for new players. Great Job.

In the first hand, How would you play this if you were the player on the btn, holding A9dd or maybe 9Tdd against the same raises? This is the kind of spot in which I seem to get my head handed to me really often.

Thanks for the great series,

Steve

@Tubasteves "bread @ butter" play:

Just to clarify, you're just doing this after being flat-called on drawy flops, right?

1) So if we get flat-called on a dry J62r flop for instance, this type of play doesn't really apply. If it does, what factors (what hand you need, opponent, etc) are you looking for to ship it in or are you often just giving up at this point.

2) Do you need the FD/SD to ship it in on the Turn after cbetting and getting called on drawy flops? How are you playing the Turn in this situation if you just have something like a pair below TP and did cbet the flop? I guess what I'm asking is what hands should be in the bottom on our range for making this play on the Turn?

@ 33:00 AA on monotone flop

One "What if" that didn't get mentioned was what if we have the AdAc instead of the As. How would you proceed vs a loose player or a tight player?

Thanks for what you do TS, all your vids have helped me noticeably in my play and definitely in the results.

wait, what about tubasteve? i guess i need to watch this ASAP!

thanks for the nice comments and opinions on live vs hh replayer vids. we'll try to incorporate more of both for the rest of the season.

I like seeing the whole hand. I don't feel as if you guys are whining about the hand or anything. You do a great job on teaching people how to think through hands. I just watched all your mathematic episodes and I enjoy watching you work with whiteheatsyd.

I feel like i graduated a level up from watching about 5-6 hours of all your video's this weekend. Great job on your work! It really shows you care and work hard.

This series, along with "From the Ground Up", make the best combination of series I can imagine for new players. Great Job.

tytytytyty

i also agree this series is really good.

xerocat: turns out this is wilt on tilts video, so he gets props on this one not me!

Just giving my feedback that I really liked this format. Would still like to see live play also though, maybe alternate between episodes or something? Also I think it's fine to show results and see no problem if you keep doing so..

Thanks guys for taking the time to talk about Alex's downswing and dealing with.

Keep up the good work guys!

I really am enjoying the series. It's nice to see a blend of hand histories and live play whether done on different sessions or not. I also like that you guys are sharing a bad run, because too many series just show the winners. Finally, I really like the scenario analysis, hand reading and what Whiteheatsyd is thinking relative to Wiltontilt.

Fairly new member and first time poster.

Haha, whoops. I'm frequently back and forth watching series from both you guys so I might have slipped Props goes to both, but the question goes to WiltOnTilt. Sry!

Another nice vid guys. Aaron. I liked how you turned the AsKs, into an excellent hand reading exercise. What for you is most likely a simple question "what hands peel that flop?" is not clear cut for those of us in the nursery :-)) Even Heat gave an answer that surprised you. I can only speak for myself but, breaking down a villains hand range in the heat of the moment can become quite difficult when I narrow my focus to something like " 3bet pot, me have NFD + overs = get it in." Hearing you ask a simple question like that serves as a great reminder about what to consider during play and post analysis.

Keep up the good work guys and thanks!!!!

@Tubasteves "bread @ butter" play:

Just to clarify, you're just doing this after being flat-called on drawy flops, right?

1) So if we get flat-called on a dry J62r flop for instance, this type of play doesn't really apply. If it does, what factors (what hand you need, opponent, etc) are you looking for to ship it in or are you often just giving up at this point.

I will answer this as best I can, Aaron can you make sure I am along the right lines.

1) This doesn't apply on a dry flop, as the amount of hands that he could float us on is huge. If I shipped it on the turn, I wouldn't be suprised if he had slow played a set, AJ, JJ, QQ etc etc. As for giving up, it would depend on how the turn helps.

2) Do you need the FD/SD to ship it in on the Turn after cbetting and getting called on drawy flops? How are you playing the Turn in this situation if you just have something like a pair below TP and did cbet the flop? I guess what I'm asking is what hands should be in the bottom on our range for making this play on the Turn?

2) It certaintly helps if you have some outs, as at least you have some equity in the pot, if they call you with something random. I prefer making the play on a FD board than a SD, as a lot of players miss the SD as it most of the time well hidden. As for range, I think what their range is more important than ours, as we can play the hands with bluffs. You really need consider what range of theirs can call the flop and call a turn all in? You are really looking for them to fold the turn.

Aaron is that correct?

what is the name if the hand replayer used again?

popopop!

I like the fact that you did an episode using the hand replayer. I also like it when you do the live episodes. Perhaps if you could alternate between live and hand replayer, that would be good. Thanks again for the awesome quality.

All - sorry it took me a while to get back to some of these questions. Thanks for everyone's really kind words, it makes all the hours put into making the DC content worth it!

Sugar Nut -- thanks for posting the math. good stuff.

Cobby --

Like the format much more than live play as you have the ability to pick out really tough spots. In live play there much more standard spots..
Regarding the AKs hand at around ~20:
Alex gets asked why villain most likely hasn't a strong hand like a twopair+ which was that he most likely would protect his hand.
But isn't that part of the micro's nature that opponents are in fact not protecting their hand (for several reasons) and thus we have to count also with these hands?

it's true that to some degree people don't protect their hands as much at the lower stakes and like to slowplay etc, however through this conversation we were talking about playing against a standard tag. I think it's safe to say most standard tags, (guys who are working hard on their game, watching videos, trying to move up the ranks and think about what's going on), would react how I described. Perhaps at the mid and high stakes, where I do most of my playing and coaching, this play will have a bit higher success rate because of some of the reasons you state, however I still think it's a viable play

at the small stakes. In other words, I think even if their frequency for slowplaying is higher here, we can still show a profit with this play, but as everything in poker, know your opponent and pick your spots. don't try this vs a 41/2 guy etc.

Further you say that your opponent puts you on a strong hand when you're cbetting into a wet board... So basicially you assume that villain puts you on a strong hand because he knows that you know that the board hits a ton of his range and that he's loose enough to call in this spot? Isn't that too deep for the micros?
I mean im playing poker for several months now and even I wasn't thinking that far...? This could lead to some serious misreads imo...

again, if you're correct here, it could lead to a lower success rate at these stakes, but once you move up you'll find it is definitely a viable play. try it out and report back and see how things go. just make sure to target people you view as "good/solid", like your fellow Ducklings :-)

Sugar Nut --

Timestamp 41:00

If you wanna play this hand, at least 3bet it



3betting sucks as much as calling does imo. We've got a 23BB and an 18BB stack yet to act. Against both of these stacks a 3bet commits ourselves to calling a shove. This is 100% fold pre!

What did villain have in this hand? You say 2 overs and a double gutty, which would be KJ, but then you say spades aswell, so did he actually have KJ?

Sorry that wasn't clear. He did have the KJ of spades. So he played his draw pretty tricksy by not cbetting the flop (and presumably going for a checkraise). I think both players were kind of FPS'ing (fancy play syndrome) a bit in this hand which made the postflop play pretty goofy.

3betting, as a standard, sucks -- that is true. As a mix up it can be ok vs opponents who are positionally aware yet also open lots of hands. This opponent was 25/22 and opening UTG. Against a guy playing 22% of his hands preflop for a raise, he will generally have a very wide opening range UTG, stuff like most broadway hands, all pairs, and lots of suited connectors and Ax hands. Given that we 3bet UTG+1 he "should" be giving us respect for a big hand here given that he is UTG... so _IF_ he's folding every part of that range except for like AQ+ and decent pairs, we should be able to show a profit with a 3bet here, until he realizes we 3bet him light and now re-adjusts. Again, it's a spot where we have to know our opponent if we're going to play this hand, and we have to be good at playing in 3bet pots to do this, but I think as a curveball play we can work this in sometimes under the right circumstances. Would we do this vs a 40/30 who can never fold? no. Would we do this vs an 18/13 who has a super tight UTG range? no. Would we do this vs someone who has already seen us make a play like this? no. So you can see what I mean... the circumstance has to be set up well to make this play, otherwise you're absolutely correct folding is the standard option.

The TT hand (about 60:00)

What's our plan for the river if it gets checked through

On a club?

On a non club, not pairing the board?

Remember, we most likely will be 3way to the river if we check this turn and we're still sandwiched.

What's our plan if CO bets, and...

... BB calls?

... BB raises?

... BB folds?

If the turn checks through and the river is a club we consider a c/c vs the button (check bet size/timing/pot odds) but fold if the BB leads. If we check the river and Co bets and BB raises then we have an easy fold. If the board pairs and the BB leads we raise, if he checks we bet.

Bet/calling the turn isn't horrible but it's not great either, i strongly disagree that people are checkraising this turn with 2pair on that card, even donkeys. I think almost everyone in BB's shoes on the flop with 2pair would checkraise there, so the 9 would have to be giving him 2pair with either Q9 or T9 or 79 and it seems weird for him to peel 9T or 79 in a 3 way draw heavy flop... so even if he is capable of checkraising 2pair there on the turn, basically the only hand is Q9, which i still think they either lead it to "find out where they stand" or they check and call it.

rigged4dive --

In the first hand, How would you play this if you were the player on the btn, holding A9dd or maybe 9Tdd against the same raises? This is the kind of spot in which I seem to get my head handed to me really often.

preflop i'm not usually playing A9dd in that spot for a call (usually fold/3bet), but let's say I did. I think in general we're calling the flop and calling the turn and folding the river (well except in the case of 9T that made 2pair). I think the frequency for the regulars to be 3 barreling in a spot like this is way less often than it should be. Also a lot of the tag regs would be 2 barreling the turn with A-big because of the backdoor wheel draw and their overs, so i don't think we can get away on this turn, but I think on the river we can safely fold vs most players at these stakes. Take a look at their 2barrel cbet% and their 2barrel% and use that to help you make a decision. As you move into the mid stakes this spot becomes a lot tougher and we're likely calling down vs a lot of the good regs... at these stakes people just aren't that aggressive in spots like these (to their detriment).

xerocat --

@Tubasteves "bread @ butter" play:

*ouch* :-(

I guess if I have to be mistaken for someone I can't complain about being mistaken for steve as he's a pretty cool cat.

Just to clarify, you're just doing this after being flat-called on drawy flops, right?

yes

1) So if we get flat-called on a dry J62r flop for instance, this type of play doesn't really apply. If it does, what factors (what hand you need, opponent, etc) are you looking for to ship it in or are you often just giving up at this point.

on these types of boards, with my entire range, i'm generally looking to make smaller flop bets and then when i'm firing 2 barrels it will also be a smaller turn bet. the problem with this board is that it's much easier for him to flat call many stronger hands than it is on the J9s6s or similar board texture. so when they flat call us on a J62r we cannot narrow their range down as narrowly (is narrowly a word? lol)

2) Do you need the FD/SD to ship it in on the Turn after cbetting and getting called on drawy flops? How are you playing the Turn in this situation if you just have something like a pair below TP and did cbet the flop? I guess what I'm asking is what hands should be in the bottom on our range for making this play on the Turn?

no i don't, i think because we can narrow his range down so much on these boards, and because almost all of those narrowed hands cannot stand the heat for a turn shove, i don't need extra outs to make this play profitable imo. having extra outs is always a good thing, though. i think vs a huge number of tag regs, the bet and shove with any 2 is profitable in these types of spots as they play the flop too straight forward on these board textures. vs more tricky tough opponents capable of a lot of tricksiness or against bad players who can slowplay too much, we either need to c/f the flop and not make this play with air to begin with or we need to not barrel the turn w/o some decent outs (like at least 2 overs, preferably some sort of 8+ out draw)

@ 33:00 AA on monotone flop

One "What if" that didn't get mentioned was what if we have the AdAc instead of the As. How would you proceed vs a loose player or a tight player?

vs a loose player i'm almost always going to be calling and waiting for a safe turn before sticking the money in (call flop, open shove turn for half pot on blank). i think stuff like KQhh is not raising this flop very often, so i think it's mostly going to be some sort of big draw or 2pair+, in which case if we get it in on the flop in a fairly small pot, we're going to be flipping or crushed, whereas at least if we wait for a safe turn we can get the money in almost equally crushed vs a set but oru equity vs the draws is much better.

vs a tight player I just fold the flop.

Thanks for what you do TS, all your vids have helped me noticeably in my play and definitely in the results.

tubasteve is the man! so much so that he'll be making a guest appearance next week :-)

tubasteve is the man! so much so that he'll be making a guest appearance next week :-)

You have spoilt the surprise!

whack em!

Yeah, sorry about the mistaken identity. Both of you guys have great series that I'm constantly back and forth watching. The praise is most def. to both! Thanks for taking the time to answer in detail.

ehm.. i'm getting an error when i try to download the mp4 version.. the wmv version works, but when i click on the mp4 link i get a weird firefox error which says that the xml file doesn't have a stylesheet and some source code follows.. any help?

update: with chrome i either get a 404 or this error "NoSuchKeyThe specified key does not exist.video_files/1661/Real_20Life_20Micro_20No_20Limit_20Grinder_20-_20Episode_204.mp4756F7FBA19EBA475a/+ckaNL/5NHuRSsNQO/OfzgGzzRPOqRa1mmIMiPf+DPmkAFwNkrVI5KWpUdaT+T"

ehm.. i'm getting an error when i try to download the mp4 version.. the wmv version works, but when i click on the mp4 link i get a weird firefox error which says that the xml file doesn't have a stylesheet and some source code follows.. any help?

Don't know if it was just a temporary error as I've been gone all day, but I can download the MP4s version fine now.

Rob

it still doesn't work for me. i'm from europe though, you have different fileservers for the us and the old continent right?

Dunno if anyone stil reads the forum for this video, but I just watched it and had a quick question. On the AKs hand: Lets say, instead of AKs we had TT. What would be our line against that villian? Do we lead out for value, and if we do, what do we do if he shoves like in the vid? Do we check and re-evaluate? I know you covered hands that hit that flop and hands that whiff (ie AKs of a different suit) but what about hands in the grey area (mainly TT)?

Thoughts?

Just started watching this series, and I think this is the best part of it !

I'm very sorry to ask, but in the math problem (second reply in this tree), what number is that 81,5? Thanks a lot. Great video, great series so far!

Time Link to 00:58:44

What if we check, Georginho checks behind and the river is a not a club and the board doesn't pair up?

What bet from the BB do we call? Or do we always fold if the BB bets the river since it's possible that Georginho goes over the top?
What is the BB checks, do we bet there? or do we still check because Georginho could make a bet?

Time Link to 00:25:56

He guys, if villain called the flop c-bet in this hand and the turn bricked are we shoving the turn?

@ 32:30 You say we can also do this with more speculative hands. What sort of hands do you mean? Smaller flush draws? Overs like AKo? Or something else?

@ 32:30 You say we can also do this with more speculative hands. What sort of hands do you mean? Smaller flush draws? Overs like AKo? Or something else?

Had to relisten to a bit of this since it's been 3 years since I made the vid ... but my general point in this hand is that people's flat calling range here is often pretty face up, and when it's face up and capped, you have the opportunity to launch some multistreet bluffs (against most opponents -- ie those who won't necessarily realize their flatting range is being exploited because it's so weak), so hands like gutshots and overcards would be reasonable to start these bluffs with, you don't need a massive equity draw like we have.

Time Link to 00:56:55

i tend to see a lot of over bet Shoves w/the nuts and as bluffs at these stakes.(25-50nl)Just curious on what you think would be the optimal play if the player were to Over bet shove the river as opposed to the pot sized bet he made.What would be your train of thought if villain were to make that kind of nonstandard bet.
Great video too BTW.Thanks for taking the time to answer.

i tend to see a lot of over bet Shoves w/the nuts and as bluffs at these stakes.(25-50nl)Just curious on what you think would be the optimal play if the player were to Over bet shove the river as opposed to the pot sized bet he made.What would be your train of thought if villain were to make that kind of nonstandard bet.
Great video too BTW.Thanks for taking the time to answer.

A river shove would be quite tough/nasty here on that run out. Especialy if he thinks we might fast play AJ/AQ sometimes on earlier streets plus the 7 pairing reduces set combos for us as well. Given table positions, it's very reasonable that we might only flat AK pre, so there are very few hands that are excited to call an overbet here. Add that to the fact that once we call 2 streets, it looks very much like we have an ace here of some sort. So depending on if you think your opponent recognizes these things, I might have to call an overbet here. If he's just another mass tabling regular that probably isn't thinking too deeply, then probably I would fold to an overbet just becasue this board and table positions we can easily have TPTK or 2 pair and many people won't bluff into that type of range, although I do think this is a pretty good spot for it since all of these hands are just bluff catchers and he can still rep plenty of strong hands himself

Time Link to 00:58:09

what about a halfpot or slightly under half pot on the turn with TT if you're up against a single opponent? he'll prob tell you what he has and we can fold.

what about a halfpot or slightly under half pot on the turn with TT if you're up against a single opponent? he'll prob tell you what he has and we can fold.

reasonable, however no matter what we bet, we're going to be in a rough spot by either folding a ton of equity or calling it off potentially bad

Time Link to 01:07:39

Could someone explain to me in a bit more depth why we are not afraid of this Q turn card?

Thanks

Could someone explain to me in a bit more depth why we are not afraid of this Q turn card?

Thanks

It looks like a scary card for us but if you consider most of the hands that hit this turn can be discounted because of previous flop action. So for instance, J9, he probably only plays the suited hands (even if that) and there are only 2 combos of that since we have JJ. He may or may not raise J9 on the flop, probably less likely these days (in the video I think I said otherwise - but that was 4 years ago). Same with QJ, if he decides to peel this flop there are only 3 QJ suited hands left and sometimes he might use that hand as a flop raise instead of a flop call, fearing he could get barreled. 3 combos of QTs, if he plays all of them preflop.

If he had a hand like K J or A J we can discount those hands since they didn't raise the flop (not that they will always raise the flop, but they will sometimes).

If he was slowplaying something that was already beating us, then it's likely the Q gives us more equity.

So it's not that the Q is a total blank, it's not, but it isn't quite as scary as one might think by just looking at our hand and looking at the board.

When you compare the above to the number of ways we can still be beating hands like JT/KT/AT/99/etc then the situation isn't as horrible as it would first appear. The turn isn't a great card for us, but it's also not one where we should immediately be throwing in the towel.

That makes sense. Thanks WOT.