Thanks for reviewing my video.

I wanted to comment on a few things:

1. That short/mid stacked player bjp1000 had a button attempt-to-steal of something like 80+%, so I was 3-betting his button opens with any two cards.

2. I think I may have missed some value in the AK hand v. iowaswarm on K32ss. Although, I think there's little chance of playing a big pot there with the best of it. The only way it will happen is if I can give him some reason to think I'm making a move, or if I can make him think it's a good spot to make a move. At the time I figured a raise would rep a flushdraw more than anything else, and that he might overplay KQ/QQ/JJ.

3. In the hand where I had 99 7736cc facing the turn donk-shove, I still think it's a fold. I've played around w/ pokerstove and my equity appears to be < 17% against a range that has plenty of room for random monkey-play with flushdraws and a couple oddly played overpairs:

Board: 7h 7c 3c 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 16.958% 16.96% 00.00% 485 0.00 { 9c9s }
Hand 1: 83.042% 83.04% 00.00% 2375 0.00 { JJ-TT, 88-66, A7s, KcQc, K7s, QcJc, Q7s, JcTc, J7s, T7s, 97s, 87s, 74s+, 6c5c, 5c4c, A7o, 97o, 87o, 76o }

nice video, would still love to hear your thoughts on the AA hand though that came up at the end of the video!

that hand is better off forgotten.

also, not that it matters, but it's pronounced [bay-tis], as in fish food.

1. ok, my bad for noticing
2. against 90 or 95% of players, I think usually raising is best. I think nittier players fold pocket pairs earlier than we realize.
3. very interesting. I wasn't thinking about all the 7x hands he's capable of playing preflop. thanks for posting this.

I think the AA hand is super interesting and I'm still thinking about it like 3 weeks after I recorded it. I had like 13 minutes of audio on it that got cut off. I plan on going over that in a future video this season.

about the bet sizing. I think the flop I talked about was 552. you're against a loose player who calls a lot of c-bets, so he's calling with a ton of hands here. if you bet smaller, he'll peel with more JT, 87, whatever hands he might've folded. since I'm planning on betting the turn, I'd prefer for him have as wide a range as possible so my turn bet works more often. I'll sometimes do this on the turn to set up a river bluff. instead of betting 3/4, I might bet 2/3 so he calls a little lighter, and either has to face a river push that's a bigger % of the pot or an 80-90% river bet that offers him the same odds but keeps it cheaper for me.

if I'm not planning on following through, I'd prefer to bet bigger to give him as good a chance as possible to fold right now. which part are we disagreeing on?

Could you expound a bit on the 99 on the 773cc flop? You choose to flat call an MP raise from the CO and one of the blinds came along as well. On the flop, you say that you are at the top of your range and thus should raise the opener's c-bet. I have a hard time coming up with a hand he stacks off with that you beat. TT-AA are in his range and are definitely stacking off, as are the rare trips or boats. I also think he pushes club overcards (AKcc, AQcc), which are you a coinflip against. I also believe that his c-bet would be slightly tighter than usual and weighed more toward good hands since the flop is 3-way with a half-stack that seems less eager to fold than most. Is there enough history/metagame going on in your opinion to make you believe he would stack off with worse and/or bluff 3-bet this flop 3-handed? Thanks in advance.

ok good question. I'm sorry that I didn't explain this well enough in the video. folding is out, so we're thinking about calling vs. raising. first let's look at some numbers. when the pfr bets, the pot is 72 and you have 463 behind.

I should've done this in the video, but we should definitely stove our hand vs. his range of hands that he'll get all-in with. notice how similar this is to deciding whether we should raise a draw. in both situations, we're raising in order to take down the dead money, with the backup of having lots of equity.

so let's figure he'll get all-in with AA-TT, 88, any Axcc, KQcc, KJcc, KTcc, QJcc, QTcc, 65cc, and he'd raise A7s, 97s, 87s, and 76s preflop, and obviously 33 and 77.

Board: 7c 7h 3c
Dead:


Board: 7c 7h 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.847% 70.85% 00.00% 43486 0.00 { TT+, 88-77, 33, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac8c, A7s, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, QcJc, QcTc, 97s, 87s, 76s, 6c5c }
Hand 1: 29.153% 29.15% 00.00% 17894 0.00 { 9c9s }


so we're not in great shape but not a huge dog either. there are 62 combinations of hands that get all-in up there, and his range is 22% (estimated HJ opening range) of all possible hands given the flop and our flop, C(47,2). that comes out to about 26%.

so if he either folds or pushes/value 3-bets, and never bluff 3-bets, we take down the $70 (after rake) 74% of the time. the other 26% we're risking 463 to win about 500 at about 30% equity. that all works out to us being +EV by about $4. you could tweak the numbers to go either way so that doesn't necessarily mean we're +EV. it just tells us that it's very close either way.

the key advantage of raising is that it allows him to bluff 3-bet, or potentially stack off lighter, and it also makes us tougher to play against in the future since we're willing to raise and stack off with a wider range than most people. this guy looks aggressive, and players like this 3-bet small and fold to a push all the time vs. my flop raises. I think that's where most of the value in is derived.

calling seems like the safe play, but I think it puts us in a pretty meh spot. we have a loose player who might overcall with anything from 43 to a 7 to QJo. if he folds, then we'll be heads up with an aggro player who will often bet any card T+. if a club comes, we'll probably be forced to play for pot control, and consequently have let him see 5 cards. a lot of HJs range has 6 outs, so there's considerable value in protecting our hand on the flop. if he happens to have a better hand, there's no guarantee we'll get away. if the board comes 2 bricks and he bets the turn and river, I'd usually call. the advantage is obviously that we can let him keep bluffing if the turn comes a Q or offsuit deuce, but I think it'll be tough to play well and I think it's pretty marginal.

so looking at all the numbers, I think it's closer to a call than I first realized, but the metagame advantages definitely have tangible value. if you want to bluff raise a lot of flops, you have to be willing to back your stack with some hands that you otherwise wouldn't. people will be less likely to make small 3-bets vs. your raises (which is a key weapon), less likely to c-bet vs. you, and sometimes even less likely to raise when you have position. if you do choose to call, you should be have a good plan of how to proceed on different turn cards, and I don't think you should be looking to fold vs. someone like this except on the worst cards or given some sort of special read.