Poker Video: No Limit Hold 'Em by Joe Tall (Mid Stakes)

Time Link to 00:38:11

needed FE to break even vs QQ+/AK

needed FE to break even vs QQ+/AK

Sweet.. ty. (Pretty sweet calculator, too.) Yeah, we went back and checked that immediately after the vid. Mike had made a little algebra mistake, and I rounded a bit too much in favor of a fold.

I don't think it's a shove, but 56% is pretty close, IMHO.

Noah, you said you're flatting a 4bet to 27bbs out of position with AQ at 135bbs deep. How shallow do you need to be before you're either 5bet shoving or folding AQ in this spot?

I've actually been doing some math and running some simulations on 4-bet spots recently. They're sorta annoying because people's play varies a lot in 4-bet pots, so your calling range is gonna end up looking very different against different people (there are even some people who I'd flat KJs against here, but I think not against stainless).

Against this particular player, who's very LAG, I'd be flatting both AQo and AQs 100 BBs deep. It looks like it's a shove around 1800ish.

Basically, the awesome thing about flatting a hand like AQ here against a guy like stainless is that it hits boards that he's going to c-bet with air--particularly A-high boards--and it whiffs the sort of low boards that he'll be much more likely to check back.

FWIW, the equity of calling actually goes up as stack sizes get shorter (until they get deep enough for us to just call a c-bet on the flop) because we've definitely got some reverse implied odds problems postflop. Of course, the equity of shoving goes up much faster.

Great vid !

Some more pre-flop questions Noah.

How do you usually play small SC (56-89s and one gapper SC) from the SB Vs a BTN reg open 100bb. In general, do you have a calling range in the SB in this spot that deep. If yes, what type and why. Same thing for hand like KTo type hands (weak brodway for the most part) 200bb.

In the 57cc, do you think that vilain have a pretty nice spot for bluff shoving the river because hero is face up (Ax a lot) and would nearly always fold to a shove anything than Tx/boat. I mean, to me i was thinking from vilain's shoes and I would probably bluff shoving here a huge % of the time. Nop ?

All,
Am I the only one who was really really annoyed by my laughter throughout the vid? I vow to not laugh at all in part two, regardless of how hilarious Joe's limit player jokes are.

Mon,
Glad you liked the vid.

SB vs. BU 100 BBs deep, I do all three things with small SCs. I 3-bet them vs. people who fold a lot to 3-bets, call vs. people who don't fold much to 3-bets but don't play great postflop, and fold to good players that I don't 3-bet against.

I'm pretty much always flatting 22-88 in those spots, and most suited aces that I'm not 3-betting. When I don't 3-bet them, I'll always call with 22+/AJ+/A8s+/KJ+/KTs+/QJs/JTs/T9s. There are a lot of other hands that I play against most players, but not people who I think play really well--AT/A2s+/K9s/QJ/QTs/JT/J9s/various suited connectors. Again, though, this is only when I don't 3-bet those hands.

KTo I either 3-bet or fold pretty much always in these positions. I guess I call it sometimes vs. huge fish.

Graffa,
Glad you liked the vid.

So here's what I'm doing. I take the amount that we have to risk, $2462, (stainless has 2142 left and we have to put in 320 more to match his bet) and subtract our equity when called, ~$1420 depending on his range (if he has QQ+, AK, our equity is 25.8% and the pot when we get it in will be $5424, so our equity would be $5424*.258 = $1399). That gives us the amount we lose on average when called, $1042.

Then I just compare that to the amount we win when he folds, $820 here. If you're comfortable with ratios, then you're done here, you're just laying yourself 820:1042 = 1:1.27 . Otherwise, to get the fold % you do 1022/(820+1022) = 56%.

This probably sounds more complicated than it is. It's definitely doable at the table in like 30ish seconds if you're comfortable with ratios, though you'll usually have to round a bit (as I obv did when I get 60%). All I'm doing is changing a semibluff into a pure bluff by replacing the amount you risk in the formula for the FE you need for a pure bluff with the average amount you lose when called, i.e. amount you're risking minus equity when called.

Chop,
I wasn't saying that calling becomes a better option relative to shoving as stacks get shorter, just that the equity of a call increases. Here's why:

We sometimes check-fold the best hand,

As we get deeper, this happens a little more often.

sometimes get stacked when we run into the top of villain's value 4betting range,

As we get deeper, this gets more expensive.

but rarely get more than 20bbs from villain postflop when we flop the best hand.

Pretty much still the same as we get deeper, until we get deep enough to induce two barrels.

So that's why EV goes down as stack sizes go up between something like 100 and 150 BBs.

Above like 150ish BBs, the equation changes because you get to the point where you can just call a c-bet.

Again, this is the equity of calling, not the equity of calling as compared to the equity of shoving. The equity of shoving goes up really quickly as stacks get shorter, so shoving becomes a better option compared to calling as stacks get shorter.

Ok thanks for clearing that up.

Hi pr0wler,
Triple barrel against some opponents would be good. Would just be a donation against this villain, though.

suavely slipping in the MTT score brags but this was before more of them. Nice one Mike Also, you are my hero obv.

tytyty sir. was hoping to ship an ftops before part II, but I guess even I'm not that huge of a lucksack

wasn't that you in the rap studio with Brian? i don't know, that's just always the way i've imagined you looking.

Me? Yes that was me w/Brian. NoahSD was in the same episode as well, he talks some heavy Connect 4 strategy!

My picture has been on this site and over the net for years: http://www.deucescracked.com/coaches/Joe-Tall