Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by WiltOnTilt (Micro/Small Stakes)

Time Link to 00:05:35

Nice vid.

You commented on starting the donk betting dynamic with this hand, but not on your reasons for starting it in the first place. Tom was cbetting 60% of the time at this point in the match, so there wasn't in theory a "necessity" to get such a dynamic going to avoid missing value. Is getting such a dynamic going a general strategy for you against players cbetting a "normal" amount?

I have toyed with trying this in the past but have found it difficult to do so while at the same time not completing messing up my flop check-call and check- raising ranges - and so generally only implement it where villian is cbetting less than approx 50% (at which point I figure that worrying about donking's impact on my check calling and check raising ranges become less important than the need to get value).

Time Link to 00:28:06

i guess you think he's more weighted towards value hands with the turn c/r as you folded, which is probs true, would you ever consider calling for the gutter/counerfiet 2 pair and to bluff shuv any heart river?? just think that heart river makes K-7 and A-7 pretty sick and even J-10 is feeling a little sick as there..just wonderd what u think Wilt?

I got owned with the leading dynamic :-/

- AJo on 8T4K5 in 3bet pot
- Turn c/r on QKxA w/ hearts was JTo all day but great to hear your analysis of what my range could/should be.
- Flop c/r on Qc5c2sKh was 6s8s.. I agree I hadn't been c/ring much but had REALLY been whiffing board runouts/flops to this point in my opinion (even after watching the video).
- 942hh raise would have been gross as I had 55 and was planning on 3bet/shoving pre.

I unfortunately played this match without a HUD or I think it would have gone a bit differently. Didn't have any clue how tight I was being preflop as I was getting frustrated a bit up to the 6s8s c/r hand when I took a deep breathe and decided to loosen up/play back a bit.

Thanks again for the opportunity to play this match Aaron. The text above says "WiltOnTilt concludes his review of a 2-tabling HU session at 100NL", but the video cuts abrupt with hints of a third. Is it in store?

Humbly adding, if anyone posts questions (most likely about what hands I had when), I'll be reading and try to answer.

the 33s hand is a weird spot and flatting i really don't like much unless the guy is pretty bad/passive post where your position can actually be more powerful than a guy that is gnna cbet and barrell you a lot. And i agree that you don't want to 4b small to induce either for obv reasons. Also at same time like 4b shipping feels so transparent to me, if i was him i'd feel very confident i could rule out the top Ax hands in your range cuz you'd want to 4b small to induce, and with AA-QQ you'd likely 4b small to induce or call pre. Perhaps those assumptions are off, i'm not super versed in the HU game

I dont think the 4bet ship 33 is that bad to be honest. You were folding a lot before and mostly 4betting instead of calling, so given that, I assume Tom would 3bet a more polarized range and call with hands like JQ KJ JT etc. Which means they cant be in his 3bet/calling range

So assuming he calls it off with something like 77+ ATs+ AJo+ , which is about 7.5% of all hands he needs to be 3betting with an entire range of 22+% (don't feel like typing out the calculations because I used excell for this) to make your ship breakeven. And since his range at the time was something like 25, I dont think it can be that bad to ship 33. Yeah sure his average 3betting % could be a bit tighter overal but at the time I think it was approaching 30%.

Or am I misinterpreting the 3bet stat now and is a 3bet% of 25 not the same as a 3bet range of 25.

the 33s hand is a weird spot and flatting i really don't like much unless the guy is pretty bad/passive post where your position can actually be more powerful than a guy that is gnna cbet and barrell you a lot. And i agree that you don't want to 4b small to induce either for obv reasons. Also at same time like 4b shipping feels so transparent to me, if i was him i'd feel very confident i could rule out the top Ax hands in your range cuz you'd want to 4b small to induce, and with AA-QQ you'd likely 4b small to induce or call pre. Perhaps those assumptions are off, i'm not super versed in the HU game

I think this is a reasonable point. It is often very transparent when people 4bet ship (especially the first time) - to the point when you can even start considering calling any 2 overs. That said, I am sure Wilt's 4bet shipping range is more balanced than that of most opponents I run in to!

Nice vid.

You commented on starting the donk betting dynamic with this hand, but not on your reasons for starting it in the first place. Tom was cbetting 60% of the time at this point in the match, so there wasn't in theory a "necessity" to get such a dynamic going to avoid missing value. Is getting such a dynamic going a general strategy for you against players cbetting a "normal" amount?

I have toyed with trying this in the past but have found it difficult to do so while at the same time not completing messing up my flop check-call and check- raising ranges - and so generally only implement it where villian is cbetting less than approx 50% (at which point I figure that worrying about donking's impact on my check calling and check raising ranges become less important than the need to get value).

Good question. There wasn't a huge necessity for starting this up other than I like to give my opponents lots of things to think about and try to stay one step ahead. I agree that 60% cbet is definitely in the "normal" range so its not something I have to start adjusting to, but much lower than 60% i'd be inclined to have a donk betting strategy/dynamic in place. My overall gameplan vs many does have more donk bets in it than most regs, but not absurdly more.

You are right though, it is tough to add in donk betting without having your other ranges get hosed up and that reason alone can be enough to advise many people to not even mess with it unless there is a dire need (like a guy cbetting < 50%). That said, it's also OK to try some things out to see how your opponent will react and you can then make a determination about whether or not you need to worry about balancing it vs your checking strategies.

i guess you think he's more weighted towards value hands with the turn c/r as you folded, which is probs true, would you ever consider calling for the gutter/counerfiet 2 pair and to bluff shuv any heart river?? just think that heart river makes K-7 and A-7 pretty sick and even J-10 is feeling a little sick as there..just wonderd what u think Wilt?

I didn't consider it, but bluffing those heart rivers could be good. Will he still fold a straight though? He probably should, and compared to most others I do like trying to move people off very strong hands it just doesn't always work out. My buddy jk3a often reminds me that just because your range smashes their hand, it doesn't mean they will fold...and he is right.

the 33s hand is a weird spot and flatting i really don't like much unless the guy is pretty bad/passive post where your position can actually be more powerful than a guy that is gnna cbet and barrell you a lot. And i agree that you don't want to 4b small to induce either for obv reasons. Also at same time like 4b shipping feels so transparent to me, if i was him i'd feel very confident i could rule out the top Ax hands in your range cuz you'd want to 4b small to induce, and with AA-QQ you'd likely 4b small to induce or call pre. Perhaps those assumptions are off, i'm not super versed in the HU game

the 33 ship pre is best reserved for guys who 3bet closer to 28-30% or so, since it is so transparent. I also balance this somewhat by shoving some hands that will dominate many of the loose calls...but again, it was probably not a fist-pump ship given tom's current 3betting %

I dont think the 4bet ship 33 is that bad to be honest. You were folding a lot before and mostly 4betting instead of calling, so given that, I assume Tom would 3bet a more polarized range and call with hands like JQ KJ JT etc. Which means they cant be in his 3bet/calling range

So assuming he calls it off with something like 77+ ATs+ AJo+ , which is about 7.5% of all hands he needs to be 3betting with an entire range of 22+% (don't feel like typing out the calculations because I used excell for this) to make your ship breakeven. And since his range at the time was something like 25, I dont think it can be that bad to ship 33. Yeah sure his average 3betting % could be a bit tighter overal but at the time I think it was approaching 30%.

Or am I misinterpreting the 3bet stat now and is a 3bet% of 25 not the same as a 3bet range of 25.

Assuming I was opening 100% or very close to 100%, his 3bet % should be about the same as his 3bet range. The assumptions of his calling range is tough. Partially it depends on if he was 3betting all the better pocket pairs (can't remember) and whether or not he's calling with hands like KQ/KJ/9Ts etc. I've definitely 3bet/called hands like 9Ts to the first 4bet shove before... I would guess Tom is folding many of these hands though, but I don't know for sure!

I got owned with the leading dynamic :-/

- AJo on 8T4K5 in 3bet pot
- Turn c/r on QKxA w/ hearts was JTo all day but great to hear your analysis of what my range could/should be.
- Flop c/r on Qc5c2sKh was 6s8s.. I agree I hadn't been c/ring much but had REALLY been whiffing board runouts/flops to this point in my opinion (even after watching the video).
- 942hh raise would have been gross as I had 55 and was planning on 3bet/shoving pre.

I unfortunately played this match without a HUD or I think it would have gone a bit differently. Didn't have any clue how tight I was being preflop as I was getting frustrated a bit up to the 6s8s c/r hand when I took a deep breathe and decided to loosen up/play back a bit.

Thanks again for the opportunity to play this match Aaron. The text above says "WiltOnTilt concludes his review of a 2-tabling HU session at 100NL", but the video cuts abrupt with hints of a third. Is it in store?

Humbly adding, if anyone posts questions (most likely about what hands I had when), I'll be reading and try to answer.

Hey Tom, some issues came up and it's not looking like part 3 will be released. Sorry man

Assuming I was opening 100% or very close to 100%, his 3bet % should be about the same as his 3bet range. The assumptions of his calling range is tough. Partially it depends on if he was 3betting all the better pocket pairs (can't remember) and whether or not he's calling with hands like KQ/KJ/9Ts etc. I've definitely 3bet/called hands like 9Ts to the first 4bet shove before... I would guess Tom is folding many of these hands though, but I don't know for sure!

So i'm assuming you 3bet called to the first 4bet shove since you felt pretty strongly he was shoving with small pairs there often or perhaps even like a 78 or 98 suited hand perhaps and never those stronger hands like i mentioned in my previous post? Was 3b calling w Ts9s like a pretty rare occurrence or something that occurs somewhat often for a HU reg?

Somewhat rare occurrence. It happened vs a guy I respect his game and it just seemed like a reasonable spot for him to 4bet ship a small pocket pair. Of course it helps to have seen them 4bet small with hands like AQ and 88 etc.

After the dynamic is set though it's up to the 4bettor to ensure he can show up with more than just the small pairs when 4b shoving

Assuming I was opening 100% or very close to 100%, his 3bet % should be about the same as his 3bet range.

Why would his 3bet % be different than his 3bet range if you weren't opening 100% of buttons?

Why would his 3bet % be different than his 3bet range if you weren't opening 100% of buttons?

errr.. hmm... actually you are right, it shouldn't change based on the number of buttons I'm opening because 3bet% is just how often they 3bet divided by the opportunities they have to 3bet. So if you only opened 2 buttons and they 3bet once, it would be 50%.

I guess the only way my steal is connected to their 3bet percentage is that their 3bet stat would converge faster the more buttons I open (and presumably he'd 3bet me wider)

Time Link to 00:18:06

After we check turn and the 8 pairs on the river, can't we bluff the river? If we bet river, I think our hand looks a lot like gut shots that turned sd value or some middle pair that can now vb thi on the river with the board pairing (ie. 6-x, 5-5, or some 4-x with a redraw we bet flop with). When he peels the flop and doesn't bet the turn, I think his hand looks like a lot of a-x, 5-5 or marginal sd hand we can bluff him off. He surely doesn't have much better very often. Does that make sense? What do you think?

After we check turn and the 8 pairs on the river, can't we bluff the river? If we bet river, I think our hand looks a lot like gut shots that turned sd value or some middle pair that can now vb thi on the river with the board pairing (ie. 6-x, 5-5, or some 4-x with a redraw we bet flop with). When he peels the flop and doesn't bet the turn, I think his hand looks like a lot of a-x, 5-5 or marginal sd hand we can bluff him off. He surely doesn't have much better very often. Does that make sense? What do you think?

I think you make some valid points about what his hand range is, i'm just not quite as convinced as you that he folds it. I wouldn't blame you for trying it. I had been donk betting a decent amount, but I can't recall at this point in the match how much I had been caught at showdown, so I'm not sure what he expects my range to be. The less info he has on my donking range, the more i think he'd just click call with any showdown value to see what I have. I do agree w/ you he will have like 55 or worse a lot here (of course he can have a fair number of 6x hands as well). A bluff could be good, albeit thin. Your thinking is definitely on the right track though, nice job.

about the A,10 hand that you folded on the turn. Did you consider the timing? He checked pretty quickly both streets, which usually makes me suspicious. I was under the impression from the start of the match that he was taking his time while checking some value or betting for value. A thinking player.
Also some people do that with a weaker ace for protection.
I would not call and ship any heart,( presuming that he will bet the river as well) because he hasn't shown that he was able to fold a straight here for example ( although I'm sure he's a good reg and is able to do so), but also the pot odds in this case wouldnt alowe him to do so.
So as I understood, you were worried about an overbet on the river if you call the turn. What do you think about a turn min 4bet? Do you think he would ship in the flush draws and K7 for example?

about the A,10 hand that you folded on the turn. Did you consider the timing? He checked pretty quickly both streets, which usually makes me suspicious. I was under the impression from the start of the match that he was taking his time while checking some value or betting for value. A thinking player.
Also some people do that with a weaker ace for protection.
I would not call and ship any heart,( presuming that he will bet the river as well) because he hasn't shown that he was able to fold a straight here for example ( although I'm sure he's a good reg and is able to do so), but also the pot odds in this case wouldnt alowe him to do so.
So as I understood, you were worried about an overbet on the river if you call the turn. What do you think about a turn min 4bet? Do you think he would ship in the flush draws and K7 for example?

sorry do you have a timestamp?

timestamp? Sorry not a native spaker , could you explain? its in the 28th minute of the match, if thats what you mean.
a and about the turn min 4bet, if he ships it in you fold of course. Do you think this line is ridiculous?

about the A,10 hand that you folded on the turn. Did you consider the timing? He checked pretty quickly both streets, which usually makes me suspicious. I was under the impression from the start of the match that he was taking his time while checking some value or betting for value. A thinking player.
Also some people do that with a weaker ace for protection.
I would not call and ship any heart,( presuming that he will bet the river as well) because he hasn't shown that he was able to fold a straight here for example ( although I'm sure he's a good reg and is able to do so), but also the pot odds in this case wouldnt alowe him to do so.
So as I understood, you were worried about an overbet on the river if you call the turn. What do you think about a turn min 4bet? Do you think he would ship in the flush draws and K7 for example?

I didn't take the timing into consideration, but you bring up a good point there.

I strongly disagree that people are checkraising that turn as a standard (or even as a non-standard) with a worse Ax here for value or protection. If they want to protect their hand, they just lead the turn imo. I have seen some very tough players go for value c/r here with worse than AT here, but I did not expect this in this match and I would not expect it from the run of the mill 10/20nl hu pro either.

Calling to turn my hand into a bluff on a heart is a good/interesting idea, but the pot odds for doing so aren't that great and I'm not sure if he would fold a straight. It seems like a lot of assumptions to hope for that it works out correctly to maybe be +EV.

If I 3bet the turn, I'm not sure what he would do with K7. I'm assuming he would not ship flush draws, but if we think he has flush draws in his range we probably shouldn't be calling to turn our hand into a bluff on river hearts.

Good thoughts though. Even though I disagree with some of the stuff you are saying, I like to see you thinking creatively.

First of all thank you for your prompt reply. I feel obligated to elaborate on what I was trying to say and I do not expect an answer, but if you feel you need to add sth or comment I would be very happy and grateful

1st. turn min 4bet might me theoratically wrong, but gives us a lot of information. The board is such that he might have a flush draw he's raising you with, he might have a pair and a gutr for example J7 suited or 10,7 suited or he might have the nuts. Calling the turn is probably theoretically correct, but leaves you in the dark on the river bluff (which I think will come almost 100% on this board) on practically any card.
On the other hand if we reraise him to ,say, 25, I believe the only hand he'd be shoving in here is the nuts (considering the way the match has developed so far) so we can easily fold. A mixture of information, protection and value reraise .

2nd I agree that a weaker ace would not reraise here, but...if the flop was 7,K,A and you checked the flop behind, then, yes, he would bet the turn with an ace almost always. But some people simply don't donk bet or they do so very seldomly, so, I believe these people would check call this card (ace on the turn) as a standard. Check raise probably not, I agree, but might not be such a bad move, after all you folded A,10 !

3rd somebody proposed this idea (in the previous comments) about calling his turn raise and bluffing any flush card on the river. I wanted to stress out I thought that was wrong from several reasons. You aren't too deep, so with a straight, he would click call almost always. I feel you would need a deeper stack to be able to put some serious pressure on him. And also at low stakes, this never works.

4th his timing is the main factor which makes me want to continue with the hand, because I think it's one of the most important tells in online hu matches.

Time Link to 00:19:45

When you donk bet here, what do you do if you get raised? You call and try to hit? Your hand is pretty face up though, and its hard to get value anymore. I understand that he hasnt raised your donk bets which is a good argument to go for it. I think check-raising would be better here though, cos you havent done it very much, and you can still hit and put pressure if you get called.

Time Link to 00:22:46

T2 with the 98 - what do you think about betting the river bigger like close to full pot to represent a more polarized range? Like you said, it's pretty unlikely that either of you have a flush, so he may have a hard time coming up with a value hand that makes sense for you to pot the river with and look you up lighter with any bluff catcher.

thoughts?

T2 with the 98 - what do you think about betting the river bigger like close to full pot to represent a more polarized range? Like you said, it's pretty unlikely that either of you have a flush, so he may have a hard time coming up with a value hand that makes sense for you to pot the river with and look you up lighter with any bluff catcher.

thoughts?

Seems reasonable, i like it even better if i got a bigger kicker

Time Link to 00:44:26

Aaron, I noticed that your standard flop bet sizing in single raised pots both for cbets in position and donk bets out of position is bigger than a lot of standards - $5 into $5.70. Seems like you give yourself a worse price on your bluffs and hang a lot of dead money out there if he were to start attacking your cbets/donk bets. That said, I'm sure you have good reasons for making it bigger, so can you expand on what some of those reasons might be?

Aaron, I noticed that your standard flop bet sizing in single raised pots both for cbets in position and donk bets out of position is bigger than a lot of standards - $5 into $5.70. Seems like you give yourself a worse price on your bluffs and hang a lot of dead money out there if he were to start attacking your cbets/donk bets. That said, I'm sure you have good reasons for making it bigger, so can you expand on what some of those reasons might be?

mostly it has to do with making better decisions on average, as a result, inflating the pot when possible.

There are certain situations where i'm very concerned with the price i lay myself on bluffs. One of the primary examples is in 3bet pots cbetting (both price on bluff and future playability).

In single raised pots though, there is plenty of stack left to play and situations come up often where I feel like I'll have an edge (2-3 barreling, thin value bets, protection bets, anticipation of rebluffs, etc). In cases such as these, with more stack yet to play with, I like making bigger bet sizes on average vs players I think I can out maneuver. Essentially, it's an exploitative adjustment because as you mention, I'm risking more than I might have to on any single hand, but over the course of a match where I expect to have an edge on decision making across all streets, it's more profitable to make the pots bigger.

That said, there are certainly matches I play where I feel like I'm getting owned, or the guy is checkraising too much, or the guy is simply folding to cbets too much or some other tendency where it makes it significantly better to give myself a better price on the flop. Then, I'll make the adjustment to size the bet down as well as strengthen my betting range. Until I feel the need to make those types of adjustments though, I'd simply rather set up the turn and river pot size to be bigger to maximize value bets and bluffs.

BTW: I want to make it very clear, none of that is in any way a negative reflection on Tom... it's my default for how I start all matches.

Time Link to 00:12:49

Here with the pocket 3's when you shove,
I may misunderstand this but obviously you want him to fold with these small pairs and you expect to have fold equity. However aren't you risking way too much? You are risking about 90 dollars to win 13 dollars in the pot and when called you are at best coin flipping, as you know, and he may be doing it more with bigger pairs (like he has here). Don't you think those factors make it the wrong move? Isn't it a lot more common to do something like this when there is a lot more in the pot to win or do I have this all wrong?

Also since he has been folding to the majority of your 4bets don't you think that if you make a small 4-bet and he does anything BUT fold that this allows you to define his range a lot more and make the right move accordingly?

Time Link to 00:43:58

Lol,
That is really interesting with the 3-bet on the left table that prompted you to fold. Good Catch if that's what he was doing. Did you ever find out if he had a big hand on the right table?

Here with the pocket 3's when you shove,
I may misunderstand this but obviously you want him to fold with these small pairs and you expect to have fold equity. However aren't you risking way too much? You are risking about 90 dollars to win 13 dollars in the pot and when called you are at best coin flipping, as you know, and he may be doing it more with bigger pairs (like he has here). Don't you think those factors make it the wrong move? Isn't it a lot more common to do something like this when there is a lot more in the pot to win or do I have this all wrong?

Also since he has been folding to the majority of your 4bets don't you think that if you make a small 4-bet and he does anything BUT fold that this allows you to define his range a lot more and make the right move accordingly?

It's all about the frequency with which he 3bets, how many bigger pairs he 3bets, and what his standards are for calling with overcards. All I can say is bust out pokerstove and do some math I'll let you know though from past experience making some standard assumptions, you should look for a guy who isn't 3betting with pocket pairs like 77/88 preflop and is 3betting something like 30% and you should be in good shape to jam here.

Lol,
That is really interesting with the 3-bet on the left table that prompted you to fold. Good Catch if that's what he was doing. Did you ever find out if he had a big hand on the right table?

I don't think I found out, maybe tom will remember if he sees this question.

That makes sense.
I give you a lot of credit for fast responses. Not everyone replies in a timely manor so thank you