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Poker Video: Limit Hold'Em by Entity (Mid Stakes)

look at me! im famous!

look at me! im famous!

confirm

lol, LHE 5/10 is far from being high stakes

lol, LHE 5/10 is far from being high stakes

agree; this is just how DC classifies it i think

agree; this is just how DC classifies it i think

It should be mid, not high. I'll change it in the backend and let Rusty know.

Rob

Time Link to 00:09:56

Hey guys, I'm a little bit leery about how much stats have been thrown around so far in the video. The 55/33 guy has been mentioned a few times and it looks like that's over ~150 hands. Okay, obviously he's not going to be an uber-nit and we can defend a bit more liberally against him.

But here l_q mentions that the cold caller on the upper right 3-bets 7% and thus can't hold a super premium. I'd be VERY hesitant about drawing a conclusion like that over only ~60 some hands. It's just not enough hands, especially in full ring. I mean, how many opportunities do you think he's had to 3b over that many hands?

Also, if I were going to really analyze his range here I'd I'd also take a look at his cold call stat, which doesn't seem to be on your primary HUD. Although again, given the number of hands I wouldn't necessarily draw any firm conclusions.

As this is FR we should be aware of the different range of player types. For example, he might actually cold call his super premiums. While still somewhat rare in FR, there are WAY more of those types of guys in FR than someone coming from a HUHU/6M background may expect or be accustomed to seeing.

Hey guys, I'm a little bit leery about how much stats have been thrown around so far in the video. The 55/33 guy has been mentioned a few times and it looks like that's over ~150 hands. Okay, obviously he's not going to be an uber-nit and we can defend a bit more liberally against him.

But here l_q mentions that the cold caller on the upper right 3-bets 7% and thus can't hold a super premium. I'd be VERY hesitant about drawing a conclusion like that over only ~60 some hands. It's just not enough hands, especially in full ring. I mean, how many opportunities do you think he's had to 3b over that many hands?

Also, if I were going to really analyze his range here I'd I'd also take a look at his cold call stat, which doesn't seem to be on your primary HUD. Although again, given the number of hands I wouldn't necessarily draw any firm conclusions.

As this is FR we should be aware of the different range of player types. For example, he might actually cold call his super premiums. While still somewhat rare in FR, there are WAY more of those types of guys in FR than someone coming from a HUHU/6M background may expect or be accustomed to seeing.

I definitely think this is a good point, though the biggest thing that I was trying to point out that regardless of how wide we expect his 3-betting range to be that we aren't in great shape when we get raised on this flop. It's a tough spot regardless though - like I said, there aren't a ton of options that are super appealing. I agree that we're interpreting stats with a very small sample size, but it's much better to take some basic assumptions about his 3-betting range based on the stats we have through 60 hands than to ignore those stats entirely.

I guess this is my way of saying that we're in an ugly spot here and we have to use whatever information is at our disposal, even though we're nowhere near 100% certain.

Rob

Time Link to 00:56:30

Great point about how winning 1.5 BB post flop might just be the maximum for this hand (the KQo hand on the bottom right). I know I have a tendency to assume something closer to 3-ish BB is the max in all spots, so 1.5 can feel like I messed up. But you present a very compelling argument that we might win 0.5-1 BB an awful lot here, and from that perspective 1.5 BB is a lot.

lol, LHE 5/10 is far from being high stakes

Congratulations on making two posts in three years!

Rob: this question popped up in my mind. In the video you mention that against someone who folds the blinds 50% or more of the time we should be stealing with any two. Could you explain the reasoning behind this? I do it (mainly because those folks are usually very tight/fit or fold) but I've never put much thought into the mathematics and hard reasoning behind the decision.

Rob: this question popped up in my mind. In the video you mention that against someone who folds the blinds 50% or more of the time we should be stealing with any two. Could you explain the reasoning behind this? I do it (mainly because those folks are usually very tight/fit or fold) but I've never put much thought into the mathematics and hard reasoning behind the decision.

If you could find the exact timestamp, I could give you a better answer, but in general it's just a pure math sort of statement - I'm not sure but I'm assuming we're talking about me being in the SB. So with me in the SB, I'm risking 1.5SB to win the 1.5SB that is in the pot - say, at $5/10, I'd be risking $7.50 to win the existing $7.50 in the pot.

So if he folds 50% of the time, I lose $7.50x50% = $3.75 and I win $7.50x50%= $3.75, breaking even. When you add in that when you are called, you'll always have equity in the pot, you're in a good spot.

Rob

what about in games like Pokerstars which have a 1/3 blind structure?

what about in games like Pokerstars which have a 1/3 blind structure?

You're risking 5 to win 4 so if BB folds more than ~44% of the time you show an immediate profit.

MATH HAS SPOKEN!

You're risking 5 to win 4 so if BB folds more than ~44% of the time you show an immediate profit.

MATH HAS SPOKEN!

i think it works the opposite way b/c you have to risk more.
in a 2/3 structure it would be 44%, but in a 1/3 it would be 56%?

i think it works the opposite way b/c you have to risk more.
in a 2/3 structure it would be 44%, but in a 1/3 it would be 56%?

lol of course. I'm so unaccustomed the the amount you're risking being larger than the reward that I just automatically inverted it in my head despite saying the first part of the sentence correctly.

You're getting 4:5 and thus if he folds 5/(4+5) = 5/9 ~ 55.5% you're showing an immediate profit.

MATH, please edit my first post.