NoahSD continues to captain the Cracked Pearl. This week he plays 4 tables of $5/10 NLHE.
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Was that an autopilot fold BvB with gutty + BDFD + 2 overs vs a single cbet? I found that hand more interesting than the one you talk about (table 3), and right when I was debating whether floating or raising would be better you clicked fold.
Yeah, sorry about that.
Yeah, I think that spot's pretty close, but basically I just think these boards are bad to float on in general because a lot of people are checking all their air on these boards. I don't specifically know that this guy is doing that, but I think a random with his not-totally-fishy stats over a small sample probably checks air here something like 40% of the time. So that leaves him with a fairly strong range that's not c/fing the turn much or folding to a raise much.
It might actually be a call because his bet sizing shifts his range more towards air/pair + draw/super marginal stuff since lots of people are betting bigger with something like TP no draw/overpair/set. But I'm not really sure how strong that effect is.
So, yeah, I think it's pretty close.
I don't see why you would continue to open up hands like T8o and the like bvb vs bttech when he is going to continually 3bet you, bluff raise you, call down lite, etc. He was obv using his position very well against you, and tightening up your range would've saved u some bb's imo.
First of all, wanna say i really enjoyed this vid, and the series so far. Thx for that.
I have one question regarding 2nd barreling. You didnt 2nd barrel bluf a single time when bad turncards to barrel fell. You gave up most. The times you did 2nd barrel bad turncards were clear valuebets.
Do you ever bluf in those spots and what would be an optimal line in those situations to compensate and balance?
Like, c/raising bad barrel cards for value, only 2nd barrel to protect vulnerable hands, c/raise bluf etc.
Sklelce + Aaron,
Yeah. I agree that opening T8o was bad there. Sometimes (pretty often I guess ) I make mistakes.
Ty. You're awesome.
In general, I'm really not concerned with balancing my range. If I think people aren't folding enough to make a bluff profitable, I won't bluff.
If I don't think my opponents are folding much to a bet in a certain spot, then why would I bluff? How does balancing earn me money?
I will definitely bluff in non-obvious spots, but only because I think my opponent will fold often enough to make it good. There are lots of examples of stuff like that in my vids, especially in my rewind vids. Lemme know if you'd like me to dig up an example.
Sorry it took awhile to figure out what happened with the audio. It was in NoahSD's recording directly so the best I could do is halfway through the video resync it so the rest plays near perfect. I have uploaded new copies of mp4 and wmv. Enjoy.
Hey Noah, can you talk a little more about the thought process here? Is it basically that we have too much equity to fold and given such a big pot (and shallow stacks behind) we don't stand to gain from playing the river, which only leaves shoving as an option?
Is your default assumption that a decent aggressive opponent like this will b/c all sets on turn? Do you think he's valuebetting much thinner than that? Do you think being 3-way alters the ranges/situation/decision a lot?
In the 66 hand, I definitely don't think he bets sets on the turn very often.
The first thing you said pretty much nailed it. Basically, I'm considering whether letting us see the river before deciding whether or not to get it in helps Bt more or helps me more. There's not a huge difference between calling and shipping, so it's no big deal either way. If I call instead of shipping, here's what happens differently:
If he has 8x: On 11 scare-card rivers (a 3 or non-boardpairing clubs non-8 clubs), I save 570. On 4 and 5, I probably almost never get stacks in, so I lose 570. On the other 8 board-pairing rivers, I probably only stack him like 1/3 of the time, so I miss out on like 380. On other cards nothing changes. So, when he has 8x, calling is slightly better, but only by (11*570-2*570-8*380)/46 = ~$45.
If he has clubs: I lose the 1032 pot on the 6 non-8 non-boardpairing clubs. On 8c I lose the pot + my stack, 1602. On the two board-pairing clubs I gain 570. If we say he bluffs a 3 half of the time, then I lose 516 on those 3 rivers. On 3 non-club river 8s, I lose half the pot for another 516. If he bluffs one of the 21 blank rivers like 1/3 of the time, then we gain 190 from when he has clubs on those rivers. So when he has clubs, shoving is better than calling by (6*1032+1602+2*516+3*516-21*190)/46 = ~139.
So already if he has clubs 1/4 of the time and an 8 3/4 of the time, shipping is better than calling. That's before considering that he plays profitably against me with the 9x and pure air in his range and the small consideration of shutting coolhand out of the pot.
Does that make sense?
In the AJo hand I hate the idea of a delayed c-bet. I think that when I check back, I look like I either have air or something like JJ/TJs/89s or whatever. That really doesn't help me much as it means I have no implied on my outs, I end up getting bluffed off my hand by hands that would've folded to a c-bet, and if he decides that I have air a lot, I sometimes end up getting hero called by 88/77 that would've folded to a c-bet.
Nice vid Noah even if you can't win a pot it look's like
I see that you insta fold K5s on the CO, standard you think ?
Also vs Bttech, you def AQ OTB vs his SB 3bet. On a Kxx flop you fold to his less than mi-pot bet without thinking twice about it. I'm shocked. How it could be such an easy fold ? Based on his pre flop 3betting range, Cbetting range etc etc.. You think his never bluffing, never gives up and we don't have SD value ? Need toughts plz.
Kind off same spot where you insta fold on BvB Khigh + BDFD and position on a Ahigh dry board. it's wow to me.
And what his your 3bet stats OTB,CO,SB and BB plz.
Very good video. I have learned a lot from your videos! Especially the rewind videos are the nuts imo. I have watched and enjoyed all of them. I have tried to work a lot with doing the same kind of calculations that you do in the rewind videos.
I have just posted a hand with some calculations in the forum:
I would love to here if I am using the correct method / doing the calculations correct. I understand that it of course is not possible for you to tell me if my estimation of villains range is correct. But I'am curious to know I am counting the combinations correct, and if I am doing the math correct.
You can see the hand/calcs here:
Have a nice day
Glad you liked the vid. Yeah.. this vid and the last one cost me some money .
I've gone back and forth with hands like K5s in the CO. Right now I usually fold, but like with most closish preflop decisions, I'm not sure.
In the future, when you comment on specific hands in a video, please give a timestamp or use the "comment from timeline" feature in the flash player. Makes my life much easier.
This hand http://www.deucescracked.com/videos/2621-Episode-Four?seek=3241 happened after that T8o hand where he made that ridic river call against me. So after that hand, I'm very hesitant to float him or to raise his c-bets in spots where I can't rep much. So I definitely would mess around on that board vs. a lot of players, but not one who I think is just trying to win every pot vs. me.
I can't find the K-high hand you're talking about. Gimme a timestamp and I'll let you know.
On the flop in the 66 hand, I have 8 almost perfect outs, 2 outs that are usually good, and the best hand maybe 20% of hte time or so. Sure I have terrible implied odds, but getting 2.5:1 I just can't fold with that much equity.
On the turn, I think it's pretty clear that a call is profitable as I'm getting slightly less than correct direct odds to call if he has 8x and he doesn't always have 8x and I have some implied. So call > fold. Then I think I gave a pretty good argument for shove > call in my previous post. So I think shove > call > fold, though they're all fairly close together.
Glad you like my vids. I responded to your post.
Considering you're UTG vs MP, do you really think Bttech has a lot of 7's and 6's(plus he's probably raising some of those on the turn) in his range?
Then on the river it seems that the 12 combos of 88 and 99 are a very big portion of his range, doesn't that make it a river bet?
And if you still decide to check/fold are you completely sure he's not value betting those against your ace or king high FD's?
Don't hesitate to destroy my assumptions if you think they're wrong.
I think what I said in the vid is that he has 7x/6x/88/99 really often. I definitely think that's true, and I'd def expect him to fold 88/99 to a bet and to check them back if checked to.
He'd be pretty crazy to bet 88/99 for value on the river because I'm like never calling with A-high. There's a chance he decides to turn those into a bluff, but people consider that so really (even people as aggro as this villain) and even if he does consider it, he'd still have to decide that it's good and then pull the trigger. So I think he probably bets 88/99 when checked to like 10% of the time and maybe calls a bet with them like 30% of the time or so.
Actually, I think a cool option would be to bet like 150 or something.
I think that note is really important. Probably the main use that I have for it is avoiding river c/rs for value, since if he's checking back some ridiculously strong hands I obv can't do that much.
It does also polarize river ranges a lot, which is great to know when I have a bluff catcher (and makes bluff catcher a much broader category, too). So in general I'm going to end up calling river bets a lot lighter vs. someone with that note.
When it's as extreme as that hand I noted (checking back JJ on a J65cccQ3 board with no indication that villain had a flush), it also just suggests that the guy's probably not thinking and maybe playing scared. So that's obv good to know in general.
I had two TT hands at the same time, so I guess I'll just explain both.
Top left: Preflop is fairly close, and whatever. I think 3-bet is probably best, but no big deal either way. I try to see more flops when making a vid, which is prob why I called.
On the flop, I checked my notes and saw that he raised pre and gave up a few times. People tend to be really really consistent with what they choose not to c-bet, so I think he has air a lot, so I might as well check and hope to induce a bluff on the turn. Once he doesn't bet the turn, I think it's really unlikely that he'll bet the river with air and if he has air, it's very unlikely that he improves enough for me to get any money on the river, so I might as well bet and hope he checked twice with TJ/QJ/Ax (which wouldn't be ridiculous at all, but pretty unlikely given my note).
Preflop's pretty standard. 4-betting is sorta an option, but TT doesn't really play well vs. his shipping range anyway unless he's shipping stuff like A9/99 which would be impressive even for him (if he ships like KQ/AJ that's not really very helpful).
On the flop I think calling is the only option. If I raise, I get it in vs. some worse hands, but I'm still way behind his range, and villain has been so aggro that I wouldn't be surprised if he barreled air even on a board like this.
On the turn, I'm not folding because I just have way too much equity against his range. If I just call, I think that given stack sizes I almost never induce a bet from worse on a blank river (he won't expect to have fold equity with air, and he won't value bet worse). So by calling, all I do is give him a freeroll with his worse hands, so I ship.