joe, don't you have a live hand in both directions here? You have outs, maybe the best hand, and a live low + pair draw. I don't know, but folding there with one card to come seems really nitty. Even if you are behind, you have so many cards to catch up. Help me. I think i am making big mistakes at times.
Our opponent raises 3rd xx7 vs my (43)6 I elect to just call. (he either has a low hand or junk, if I jam and miss I tie myself to the pot when I my equity is crushed on 4th.)
I 'hit'(43)63 and he goes xx72, he bets, I raise he calls. I hit again (43)632 and he hits an xx72A and he leads, right now I have his range at:
ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
4d3d|6s3c2d 52.35% (196,637 scoops, 310,800 wins hi, 11 ties hi, 267,524 wins lo, 682 ties lo)
*s*s, 22-AA, A*, LL|7h2sAs 47.65% (168,563 scoops, 289,189 wins hi, 11 ties hi, 193,165 wins lo, 682 ties lo)
Then I brick 6th and he hits a card I need:
ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
4d3d|6s3c2dQc 30.69% (73,976 scoops, 212,330 wins hi, 0 ties hi, 127,149 wins lo, 0 ties lo)
*s*s, 22-AA, A*, LL|7h2sAs5h 69.31% (305,755 scoops, 387,670 wins hi, 0 ties hi, 346,814 wins lo, 0 ties lo)
That's my overall equity with one card to come and giving him a very wide range.
If I cut out the suited-hands and the pairs (more likely holding):
ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
4d3d|6s3c2dQc 28.85% (62,565 scoops, 205,819 wins hi, 0 ties hi, 121,021 wins lo, 0 ties lo)
A*, LL|7h2sAs5h 71.15% (316,378 scoops, 394,181 wins hi, 0 ties hi, 371,973 wins lo, 0 ties lo)
Going to say it's a tight but good fold, my RIO are high. (calling poorly on the end when I make a weak-naked low)